NFL Inside The Numbers Week 11

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers Week 11

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners.  Each week we analyze the information and try to position our plays for success based on match-up advantages.  The running game and/or ability to stop the run is another way to isolate NFL point spread winners.

Here are some Week 11 stats of note.

Week 11 NFL favorites went 8-6 SU and  6-8 ATS and are now 107-53 SU and 82-80 ATS this season.  Totals went  4-11 O/U with both the Sunday and Monday night prime time games going over the total and those Thursday, Sunday and Monday night prime time games are now 26-8 over/under this season.

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success.  Good fortune in the turnover column helps too. After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation.  This season, teams that are +3 or greater in the turnover column in a game are 33-1 SU and 31-3 ATS after the Eagles ( 4-0 ) and NY Giants ( 5-1 ) suffered at least a negative TO margin of 3 ore more in Week 11.

Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent (at least 30 yards) went 7-4 ATS in Week 11 and are now 81-30 ( 73% this season – right near the historical average ). We’ll discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners. For over a decade, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread approx. 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average.

Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point of attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, QB play, weather and more.   As the season progresses with more data to digest, our handicapping and match-up analysis usually becomes stronger as we project more point spread winners.

Last Sunday our member plays and opinions went 5-3, but our Top Plays took the doughnut.  A review of the box scores shows that one of those plays on the Seahawks as ‘Dog played out pretty well as projected with Seattle rushing for over 200 yards and out gaining the Chiefs by over 70 yards.  Seattle also had 71 offensive plays to 46 for the Chiefs and a big time of possession advantage, but came up short twice on 4th down and lost to KC 24-20 despite Seattle not turning the ball over and having a +2 TO advantage.  Those numbers translate to ATS success a very large percentage of the time.  That said, no excuse for the Saints debacle at home as the Bengals pounded the ground for 186 yards and controlled the line in a convincing road win on the Saints strong home field.

Week 11 big ground gainers in rushing included the Patriots ( 246 rush yards/ 44 carries ), Texans ( 213/54 ), Steelers ( 206/36 ) Seahawks ( 204/37 ) Chiefs ( 190/30 ), Bengals ( 186/36 ), 49ers ( 148/37 ), Bears ( 138/31) and Rams ( 131/33 ).  Week 11 teams that struggled to get their running game going were the Colts ( 19/17 ), Broncos ( 28/10 ),  Bucs ( 48/21 ), Titans ( 49/15 ), Bills ( 54/19 ),Browns ( 58/24 ), NY Giants ( 65/21 ), Raiders ( 71/19 ) and the lone victor Cardinals ( 46/26 ).

Handicapping point-of-attack play is not as easy as you might think.  Clearly statistical and match-up analysis is part of the projection, but you can learn much more by following or listening to film study experts, dig deeper into statistical analysis and sites like Pro Football Focus, and review beat writer reports and blogs and of course injury reports.

Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in Week 11 victories were the Patriots ( 503/6.8 ), Packers ( 475/7.4 ) and Bears ( 468/6.3 ).   Inefficient offensive teams included the Raiders ( 233/4.2 ), Bills ( 237/4.0 ), Lions ( 210/3.9 ) and Chargers ( 300/4.4 ) in victory. The league average is approximately 5.45 yards-per-play.

Early Week 12 rushing projections with margin parameters appear to favor the Chiefs over Raiders ( but we will not be playing KC ), Eagles over Titans, Texans over Bengals, NY Jets over Bills, Bears over Bucs, Rams over Chargers and Cowboys over NY Giants.

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis.

Stay on Course…

@FairwayJay