NFL Inside the Numbers Week 10

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers by @FairwayJay

This week our NFL Inside the Numbers Week 10 column provides additional insight to assist you in your pursuit of profit. A review of relevant stats and how to incorporate them into your weekly analysis of games is provide here and also in my weekly NFL Podcast where I provide early week insight and analysis into the upcoming Thursday and Sunday games.

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This week my NFL Inside the Numbers Week 10 highlights some strong rushing performances and a few where the stats and rushing guidelines did not produce profit, including on two of our selections.   Strong rushing totals by the Saints (242 yds rushing), Seahawks (211) and Eagles (204) produced easy winners, but our Thursday opinion on the Redskins (191) did not deliver in s 34-27 loss despite 100 yards rushing more than the Vikings, 160 total yards edge and 77 plays to 52 for the Vikings. Washington did not have a turnover and won the TO battle, so what gives?!  NFL Inside the Numbers Week 10 NFL Favorites went 8-6 straight-up (SU) and 6-8 ATS against the spread (ATS), and are now 100-47 SU and 75-69-2 ATS year to date.  Over/under totals were 6-8 depending on grade at lines available until Sunday or closing numbers.  I graded the Eagles, Ravens and Bears as small (-1) favorites.  Using our grade, totals are now 77-67 O/U YTD.   Continue to do your best to stay ahead and project line moves, and shop for the best numbers.

Betting and beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Turnovers will always have an impact on NFL games and especially against the spread (ATS), and week 10 saw the Colts (5-1) suffer a big turnover differential in a 38-8 loss at home as a big favorite.  I’ve tracked the impact of 3 or more turnovers for over a decade along with a 2-turnover differential advantage or disadvantage.  Teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column are now 20-2 SU and 21-1 ATS this season. Teams that are exactly +2 in the turnover column in a game are 26-9 ATS this season including 15-2 ATS the past four weeks.

Teams that had strong offensive showings in total net yards and efficient yards per play (yppl) in victory were the Saints (634/7.9), Seahawks (498/7.2), Broncos (414/6.9), Eagles (432/7.4), Rams (3787/7.0) and Lions (364/6.0).  The Redskins (472/6.1) were productive but lost.  The NFL team average yards per play is approx. 5.4. Inefficient offensive teams included the 49ers (196/3.8), Dolphins (213/3.7), Ravens (225/3.2) won!, Cowboys  (217/5.0), Raiders (228/4.2), Jaguars (234/4.2) won!, Falcons (236/4.4) and Bills (250/3.9).  Week 10 big ground gainers in rushing that won included the Saints (242 rush yds/38 attempts), Seahawks (211/42), Eagles  (204/37) and Redskins (191/36).  These teams went 3-1 SU/ATS.

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The Dolphins (2 rush yds/14 attempts), Colts (18/14), Bears (38/20) and Falcons (64/160 and Cowboys (89/16) struggled to get their running game going. These teams went  0-5 SU/ATS.  While the game flow, situations and score can impact a team’s game plan and use of the running game,  it’s proven over and over, season after season that teams who fail to commit to the running game or lack consistency in the ability to run the ball and control the ball, clock and chains are more often on the losing side of the ledger, both SU and ATS.

Here are the ATS records of teams that fail to run the ball more than 20 times in a game and those teams than run the ball at least 30 times in a game.  Yards per rush is not as important as controlling the ball, clock and chains. Having a quality or top-tier QB helps, but review these running stats again and use them in your handicapping to see if you can determine which teams will have success running the ball and/or stopping the run each week and which teams will commit to controlling and running the ball.

Through week 10 games, teams that run the ball 20 times or less in a game are a combined 9-57 ATS this season including 0-5 ATS week 10.  Conversely, teams that run the ball at least 30 times per game are 69-18 ATS this season (not including games where both teams run the ball at least 30 times).

While I discuss and review weekly rushing numbers, here are some passing stats of note.  Teams that pass the ball an average of at least 40 times per game are the Lions, Broncos, Falcons, Browns, Saints and Texans.
These teams have combined to go 25-28 ATS. The 49ers (174) are last in the NFL in passing yards per game, but they continue to win with a strong running game and defense, along with the Panthers and Chiefs who also pass for less than 200 ypg.

We’ll review more NFL Inside the Numbers stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis. Listen to my NFL Podcast posted early each week on Tuesday’s for more insight, analysis and sports betting information.

Stay on Course…
@FairwayJay

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