NFL Inside The Numbers Week 10

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers Week 10

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners.  Each week we analyze the information and try to position our plays for success based on match-up advantages.  The running game and/or ability to stop the run is another way to isolate NFL point spread winners.

Here are some Week 10 stats of note.

Week 10 NFL favorites went 10-3 SU and 10-3 ATS and are now 99-47 SU and 76-72 ATS this season.  I graded the Chiefs as favorite but the Bills closed a short favorite on Sunday.  Totals went  7-6 O/U with the Sunday and Monday night prime time games going way over the total and those Thursday, Sunday and Monday night prime time games are now 24-7 over/under this season.

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success.  Good fortune in the turnover column helps too. After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation.  This season, teams that are +3 or greater in the turnover column in a game are 31-1 SU and 29-3 ATS after the Bengals ( 4-1 ), Steelers ( 4-0 ), Buccaneers ( 3-0 ) and Panthers ( 5-0 ) all suffered at least a negative TO margin of 3 ore more in Week 10.

Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent (at least 30 yards) went 7-1 ATS in Week 10 and are now 74-26 ( 74% this season – right near the historical average ). We’ll discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners. For over a decade, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread approx. 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average.

Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point of attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, QB play, weather and more.   As the season progresses with more data to digest, our handicapping and match-up analysis usually becomes stronger as we project more point spread winners.  Such was the case in Week 10 with our Top Play 20* Big Bertha winner on the Ravens as they out-rushed the Titans 151-67 and out-gained Tennessee 312-210 in a 21-7 home win.  The Packers pounding of the Bears 55-14 was our Top Play total winner as the match-ups played out perfectly with Green Bay’s offense exploding against the Bears weak pass rush, secondary and defensive deficiencies.

Week 10 big ground gainers in rushing included the Seahawks ( 350 rush yards/ 44 carries – wow! ), Browns ( 170/52  ), Ravens  ( 151/34 ), Cowboys ( 151/30 ) and NY Jets ( 150/36 ).   Week 10 teams that struggled to get their running game going were the Raiders ( 30/15 ), Steelers ( 36/17, Dolphins ( 50/19 ) and Lions ( 63/19 ) in their match-up, Giants ( 54/17 ), Bears ( 55/24 ), Titans ( 67/22 )  and Eagles Monday night ( 37/23 ) in victory as they still had a 50 yards advantage and 5.9 to 3.9 yards-per-play advantage with Carolina committing 5 TOs.

The Browns rushed for 170 yards on 52 carries in their Thursday night road win over Cincinnati, 24-3. Clearly this is where the projections can be difficult and why handicapping point-of-attack play is not as easy as you might think.  Cleveland had rushed for 50, 39 and 69 yards in their three previous game and had lost 15-straight division road games before snapping that streak and running woes against the Bengals, who had not lost a regular season home game since 2012.

Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in Week 10 victories were the Seahawks ( 510/8.0 ), Broncos ( 471/6.2 ), Packers ( 451/7.0) and Cowboys ( 399/6.8 ).  Inefficient offensive teams included the Bengals ( 165/2.6 ), Titans ( 210/3.9 ), Raiders ( 222/3.6 ), Dolphins ( 228/3.8 ), Rams ( 242/4.2 ), Panthers ( 317/3.9 ) and both Chiefs ( 278/4.7 ) and NY Jets ( 275/4.7 ) in victories.   The league average is approximately 5.4 yards-per-play.

Last week’s early Week 10 rushing projections played out on these pages going 5-0 SU/ATS.

Early Week 11 rushing projections with margin parameters appear to favor the Texans over Browns, Seahawks over Chiefs, Saints over Bengals, 49ers over NY Giants and Steelers over Titans.

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis.

Stay on Course…

@FairwayJay