NFL Handicapping – Week 2 Perfection Reflection

NFL Handicapping – Week 2 Perfection Reflection

10-0 Week 2 was a historic week for @FairwayJay

Week 2 of the NFL season invariably brings back great memories, as I’m reminded by clients and ‘Fairway Followers’ about my good fortune in week 2 of the 2009 season. At that time I was a regular guest on a weekly radio show in Las Vegas providing insight and analysis, and heard nationwide on SiriusXM Radio and 50 top Arbitron markets for NFL handicapping and betting discussion.

That particular week, I released the biggest NFL selection card of my professional handicapping career spanning over a decade. I bet and provided personal clients 10 NFL selections in week 2 and went a perfect 10-0!! I also provided and posted publicly a written analysis for every game on the NFL card that week.

Saints (-1)…Win 48-22

Rams (+9.5)…Win 7-9

NY Jets (+3.5)…Win 16-9

NY Jets/Patriots under 45.5…Win 16-9

Falcons (–6)…Win 28-20

Raiders (+3)…Win 13-10

Bengals (+9)…Win 31-24

49ers (-1)…Win 23-10

Bears (+3)…Win 17-14

Chargers/Ravens over 40…Win 31-26

This past Sunday in opening Week 1 action, I released nine selections to Full Card Club Members, and those plays went 7-2 ATS. Top Plays were 3-1 and we were 4-0 on NFL sides with the only three outright underdog winners in Sunday’s action making our card – Buffalo, Tennessee and St. Louis.

In addition, we kicked of the NFL SuperContest @LVSuperbook in Las Vegas with a perfect 5-0 start in Week 1. This is the biggest NFL handicapping contest in the world with over 1,700 entries this season. Last year my betting partner and I finished 51-34 (60%) in the SuperContest and top-80 among over 1,400 entries.

Week 1 of the 2013 and 2014 seasons was a difficult one for many sports bettors. Underdogs ruled the day last season going 10-3 ATS opening Sunday and 11-5 ATS overall on the closing lines. This past opening week in 2015, the favorite bettors took down the bookmakers as underdogs were not nearly as strong Sunday. Betting favorites went 8-5 ATS grading the Texans as a favorite as Houston was favored for weeks and months up to game day before the Chiefs closed a 1-point favorite. The two underdogs saved the sports books Monday night, so favorites finished the week 8-7-1 ATS and home underdogs went 4-4 SU/ATS in Week 1.

While some of the results seem surprising to fans when Buffalo rolled over Indianapolis, St. Louis surprised Seattle and then Monday night the birds in Atlanta flew over the Eagles while the 49ers hammered the hyped Vikings, it’s become commonplace to see these kind of upsets week after week in the NFL. Recall last season that five top teams all lost in Week 1 but still made the playoffs as the Patriots, Ravens, Cowboys, Packers and Colts all were beaten in week 1 a year ago. Not quite as many shockers this season, but don’t be surprised when some of the ‘ugly’ underdogs bounce back in Week 2 and moving forward.

History shows that week 2 invariably provides more surprises and upsets, along with some focused and determined efforts as teams try to avoid going 0-2. There are six underdogs in Week 2 action after an amazing eight underdogs were on the card in week 1.

This week there are three games in which winless teams (0-1) are matched-up and also three games in which undefeated teams (1-0) are playing.  The defenses figure to bring a focused and stronger effort in the winless teams match-ups of New Orleans at Tampa Bay, Detroit at Minnesota and Baltimore at Oakland, especially after five of these six teams allowed at least 395 total yards at over 6.0 yards per play in defeat last week.

Read all the popular newsletters and listen to the media ‘talking heads’ this week and you’re going to see and hear projections of doom and gloom for all the NFL ‘ugly’ underdogs again this week. The Buccaneers, Bears, Browns, Jaguars, Redskins and Raiders will get little support or interest, and especially in the betting market. It’s a lesson learned to not over-react to a few or recent results, and as I warned my clients and members Monday night before the hyped road favorites in the PHI/ATL and MIN/SF games took a beating, buyer beware!

We’ve already identified some solid situations and match-ups to support in week 2 as we shoot for more birdies and green on the gridiron.  Join me as we shoot for another perfect weekend and profit from my experience and well-rounded game.

Check back throughout the week for more sports betting and handicapping information, insight, articles and analysis.