NFL Handicapping – Props in Super Bowl 50

Betting Props in Super Bowl 50

The Super Bowl has nearly arrived, and the ‘Big Game’ parties and props are generating big business here in Las Vegas. Super Bowl weekend is a top-3 tourist destination for Las Vegas, and betting is going to be huge on the Big Game along with the props in Super Bowl 50.

Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro at the South Point Hotel and Casino says the Super Bowl handle is soaring. “If we don’t break the record,” Vaccaro said, “I’ll be super surprised.”

The SuperBook at the Westgate has nearly 400 props available for Super Bowl betting, and you can click the link for a preview of all the available proposition offerings.

Here are a few player props I played.

Denver Broncos running back Ronnie Hillman: UNDER 11.5 carries

Hillman is the speed back while running back CJ Anderson brings the power. Hillman led the Broncos in rushing with 863 yards on 207 carries (4.2 YPR) while starting 11 games. He’ll likely start the Super Bowl, but a healthier Anderson is going to be the featured back getting a bulk of the carries.

Hillman has been a non-factor in the two playoff games while rushing for 54 yards at 2.0 yards per rush. He had 11 carries for 16 yards against the Patriots in the AFC Championship game while Anderson carried 16 times for 72 yards and was much more effective in a close contest. Hillman also caught just one pass against the Patriots and 24 this season, so he’s not likely to be on the field as much in passing situations and won’t be able to take any handoffs.

For the Broncos to win, the running backs will have to carry the load, along with their No. 1 dominating defense. But it will be tough sledding running on a Panthers defense that ranks top-5 allowing just 5.0 yards per play with one of the league’s top run defenses that allowed opponents to run the ball a league-low 22 times per game and just 33 percent of their total plays.  The Panthers allowed just 86 rushing yards per game at 4.0 yards per rush, and they will certainly stack the box feeling they will limit the running game and be able to pressure QB Manning more.

We don’t feel Hillman will be much of a factor in this game with limited opportunities.

Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton: UNDER 235.5 gross passing yards.

Plenty of hype and betting action on Panthers QB Cam Newton, and many will play his props ‘over’ the totals. But we’ll go against Superman and his passing totals playing under 235 gross passing yards. Carolina’s running attack is elite, and Newton is a part of that with his mobility and willingness to break from the pocket and run the read option. The Panthers will likely have more success and stay committed to running the ball, as they rushed a league-high 33 times per game for 146 yards per game. Carolina rushed 41 times for 144 yards against the Seahawks top run defense, but Seattle was playing back-to-back road games and frozen in the first half following their miracle win at Minnesota. Newton passed for just 161 yards against the Seahawks as the Panthers stayed committed to the run and protected a huge halftime lead. He had a big passing game against Arizona, but that blowout was fueled by seven Cardinals turnovers and Carolina had nearly 37 minutes of possession time. That won’t be the case against the Bronco’s elite defense.

It will be difficult for the Panthers to extend their 100-yards rushing games to 32 straight against the Bronco’s No. 1 rush defense allowing 81 yards per game, but the Panthers won’t be deterred and should do so while Newton passes less than 30 times with modest success against Denver’s No. 1 pass defense. That also makes under 32 passing attempts of interest.

Top defensive coordinator Wade Phillips will have the Bronco’s elite pass defense and secondary prepared for Newton’s stunts with plenty of pressure from an elite front seven that led the league in sacks. Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware are a dynamic duo, and Newton is going to get harassed. The Bronco’s have shutdown corners to handle the Panthers top receivers TE Olsen and WR Ginn, who drops too many passes. With safety T.J. Ward the anchor and enforcer of Denver’s dominant defense, Newton is going to be pressured into more errant passes.

The Patriots and Steelers have elite QB’s and passers without much of a running game, so they didn’t attempt to run the ball much and attacked with their passing strength against Denver.

That won’t be the case with the Panthers, as the theme should be for Carolina to stay committed to running the ball. So projecting less passes and opportunities for Newton against an elite pass defense has us playing under his total passing yards.