NFL Inside The Numbers Week 3

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers Week 3

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners.

Week 3 turned out to be a boon for favorite bettors and a bust for the sports books. We had another great week as Members enjoyed a 3-0 Top Play sweep that included underdog Buffalo stampeding Miami on the road 41-14 while the Falcons flew over the Cowboys 39-28. Our third top play and only total of the week was ‘under’ as Carolina and Cleveland played the second-lowest scoring game of the week in a 17-9 Panthers win.

Bettors couldn’t get enough of big favorites Seattle and New England, who were be up to over two touchdown favorites and still each won easily and covered the spreads by two touchdowns.

Here are some Week 3 stats of note.

When the Packers won and covered over the Chiefs Monday night 38-28, the weekly tab showed favorites 12-6 SU and 10-6 ATS, as I graded the Falcons as favorite along with the Steelers. Both those teams  closed 1-point underdogs on game day after being favored all week leading up to kickoff.  Scoring was up again with week 3 averaging of 48.2 points per game (47.75 PPG in week 2).  Over/under totals went 10-5-1 grading the Vikings/Chargers a push.

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Good fortune in the turnover column helps too. After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation.  Four more teams suffered turnover troubles in Week 3 as the Redskins (3-0), NY Jets (4-1), 49ers (4-0) and Dolphins (3-0) all suffered negative turnover margins of 3 or more. Teams in this situation are now 1-9 SU/ and 0-10 ATS this season and just one team last season won the game with a negative 3-or-greater turnover differential.  Dallas won the game but did not cover in week 1 this season despite a 3-0 turnover disadvantage.

Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent ( at least 30 yards ) went 13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS in week 3, as the Colts won but did not cover. For the season, this rushing guideline and situation is 27-8 ATS (77%). We’ll discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners.  Clearly it’s not an easy forecast and when a team falls behind by margin like the Jets in week 3, they often have to abandon the running game (16 rushes NYJ) and the game plan changes. For over a decade, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread approx. 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average.

Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point of attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, weather and more.

Week 3 big ground gainers in rushing included the Texans (186 rush yards/46 attempts), Vikings (163/31), Seahawks (159/29), Falcons (158/32), Raiders (155/30), Bills (151/34) and Cardinals (139/37). The other six teams who outrushed their teams by margin all rushed the ball at least 30 times in victory, as that is another key indicator to point spread and winning success.

The Lions (28/19), Ravens (36/18), Browns (39/14), Jets (47/16) and Bucs (57/20) all struggled to get their running game going in defeat and so too did the Broncos again (41/19) in victory. Denver is rushing the ball for just 57 yards per game at 2.6 yards per rush – both bottom two in the NFL. The Broncos have only run the ball 22 times per game, so all these warning signs point to problems, although they are 3-0 with a dominant defense and Peyton Manning at quarterback.

But the point of all this is that rushing stats and point of attack play often trumps passing prowess a majority of the time. When you have a few top-tier quarterbacks that can overcome a poor ground game or use it as a short passing attack (Manning), sometimes a lack of a running game can work out. A dominant defense helps. But regardless of all the talking heads telling you that teams must have a passing game to succeed in the NFL, I’ll point you to my weekly articles and stats that suggest otherwise and that perception is not reality in the pass/run success argument of the NFL. We have the adjust to the rules and changes in the game allowing for more passing game success and now more scoring in recent seasons, but the game is still about blocking, tackling, running and catching and the team that controls the line of scrimmage, establishes a running game (or more attempts) and minimizes turnovers is often the team that comes out on top.

Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in week 3 victories were the Raiders (469 yards/7.6 yards per play ), Patriots (471/6.2), Bengals (458/7.0), Packers (448/6.6), Cardinals (446/6.4), Panthers (431/7.0), Falcons (438/6.3), Bills (428/6.8) and Colts (378/6.8) (373/5.7).  Inefficient offensive teams included the Bears (146/3.2 – ugh), 49ers (156/3.1 – ouch) and Lions (240/4.3). Two teams that won despite poor offensive showings were the Eagles (231/3.4) and Steelers (259/4.5).  The league average is approximately 5.4 yards-per-play.

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis.