NFL Inside the Numbers Week 14
Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers Week 14 by @FairwayJay
A record week in scoring week 14 as 859 points were scored; an average of 53.7 points per game. That despite December cold weather and many locations featuring snow and windy conditions. In fact, the six cold and bad-weather locations saw the over/unders go 6-0 over the total. We had a small losing week but nailed that last cold-weather total in the Bears vs. Cowboys Monday night match-up with analysis. . In week 13, a season-high 15 teams ran the ball at least 30 times, and in week 14, nine teams ran the ball at least 30 times and those teams went 8-1 ATS.
Be sure to listen to my NFL Betting Podcast each week for more insight into this NFL match-ups and games.
Bengals & Steelers rivalry continues Sunday Night Wkek 15
Week 14 NFL Favorites went 13-3 straight-up (SU) and 9-7 against the spread (ATS); I graded the Cowboys as a 1-point favorite Monday night. Using my lines favorites are now 142-65 SU and 104-97-6 ATS year to date pending the lines used and movement. Over/under totals were 11-5 in week 14. Using our grade, totals are now 108-92 O/U YTD (I’m leaving out pushes). Weather impacted some totals moves again and early week 15 forecasts project colder temperatures near freezing with moderate winds in Denver, Tennessee (Nashville), NY Giants (East Rutherford), Cleveland and Pittsburgh.
Betting and beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. But even when you handicap the games correctly and they even play out statistically as planned, you’re wagers can go up in smoke due to bad calls, unforeseen injuries, dropped balls and of course Turnovers, as TO’s will always have an impact on NFL games and especially against the spread (ATS). The Buffalo Bills had another bad week in turnovers with five and a 5-2 margin. Teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column are now 30-2 ATS his season. Teams that are exactly +2 in the turnover column in a game are 43-9 ATS this season including 6-0 ATS in week 15 (4-2 SU, Browns & Vikings blew it) and 32-2 ATS the past seven weeks.
- Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent went 6-3 ATS in week 14. For the season, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a game are 88-47 (65%) YTD. Teams that had strong offensive showings in total net yards and efficient yards per play (yppl) in week 14 were: Broncos (544/6.1), Bears (490/7.0), Eagles (478/7.0), Patriots (484/6.3), Bengals (420/6.1), Chargers (388/5.5) and Dolphins (360/6.0), The Browns had their finest offensive game of the season with 494 yards at 7.1 YPPL, but lost in the closing seconds at New England. Week 14 big ground gainers in rushing that won included the Eagles (299 rush yds/ 46 attempts), Chiefs (193/38), Dolphins (181/24), Buccaneers (163/35), 49ers (163/33), Bengals (155/35) and Bears (149/32). Dallas (of all teams) rush for 198 yards in defeat against a Bears team that has allowed and average of 200 rushing YPG and 6.0 YPR the past six games.
The Colts (63 rush yds/12 attempts) , Redskins (65/17), Bills (67/22) and Falcons (83/23) struggled to get their ground game going in defeat. While the game flow, situations and score can impact a team’s game plan and use of the running game, it’s proven over and over, season after season that teams who fail to commit to the running game or lack consistency in the ability to run the ball and control the ball, clock and chains are more often on the losing side of the ledger, both SU and ATS.
Cheer for the AFC North!
Here are the ATS records of teams that fail to run the ball 20 times or less in a game and those teams than run the ball at least 30 times in a game. Yards per rush is not as important as controlling the ball, clock and chains. Having a quality or top-tier QB helps, but review these running stats again and use them in your handicapping to see if you can determine which teams will have success running the ball and/or stopping the run each week and which teams will commit to controlling and running the ball. Research injuries and their impact on both the running game/stopping run and potential match-up edges in the passing game.
Through week 14 games, teams that run the ball 20 times or less in a game are a combined 14-72 (16%) ATS this season. Conversely, teams that run the ball at least 30 times per game are 95-26 (79%) ATS this season (not including games where both teams run the ball 30+ times).
click here for more NFL team rushing stats
We’ll review more NFL Inside the Numbers stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis. Listen to my NFL Betting Podcast Week 15 posted early each week on Tuesday’s for more insight, analysis and sports betting information.
Stay on Course…
@FairwayJay
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