NFL Inside The Numbers Week 1

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers Week 1

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers,statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners.  Week 2 provides great opportunities as often their is an over-reaction to Week 1 results and you may recall my record-breaking Week 2 from the 2009 season when me and my clients went a perfect 10-0 ATS on the ten plays I released and provided.  Join me this week as we shoot for more birdies and green on the gridiron and profit from my experience and well rounded game.  Last season we had another big Week 2 card and members enjoyed our 6-3 ATS results with five outright underdog winners!

Here are some Week 1 stats of note.

Week 1 NFL favorites went 10-4 SU and 8-7-1 ATS as I graded the Texans as a favorite over the Chiefs with Kansas City closing the favorite only on game day.  Recall the last two seasons in Week 1 when favorites went 9-7 SU and 5-11 ATS in 2014 and 12-4 straight-up (SU) and 7-8-1 against the spread (ATS) in 2013.   Members enjoyed a 4-0 opening week on side plays with the only three outright underdogs winners on the Sunday card with Buffalo, Tennessee and St. Louis.  Overall, we had a big Week 1 card and Full Card Club members enjoyed the 7-2 ATS opening week of winners.

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Good fortune in the turnover column helps too. After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation.  The Browns ( 5-1 ), Colts ( 3-0 ) and Cowboys ( 3-0 ) were all troubled turnover teams in Week 1 that suffered at least a 3-turnvoer differential, but miraculously the Cowboys pulled out the SU win, yet failed to cover the spread as a 6.5-point favorite. Just once last season did a team win SU in over 40 games in which teams suffered a minus-3 or greater turnover differential.

Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent (at least 30 yards) went 8-3-1 ATS-3 ATS in Week 1. We’ll discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners. For over a decade, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread approx. 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average.

Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point of attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, weather and more. Defensive performance and evaluation must be strongly considered as teams that can stop or slow the opponents running game and/or disrupt the rhythm in the passing game are going to impact the result and stats as well. So while I provide offensive statistics, understand and review the opponents defensive ability, home/road and scheduling situation and evaluate each weekly match-up in projecting success or struggles for the offense.

Week 1 big ground gainers in rushing included the new-look 49ers ( 230 rush yards/39 carries ), Bears ( 189/33 ), Redskins ( 161/37 ), Bills ( 147/36 ), Bengals ( 127/31 ) and Titans ( 124/32 ).  Those teams went 4-2 SU and 4-2 ATS.  Note all those teams ran the ball at least 30 times, as I’ll discuss the importance of that statistic and use in handicapping in future articles.

Surprisingly, of all the NFL teams in Week 1, the Eagles rushed for the the second-fewest yards ( 63 rush yards/ 16 attempts ). Other teams that struggled to get their ground game going were the Saints ( 54/20 ), ( Raiders ( 63/16 ), Colts ( 64/17 ), Lions ( 69/16 ), Broncos ( 69/25 ), Ravens ( 73/23 ) and Dolphins (74/18). These teams went a combined 2-6 SU and 2-6 ATS with the Ravens and Broncos playing each other in a defensive dual.

Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in victory were the Chargers ( 483 yards/6.5 yards per play ), Cardinals (427/7.5), Cowboys ( 436/6.4 ), Bengals ( 396/6.1 ), 49ers ( 395/6.0 ), Falcons ( 395/5.6 ), Rams ( 352/6.4 ) and Bills ( 342/6.2 ).   Inefficient offensive teams included the Ravens ( 173/3.0 ), Raiders ( 246/4.0 ), Vikings ( 248/4.6 ), Dolphins ( 256/4.7 ), Panthers ( 263 / 3.9 ), Jaguars ( 265/4.0 ), Bucs ( 272/4.3 ) and NY Giants ( 289/4.7 ).  The league average is approximately 5.4 yards-per-play.

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis.