NFL Inside the Numbers – Week 5
Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers
by @FairwayJay
Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games in my weekly NFL Inside the Numbers article. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners. Every week during the NFL season I provide my thoughts and insight on my NFL Inside the Numbers column to assist you in your pursuit of profit. Also, listen to my NFL Podcast each week where I provide insight and analysis into the upcoming Sunday games.
NFL Inside the Numbers Week 5 Stats of Note.
Week 5 NFL Favorites went 8-6 straight-up (SU) and 7-7 ATS against the spread (ATS), and are now 52-25 SU and 40-35-2 ATS year to date. I graded the Saints as a favorite and winner in week 5. Over/under totals were 7-7 and now 38-38 YTD. The Vikings, Steelers, Buccaneers and Redskins had a bye week 5.
Peyton Manning & the Broncos win 51-48 shootout to remain undefeated and also 5-0 ATS plus 5-0 over/under
Our top-play Big Drive on the Eagles won as they rolled the winless Giants 36-21 and dominated the ground game as projected with 37 rush attempts for 140 yards to 53 yards on 17 attempts for the Giants. QB Michael Vick was injured and sat out the second half after rushing for 79 yards in the first half. Our top total came up short as the Saints beat the Bears 26-18. The money came in sharply supporting the ‘over’ as we were down at 48 and the total closed 51. The Saints and Bears combined for over 800 yards offense – third highest combined total of the week, and the other two games easily went over the posted total.
Betting and beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Turnovers will always have an impact on NFL games and especially against the spread (ATS), as I’ve tracked the impact of 3 or more turnovers for over a decade along with a 2-turnover differential advantage or disadvantage. After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation. The Chargers (5-0), NY Giants (4-0), Texans (4-0) and Jaguars (3-0) were this week’s big turnover differential losers. Teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column are now 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS this season.
Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent went 8-3 ATS in week 5. We’ll discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners. For over a decade, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread approx. 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average.
Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point-of-attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, weather and more.
Week 5 big ground gainers in rushing included the Seahawks (218 rush yds/34 attempts) in defeat, Packers (180/33), 49ers (177/36), Bengals (162/39) and Eagles (140/37). These teams went 4-1 SU and ATS with the Seahawks losing their first game of the season despite over 218 rushing yards and a 423 (6.3) to 317 (5.3) yards advantage over the Colts. Note the Ravens rushed for 133 yards on 40 carries to beat the Dolphins as ‘Dog, as Miami rushed just 11 times for 22 yards.
The Dolphins (22 rush yds/11 attempts), Chargers (32/19), Cowboys (52/14), Giants (53/17), Lions (64/19) and Falcons (64/22) all struggled to get their running game going. These teams went 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS. While the game flow, situations and score can impact a team’s game plan and use of the running game (Dallas shootout with Denver), it’s proven over and over, season after season that teams who fail to commit to the running game or lack consistency in the ability to run the ball and control the ball, clock and chains are more often on the losing side of the ledger, both SU and ATS.
Teams that had strong offensive showings in total net yards and efficient yards per play (yppl) in victory were the Broncos (517/7.1), Packers (449/7.0) and Eagles (442/5.7). The Bears had 452 yards at 8.4 yds per play (some garbage time), but lost to the Saints. Another example of a pass-heavy offense that came up short. The NFL team average yards per play is approx. 5.4. Inefficient offensive teams in defeat included the Patriots (248/4.1) and Lions (286/4.5). The Cardinals managed just 265 yards at 4.6 yppl but beat the pathetic Panthers 22-6 despite 403 yards and 6.1 yppl for Carolina. The Panthers were in the giving mood with 4 turnovers; you know who we had in that contest.
We’ll review more NFL Inside the Numbers stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis. Listen to my NFL Podcast posted early each week on Tuesday’s for more insight, analysis and sports betting information.
Stay on Course…
@FairwayJay
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