NFL Inside the Numbers Week 6

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers by @FairwayJay

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games in my weekly NFL Inside the Numbers article. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners. Every week during the NFL season I provide my thoughts and insight on my NFL Inside the Numbers column to assist you in your pursuit of profit. Also, listen to my NFL Podcast each week where I provide insight and analysis into the upcoming Sunday games.

NFL Inside the Numbers Week 6 Stats of Notes.

Week 6 NFL Favorites went 12-3 straight-up (SU) and 7-8 ATS against the spread (ATS), and are now 64-28 SU and 47-43-2 ATS year to date.  I graded the Steelers as a favorite and winner in week 6 over the Jets and the Colts as a favorite loser Monday night. Over/under totals were 9-6 and now 47-44 YTD.   The Falcons and Dolphins had a bye week 6.

Betting and beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Turnovers will always have an impact on NFL games and especially against the spread (ATS), as I’ve tracked the impact of 3 or more turnovers for over a decade along with a 2-turnover differential advantage or disadvantage.  After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation.  The Giants (3-0) and Texans (4-0) were this week’s big turnover differential losers. Teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column are now 14-0 SU and 13-1 ATS this season. Teams that were +2 in the turnover column in week 6 went 4-0 ATS (Chiefs, Panthers, Steelers, 49ers).

Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent had a very rare losing week going 3-6 ATS in week 5.  For the season, teams with at least a 30 yard rushing advantage in a game are 39-22 ATS. We discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners. For over a decade, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread approx. 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average.

Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point-of-attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, weather and more.

Week 6 big ground gainers in rushing included the Redskins (216 rush yds/33 attempts) in defeat, Bengals (165/41 – following 162/39 last week), Texans (153/30) in defeat, Seahawks (151/33), 49ers (149/38), Chargers (147/37), Patriots (141/35) and Eagles (138/33).  These teams went 4-4 ATS.  Note the Packers had a 140-47 rush advantage over the Ravens in a 19-17 win/no cover.

The Ravens (47 rush yds/22 attempts), Cowboys (48/19), Titans (66/20) and Vikings (75/13) struggled to get their running game going.   While the game flow, situations and score can impact a team’s game plan and use of the running game,  it’s proven over and over, season after season that teams who fail to commit to the running game or lack consistency in the ability to run the ball and control the ball, clock and chains are more often on the losing side of the ledger, both SU and ATS.

Teams that had strong offensive showings in total net yards and efficient yards per play (yppl) in victory were the Bengals (502/6.0), Packers (455/7.0), Eagles (434/6.7) and Seahawks (408/6.3).  The NFL team average yards per play is approx. 5.4. Inefficient offensive teams in defeat included the Titans (237/4.6) and Colts (267/48 plays).  The Chiefs managed just 239 yards at 3.9 yppl in their 24-7 win over the Raiders, who had 348 yards but just 4.8 yards per play as QB Prior struggled.

We’ll review more NFL Inside the Numbers stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis. Listen to my NFL Podcast posted early each week on Tuesday’s for more insight, analysis and sports betting information.

Stay on Course…
@FairwayJay

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