NFL Inside The Numbers Week 3

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers Week 3

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners.

Week 3 was the best results for betting favorites thus far this season but finished just 8-8 ATS as the Sunday night and Monday night favorites lost outright at home.   We nailed our only Top Play of the week on the Redskins (+ 6.5 ), who took lots of money game day in a 37-34 defeat at Philadelphia.  Tough card IMO last week as I struggled to come up with some solid plays.

Join me this week as we shoot for more birdies and green on the gridiron and shoot for even more profit and success.

Here are some Week 2 stats of note.

Week 3 NFL favorites went 10-6 SU and 8-8 ATS and are 28-20 SU and 20-28 ATS this season.  I graded the Ravens ( -1.5)  a winner in their 2-point fortunate win at Cleveland and also graded the NY Giants as a underdog as that was the prevailing line before game day action made them a 1-point favorite.  Scoring was up in Week 3 to  46.5 PPG after the opening 2 weeks showed 44.75 and 42.6 PPG.  Six games had at least 56 points scored last week as over/unders went 9-7.

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Good fortune in the turnover column helps too. After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation.  Only the Jacksonville Jaguars ( 3-0 ) suffered a turnover differential of 3 or more in Week 3, and that negative TO margin ( -3 ) shows teams 0-11 SU/ATS this season.

Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent ( at least 30 yards ) went 9-2 ATS in Week 3. We’ll discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners.  Clearly it’s not an easy forecast as Pittsburgh pounded the ball on the ground for 264 rushing yards at Carolina  following 99 rushing yards in a 26-6 loss at Baltimore the week prior.  The Giants rushed for 193 yards last week against a solid Texans defensive front after rushing for just 53 and 81 yards at 2.7 YPR thier first two games.  Recall in Week 2 that the Cowboys limited running game and attempts exploded at Tennessee ( 43/220 yards ) in their 26-10 Week 2 road win.  For over a decade, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread approx. 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average.

Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point of attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, weather and more.

Week 3 big ground gainers in rushing included the Steelers ( 264 rush yards/34 carries ), NY Giants ( 193/42 ), Chiefs ( 174/41 ), Ravens ( 160/33 ) and Falcons ( 144/36 ).  Note these teams went 5-0 SU/ATS and all ran the ball at least 30 times.  That’s a key figure and indicator in NFL rushing guidelines and I’ll discuss the importance of that statistic and use in handicapping in future articles.

The Panthers ( 42/10 ), Vikings ( 59/22 ), Buccaneers ( 64/18 ), Raiders ( 67/22 ) and Packers ( 76/22 ) all struggled to get their running game going and went a combined 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS.  The Bears ( +3 ) knocked off the Jets 27-19 despite just 60 yards rushing and 257 yards at 4.1 yards-per-play, but incompetent QB play by New York’s Geno Smith and 3 turnovers were the real difference.

Point of attack play and running game success trumps passing prowess a majority of the time, and each week I point out the stats to provide the proof.  So regardless of all the talking heads telling you that teams must have a top-tier passing game to succeed in the NFL, I’ll point you to my weekly articles and stats that suggest otherwise and that perception is not reality in the pass/run success argument of the NFL.

Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in Week 3 victories were the Colts ( 529/7.1 yards-per-play ), Falcons ( 488 yards/7.5 ), Steelers (454/7.0), NY Giants ( 419/5.9 ) and Ravens ( 377/5.9 ). The Redskins rolled-up 511 yards at 6.7 YPPL but 10 penalties for 131 yards were significant in a 37-34 defeat at Philadelphia.  Inefficient offensive teams included the Buccaneers ( 217/3.8 ) Packers ( 223/4.4 ), Raiders ( 241/4.3 ) and Vikings ( 247/4.6 ).   Note the Patriots offense has gained less than 300 yards each of the past two games in a pair of victories and averaged just 4.5 YPPL.  More offensive line issues for New England as their offense continues to struggle.

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis.

Stay on Course…

@FairwayJay