NFL Inside The Numbers Week 5

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers Week 5

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners.  Each week we analyze the information and try to position our picks for success based on match-up advantages, and the running game and/or ability to stop the run is another way to isolate NFL point spread winners.

Week Here are some Week 5 stats of note.

Week 5 NFL favorites went 12-3 SU and 8-7 ATS and are now 48-28 SU and 36-40 ATS this season.  Totals went 7-8 O/U and there were 706 points scored in 15 games for an average of 47 PPG. I graded the NYG/ATL game under the total and over/unders are now 40-36 this season with average scoring at 46.5 PPG.

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Good fortune in the turnover column helps too. After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation.  This season, teams that are +3 or greater in the turnover column in a game are 18-0 SU/ATS.

Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent (at least 30 yards) went 7-2 ATS in Week 5. We’ll discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners. For over a decade, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread approx. 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average.

Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point of attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, weather and more.  This year we have more work to do to improve our point spread prognosis, but improvement is expected with more data and stats to digest.

Week 5 big ground gainers in rushing included the Seahawks ( 225 rush yards/36 carries ), Patriots ( 220/46 ), Texans ( 176/31 ), Browns ( 175/36 ), 49ers ( 171/40 ), Chargers ( 162/40 ) and Packers ( 156/28 ).  These teams went 6-1 SU/ATS and I graded the 49ers as a ATS loss.

The Redskins ( 32/17 ), Cardinals ( 37/19 ), Bills ( 49/22 ), Jaguars ( 56/15 ), Buccaneers ( 66/21 ), Lions ( 69/20 ), Bengals ( 79/18 ),  Bears ( 85/22 ), Ravens ( 9/15 ) and Jets ( 91/21 ) all struggled to get their running game going and it’s important to pay attention to offensive line and defensive injuries that effect weekly match-ups and personnel losses.

Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in Week 5 victories were the Broncos ( 568 yards/7.5 yards per play ), Saints ( 511/5.9 ), Patriots ( 505/6.2 ), Browns ( 460/6.2 ), Cowboys ( 456/6.1 ), Chargers ( 439/6.2 ) and Seahawks ( 403/6.4 ).   Inefficient offensive teams included the NY Jets ( 151/2.8 ), Cardinals ( 215/3.8 ), Jaguars ( 243/4.7 ), Lions ( 263/4.6 ), Ravens ( 287/5.0 ) and Vikings ( 299/4.0).  The league average is approximately 5.4 yards-per-play.

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis.

Stay on Course…

@FairwayJay