NFL Handicapping – Week 2 Perfection Reflection

10-0 Week 2 was a historic week in NFL Handicapping for @FairwayJay

 

Week 2 of the NFL season invariably brings back great memories, as I’m reminded by clients and ‘Fairway Followers’ about my good fortune in week 2 of the 2009 season. At that time I was a regular guest on a weekly radio show in Las Vegas providing insight and analysis, and heard nationwide on SiriusXM Radio and 50 top Arbitron markets for NFL handicapping and betting discussion.

That particular week, I released the biggest NFL selection card of my professional handicapping career spanning over a decade. I bet and provided personal clients 10 NFL selections in week 2 and went a perfect 10-0!! I also provided and posted publicly a written analysis for every game on the NFL card that week.

Saints (-1)…Win 48-22

Rams (+9.5)…Win 7-9

NY Jets (+3.5)…Win 16-9

NY Jets/Patriots under 45.5…Win 16-9

Falcons (–6)…Win 28-20

Raiders (+3)…Win 13-10

Bengals (+9)…Win 31-24

49ers (-1)…Win 23-10

Bears (+3)…Win 17-14

Chargers/Ravens over 40…Win 31-26

 

This past Sunday in opening Week 1 action, we nearly matched that as I released nine rated selections to Full Card Club Members, and those plays went 9-0. Top Plays were a perfect 4-0 including 2-0 on our first two 20* Big Bertha plays of the entire football season. We used good decisions and early releases to get the best total number in the Titans/Vikings game, along with Thursday’s Broncos/Panthers total which we released many days earlier. We completed our big weekend of NFL winners with Monday Night’s over the total analysis and winner in the Redskins/Steelers game to complete our perfect Week 1.

I sent out all Sunday and Monday plays to Members on Thursday, noting that some of those would be opinions but letting them know which sides and totals I was playing. As I narrowed the card for rated member plays, it was still apparent I would have a big card, with Thursday’s Top Play total and analysis to start the season. Those early side plays went 7-0 and the totals 5-2. Obviously I liked the card with many selections provided, but was able get it down to eight rated plays by Sunday and Monday. With Thursday and Monday’s bookend Top Play winners, we had a 9-0 week of winners for members with Top Plays 4-0. Game selection management is not an easy endeavor each week, as you invariably throw out some winners and have some losers when you’re handicapping the whole card and narrowing your wagering selections. And in close calls, it helps to have some breaks like the missed FG by the Panthers at the end of Thursday’s opening game at Denver.

For added bonus, I played a NFL parlay card ticket in Las Vegas, again getting the best total at 41.5 in the Titans/Vikings game which was down to 41 and 40.5 in some sports books at the time (25-16 final). Some good fortune helped, but we hit this 7-for-7 ticket for a bonus to our side and total wagers and plays. We’ll discuss parlay and teaser betting later, but those should be a smaller portion of your wagers at reduced limits a majority of the time.

I’m also in a weekly NFL/CFB pool with over 60 competitors and the top-4 getting paid weekly along with year-end payouts. You pick 14 plays against the spread (ATS), and I went 11-3 including 8-0 in the NFL to take second place in Week 1.

You may recall my smoking start in the NFL SuperContest @LVSuperBook in Las Vegas last year, which I started 5-0 in Week 1 and 16-3-1 through 4 weeks. I’m not in this year’s contest, as the payout structure is not advantageous, having hit 60% in this contest over 17 weeks and not making the money (top 6%). Like poker, I’m trying to find more beatable games and contests, but the SuperContest does offer huge payouts at the top. This year’s contest has a record 1,854 entries and a first place payout of nearly $900,000. But I would not advise following the weekly consensus reports and top-5 plays, as the contest is filled with favorite players, and favorites in Week 1 of NFL action went 5-10-1 ATS.

Week 1 of the 2013 and 2014 seasons was a difficult one for many sports bettors, as underdogs ruled the day going 11-5 and 10-3 ATS. And now in Week 1 of the 2016 season, ‘Dogs were the winners again going 10-5-1 ATS and better if you bet the Giants game earlier.

But it’s a lesson learned to not over-react to a few or recent results, and while some of the week 1 and weekly results seem surprising to fans and many bettors, you can see by our results and parlay profits that we were not. The NFL results should not be a surprise despite the ‘talking heads’ and  media hype of all the ‘upsets’ and sound bites unrelated to what we try to accomplish – picking winners based on research and evaluation with good insight, analysis and proven profiles that produce profit.

History shows that week 2 invariably provides more surprises and upsets, along with some focused and determined efforts as teams try to avoid going 0-2. This week there are three games in which winless teams (0-1) are matched-up including the big division rivalry with Dallas at Washington. There are also three games in which undefeated teams (1-0) are playing including the big division rivalry match-ups with Cincinnati at Pittsburgh and Green Bay at Minnesota Sunday night as the Vikings play their home opener in their new amazing U.S. Bank stadium.

If you don’t’ have the time, energy or ability to research and interpret information to produce more profit and winners, then join me on the gridiron and profit from my experience and well-rounded game, and we’ll shoot for the green together.