NFL Inside The Numbers – Week 3

Handicapping and Analyzing the Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners. Every week during the NFL season I provide my thoughts and insight on my NFL Inside the Numbers column to assist you in your pursuit of profit. You can also listen to my NFL Podcast each week where I provide insight and analysis into the upcoming Sunday games.

Here are some Week 3 stats of note.

Week 3 NFL favorites went 11-5 straight-up (SU) and 9-6-1 ATS against the spread (ATS), and are now 35-13 SU and 24-22-2 ATS year to date.  I graded the Broncos as an ATS loser Monday night over the Raiders, although -14’ was widely available throughout Sunday and Monday morning before money flooded in on Denver and moved the line to 16’and even 17 near game time.  Over/under totals were 7-9 and now 23-25 YTD.

We suffered a tough top-play totals loser on the Lions – Redskins over 48 (bet up to 49’) when the Redskins failed to punch in the decisive TD with first and goal from the Lions 4 yards line with two minutes remaining in the game. The Lions 27-20 victory snapped a 21-game Lions losing streak against Washington at the nation’s capital, but it made for some frustrated totals bettors. The Lions and Redskins each had over 420 yards offense and their game produced 861 total yards; the most combined yards on the Sunday week 4 schedule.  We released a big card and went 3-4 Sunday with the above mentioned total a big swing game in our pursuit of profit.

Betting and beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. We projected success for the Packers and lost on a late fumble return TD by the Bengals. Green Bay had 182 rushing yards on 30 carries; a very positive point spread success indicator, but lost 34-30. The Bengals finished with 82 rushing yards.

Turnovers will always have an impact on NFL games and especially against the spread (ATS), as I’ve tracked the impact of 3 or more turnovers for over a decade along with a 2-turnover differential advantage or disadvantage.  After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation.  The Eagles (5-0) and Steelers (5-0) were the week 4 teams with turnover troubles and lost SU and ATS. For the season, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column are 7-0 SU and ATS.

Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent went 7-4-1 ATS in week 3. We’ll discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners. For over a decade, teams that outrush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread approx. 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average.

Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point-of-attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, weather and more.  We noted the weather and rain in Foxboro and even Tweeted an update.  We had a betting winner with our clients on ‘under’ the total as New England beat Tampa Bay 23-3.  One other note is that we bet and provided our clients with the Carolina Panthers; a 38-0 blasting of the NY Giants. This was the biggest money move of the day, as the Giants went from an underdog to the favorite Sunday morning. I Tweeted that I disagreed with the steam move on the Giants, and the Panthers pounded the G-men with a ground assault of 194 rushing yards on 46 carries while holding the Giants to 150 total yards.

Week 3 big ground gainers in rushing included the Panthers (194 rush yards, 46 carries), Cowboys (193/34), NY Jets (182/41), Packers (182/30) and Colts (179/9).  These teams went 4-1 SU and ATS.  The Eagles had 260 yards rushing in defeat, but of course a 5-0 turnover disadvantage was the Eagles downfall in a 26-16 home loss to the Chiefs on Thursday.

The Rams (35 rush yards/ 12 carries), Jaguars (51), NY Giants (60) and Raiders (49) all struggled to get their running game going.  These teams went 0-4 SU and 0-4 or 1-3 ATS depending on your savvy sports shopping for the best betting number Monday night on the Raiders game. While the game flow, situations and score can impact a team’s game plan and use of the running game, it’s proven over and over, season after season that teams who fail to commit to the running game or lack consistency in the ability to run the ball and control the ball, clock and chains are more often on the losing side of the ledger, both SU and ATS.

Teams that had strong offensive showings in total net yards and efficient yards per play (yppl) in victory were the Broncos (536/7.3), NY Jets (513/7.3), Seahawks (479/7.1), Lions (441/6.7) and Titans (452/6.6).  The NFL team average yards per play (yppl – link) is approx. 5.4.  Inefficient offensive teams in defeat included the NY Giants (150/3.0), Rams (232/3.5), Cardinals (246/4.5), Texans (264/4.3) and Jaguars (265/4.0).

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis. Be sure to listen to my NFL Podcast each week for more insight, analysis and sports betting information.

Stay on Course…

@FairwayJay