NFL Inside The Numbers Week 1

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers Week 1

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners.  Week 2 provides great opportunities as often their is an over-reaction to  Week 1 results and you may recall my record-breaking Week 2 from the 2009 season when me and my clients went a perfect 10-0 ATS on the ten plays I provided.  Join me this week as we shoot for more birdies and green on the gridiron and profit from my experience and well rounded game.

Here are some Week 1 stats of note.

Week 1 NFL favorites went 9-7 SU and 5-11 ATS and recall last season favorites went 12-4 straight-up (SU) and 7-8-1 against the spread (ATS) in Week 1.   While we had some solid ‘Dog winners on the Titans and Bengals, we couldn’t overcome the Bears blunders which also hurt us on teaser plays.  Note that in Week 2 the past two seasons, underdogs have been essentially a .500 wagers cashing the same as favorites with a push.  But home underdogs have been a big money-maker and worth noting in Week 2 with 6 home ‘Dogs this week on September 14.

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Good fortune in the turnover column helps too. After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation.  The Chiefs ( 3-0 ), Buccaneers ( 3-0 ) and Cowboys ( 4-0 ) were all troubled turnover teams in Week 1 that suffered at least a 3-turnvoer differential in defeat.  The Bears had 3 turnovers and couldn’t overcome those and a 2-turnover differential vs. the Bills.

Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent (at least 30 yards) went 5-3 ATS in Week 1. We’ll discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners. For over a decade, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread approx. 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average.

Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point of attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, weather and more.

Week 1 big ground gainers in rushing included the new-look NY Jets ( 212 rush yards/34 carries ), Seahawks ( 207/37 ), Bills ( 193, 33 ), Dolphins ( 191/38 ), Vikings ( 185/31 ), Browns ( 183/30 ) and Titans ( 162/38 ).  I’ll grade those teams at 6-1 SU and ATS on the closing lines, but the Jets were widely available below a 5-point favorite for weeks before the season and even a 5-point favorite on Saturday before closing -6.5 and winning 19-14 in a dominating statistical win over Oakland. Note all those teams ran the ball at least 30 times, as I’ll discuss the importance of that statistic and use in handicapping in future articles.

The Raiders ( 25 rush yards/ 15 attempts ), Chargers ( 52/24 ), Giants ( 53/22 ), Colts (54/14), Jaguars ( 64/25 ), Chiefs ( 67/17 ), Rams ( 72/22 ), Packers ( 80/21 ) and Bears ( 86/18 ) all struggled to get their running game going and went a combined 0-9 SU and 3-6 ATS but again the Raiders and Colts were losers and/or pushes ATS if bet early and winners at close on Sunday.

Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in victory were the Falcons ( 568 yards/8.2 yards per play ), Steelers (490/7.3), Lions ( 417/6.6 ), Broncos ( 408/5.2 ), Cardinals ( 403/6.2 ), NY Jets ( 402/6.2 ), Seahawks ( 398/6.0 ) and Bengals ( 380/5.9 ).   Inefficient offensive teams included the Raiders ( 158/3.2 ), NY Giants ( 197/3.5 ), Chiefs ( 245/4.4 ), Packers ( 255/4.5 ), Bucs ( 264/4.8 ) and Chargers ( 290/4.8).  The league average is approximately 5.4 yards-per-play.

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis.

Stay on Course…

@FairwayJay