NFL Inside the Numbers Week 11

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers by @FairwayJay

Each week during the NFL season I read the game recaps and load relevant stats into my proprietary data base. I use many of the stats and rushing numbers to assist me in sports investing and write my weekly NFL Inside the Numbers column to assist you in your pursuit of profit. A review of relevant stats and how to incorporate them into your weekly analysis of games is provide in this weeks NFL Inside the Numbers Week 11 article and I also discuss and incorporate these stats and situations into the weekly evaluation of match-ups and share them with you in my weekly NFL Podcast where I provide insight and analysis into the upcoming Sunday game

This week my NFL Inside the Numbers Week 11 takes a look at some strong rushing attacks that surprisingly did not fare too well.   My rushing guidelines used to evaluate point-spread winners and produce profit had just the second losing week of the season, but the worst week overall in week 11.  Included was one of our two Big Drive Top Plays on the Chargers, who out-rushed the Dolphins 154-104 and out-gained them by nearly 100 yards with a 6.9 to 5.9 yards per play advantage. With the turnovers even at 1 apiece, how did the Chargers lose?  Read the recap and you’ll see how and why.

Tampa Bay undrafted rookie RB Bobby Rainey had 163 yards rushing in his starting debut

The Week 11 NFL Favorites went 11-4 straight-up (SU) and 8-4-3 ATS against the spread (ATS), and are now 111-51 SU and 83-73-5 ATS year to date pending the lines used and movement.   I graded last Thursday’s Colts/Titans game a push and the 49ers/Saints game also a push using the line of -3 for the favorite. Over/under totals were 8-6 depending on grade at lines available until Sunday or closing numbers.  Weather impacted many totals moves and I graded the Bears/Ravens under the total a winner, as the line of 44 was readily available to Saturday until the line dropped sharply below the final score of 23-20.  Using our grade, totals are now 85-71 O/U YTD.   Continue to do your best to stay ahead and project line moves, and shop for the best numbers.  We had a winning week overall despite some Top Play totals losing,  but a Monday night side and total sweep and another teaser play winner provided us profit.

Betting and beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. But even when you handicap the games correctly and they even play out statistically as planned, you’re wagers can go up in smoke due to bad calls, unforeseen injuries, dropped balls and of course Turnovers, as TO’s will always have an impact on NFL games and especially against the spread (ATS), as I’ve tracked the impact of 3 or more turnovers for over a decade along with a 2-turnover differential advantage or disadvantage.  After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation.  The Falcons, Jets, Lions and Vikings were all on the wrong side of a negative 3 or more turnovers in week 11; all losing SU and ATS.  Teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column are now 24-2 SU and 24-2 ATS this season. Teams that are exactly +2 in the turnover column in a game are 32-9 ATS this season including 21-2 ATS the past four weeks.Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent went 7-3 ATS in week 9 and 23-7 ATS the past three weeks.   For the season, teams with at least a 30 yard rushing advantage in a game are 62-29 ATS. We discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners. For over a decade, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread approx. 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average.

Not many teams had strong offensive showings in total net yards and efficient yards per play (yppl), but those in victory were the Broncos (427/5.6),  Cardinals (416/6.0) and Buccaneers (410/6.3), while the Chargers (435/6.9) and Lons (451/6.2) lost with more yardage.  Innefficient offensive teams included the 49ers (196/3.5), Jaguars (274/4.6), Jets (267/4.8) and Bengals (224/3.8 – won, 41 points!).

Week 11 big ground gainers in rushing that won included the Buccaneers (186 rush yds/38 attempts), and Raiders (165/31) while the Redskins (191/38) and Ravens (174/41) ran the ball well and often but lost.

The Jaguars (32 rush yds/16 attempts , Steelers (40/27), Packers (55/20) and Cardinals (14/24 – won!), struggled to get their ground game going.    While the game flow, situations and score can impact a team’s game plan and use of the running game,  it’s proven over and over, season after season that teams who fail to commit to the running game or lack consistency in the ability to run the ball and control the ball, clock and chains are more often on the losing side of the ledger, both SU and ATS.

Here are the ATS records of teams that fail to run the ball more than 20 times in a game and those teams than run the ball at least 30 times in a game.  Yards per rush is not as important as controlling the ball, clock and chains. Having a quality or top-tier QB helps, but review these running stats again and use them in your handicapping to see if you can determine which teams will have success running the ball and/or stopping the run each week and which teams will commit to controlling and running the ball.

Through week 9 games, teams that run the ball 20 times or less in a game are a combined 10-61  ATS this season.  Conversely, teams that run the ball at least 30 times per game are 75-19 ATS this season (not including games where both teams run the ball at least 30 times).

We’ll review more NFL Inside the Numbers stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis. Listen to NFL Podcast posted early each week on Tuesday’s for more insight, analysis and sports betting information.

Stay on Course…
@FairwayJay

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