NFL Inside The Numbers Week 4

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers Week 4

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners.

Sunday was not a good day and we missed on our only Top Play, but we had the Chiefs (+3.5) Monday night and Kansas City took the money and closed +3 in their 41-14 rout of the Patriots.

Join me this week as we shoot for more birdies and green on the gridiron and shoot for even more profit and success.

Here are some Week 4 stats of note.

Week 4 NFL favorites went 8-5 SU and 8-5 ATS and are 36-25 SU and 28-33 ATS this season.  I graded the Lions ( -1 ) and 49ers ( -4.5 ) as favorite winners ATS.  Scoring was up again in Week 4 to 52 PPG with 13 games as the bye weeks begin.  Each week scoring has increased from 42.6 in Week 1 to 44.75, 46.5 and 52 PPG in Week 4.  Six more games had at least 55 points scored; same as in Week 3.  Over/under totals went 10-3 in Week 4 and are now 33-28 YTD.

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Good fortune in the turnover column helps too. After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation.  Week 4 saw five more teams struggle with a negative TO margin of 3 or more including the Redskins ( 6-1 ), Jaguars ( 3-0 ), Eagles ( 4-1 ) Saints ( 3-0 ) and Patriots ( 3-0 ).  Teams that are minus ( -3 ) or greater in the turnover column in a game are now 0-16 SU/ATS this season.

Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent ( at least 30 yards ) went 8-4 ATS in Week 4 after going 9-2 the previous week and are now 34-14 YTD.  We’ll discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners.  Clearly it’s not an easy forecast as the Bears ran the ball 41 times for 235 yards and limited to Packers to 56 rushing yards on 18 carries and lost 38-17 despite this powerful rushing yards and attempts situation.  The NY Jets lost for the third-straight week despite a big rushing yards advantage, but incompetent QB Geno Smith threw an INT and fumbled away the ball ( again ).  The Jets have the proven profile for SU and ATS success if they can get even adequate QB play.

Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point of attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, weather and more.

Week 4 big ground gainers in rushing included the Vikings ( 241 rush yards/44 carries ), Bears ( 235/41 ), 49ers ( 218/42 ), Chiefs ( 207/38 ), Cowboys ( 190/35 ), Dolphins ( 157/35 ) and NY Giants ( 154/38 ).  Note these teams went 6-1 SU/ATS and all ran the ball at least 30 times.  That’s a key figure and indicator in NFL rushing guidelines and I’ll discuss the importance of that statistic and use in handicapping in future articles.

The Eagles ( 22/12 ), Texans ( 37/24 ), Chargers ( 42/20 ), Raiders ( 53/18 ), Packers ( 56/18 ), Buccaneers ( 63/20 ),  Panthers ( 67/26 ), Patriots ( 75/16 ), and Redskins ( 80/17 ) all struggled to get their running game going but the Chargers, Packers and Bucs all pulled out wins.   These teams still went a combined 3-6 ATS.

The biggest beneficiary this season of an improved running game is the Dallas Cowboys, who lead the league in rushing with 165 YPG and 5.4 YPR and are running the ball 32 times per game compared to 21 last season.   The Cowboys have won 3-straight games and while there are plenty of offensive line rankings to digest before and during the season, this one has proven to be the most prophetic ranking the Cowboys offensive line as the best before the season started.

Point of attack play and running game success trumps passing prowess a majority of the time, and each week I point out the stats to provide the proof.  So regardless of all the talking heads telling you that teams must have a top-tier passing game to succeed in the NFL, I’ll point you to my weekly articles and stats that suggest otherwise and that perception is not reality in the pass/run success argument of the NFL.

Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in Week 4 victories were the Vikings ( 558/7.5 yards-per-play ), Colts ( 498/6.1 ), Cowboys ( 455 /6.8 ), NY Giants ( 449/5.8 ), Dolphins ( 435/6.6 ), Chargers ( 407/6.7 ) and Packers ( 358/7.6 ). The  Bears had 33 first downs and 496 yards at 6.8 yards-per-play but still lost to rival Green Bay 38-17 as Chicago suffered a 2-0 turnover differential and made too many mistakes.  Inefficient offensive teams included the Eagles ( 213/3.8 ), Patriots ( 290/5.9 ), Bills ( 316/4.6 ) and Jaguars ( 319/4.9 ).

More offensive line issues for the Eagles as they try to get their fast-paced offense and league-leading ground game from last season back on track along with the Falcons, who lost two linemen for the season in last week’s loss.

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis.

Stay on Course…

@FairwayJay