NFL Handicapping – Pittsburgh Pounds Miami

Analysis of a Winning Wager as Pittsburgh Steelers Sink Dolphins

I provided members a Top Play Big Bertha playoff selection on Pittsburgh, and the Steelers steamrolled Miami in a 30-12 wild card win. If you followed along, I provided game analysis on the Steelers vs Dolphins match-up at osga.com, where I provide exclusive articles and insight on sports including from a betting perspective.

The Steelers rode the Killer B’s of Ben, Bell and Brown to a big victory. Here is my pregame betting insight and analysis of the Steelers wild card win.

Wild card weekend has arrived, and the boys from South Beach travel to West Pennsylvania where the weather will be in the teens with wind chill in the single digits. Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger grew up in this part of the county and has played plenty of big games in the cold weather. That’s not the case for Miami QB Matt Moore, who makes his playoff debut with Ryan Tannehill ruled out.

The sports books have shaded the line towards the Pittsburgh Steelers, and while there is a little extra tax to pay betting on Pittsburgh, the match-ups and situation suggests a Steelers dominating performance over the Miami Dolphins.

Historically, the Steelers are also in a favorable match-up and situation using strength of schedule (SOS) as a guideline. Since 2002, playoff teams with a higher SOS are 40-16 SU and 40-15-1 ATS (73%). If the SOS differential is 10 or more, then the stronger team is 23-4 SU and 22-4-1 ATS. That’s the situation with the Steelers, as Pittsburgh’s SOS is No. 11 in the league while the Dolphins are No. 27.

Sunday, January 8
Pittsburgh Steelers -10
Miami Dolphins      +10
Total   45.5
Kickoff 1:05 pm ET
Heinz Field (grass), Pittsburgh, PA TV: CBS

Much credit to Dolphins 1st Year coach Adam Gase, who has guided the fish to their first playoff appearance since 2008. Following a 1-4 SU/ATS start, the Dolphins were swimming upstream. But as a 7-point home ‘Dog to these Steelers in Week 6, Miami turned their season around. The offensive line got healthy and running back Jay Ajayi arrived, rushing for 204 yards and 2 TDs in Miami’s 30-15 win. The Dolphins would go on a 6-game winning streak and finish the season 10-6. However, more injuries along the line including to Pro Bowl center Mike Pouncey, along with a season ending injury to QB Tannehill has Miami facing a mountain climb as the warm-weather Dolphins try to avoid a freeze out as they rely heavily on their own star running back Jay Ajayi.

A closer inspection of the Dolphins play and record shows they not only had a weaker strength of schedule, but Miami had plenty of defensive deficiencies. The Dolphins ranked No. 29 in total defense allowing 382 yards per game including 448 per game over their last three contests at 6.0 yards per play.

The Steelers finished 11-5 against the No. 11 SOS while also playing a number of games without RB Le’Veon Bell (suspension) and QB Ben Roethlisberger. Bell makes his playoff debut after being sidelined by injuries the previous two years, and the match-up is very favorable for Bell to have a big performance. Big Ben was injured in the Miami game (knee) and the Steelers lost 4-straight. But starting in week 10, the Steelers surged to the finish, winning 7-straight games and scoring at least 24 points in 8-straight to win the AFC North.

Now the killer B’s of Ben, Bell and WR Antonio Brown should shine at home after all three were rested in week 17 along with other starters. Recall with everything on the line and a division title at stake in week 16 against the Ravens, Pittsburgh racked up over 400 yards against Baltimore’s top-tier defense and Bell rushed for 120 yards on 20 carriers. Ben turned the ball over at two key moments and the Steelers still won. Now he’ll have more success through the air with Brown the key target and Bell a versatile receiver. But Bell should go off on the ground as the Dolphins ranked No. 30 in rush defense allowing 140 YPG and tied for the league-worst 4.8 yards per rush against.

Miami QB Matt Moore makes his first playoff start, and the Dolphins were nearly minus (-90) yards per game on the road this season with Tannehill at quarterback, and out-gained by nearly 100 YPG over their last six contests despite winning four of those games. While the Steelers will focus on slowing down RB Ajayi, they will also double-up on Miami’s underrated star WR Jarvis Landry. Moore is likely to be under plenty of pressure when he does pass, and the Steelers had 25 sacks during their 7-game winning streak which was the most in the NFL. The Dolphins also have far less playoff experience, and overall their personal and play is not as strong as Pittsburgh’s.

The Steelers are a playoff veteran team and fit a number of positive profiles including playing with redemption for the loss to Miami in October. The Steelers have great momentum and are playing very strong and sound football as a confident and cohesive core entering the playoffs. During their winning streak to close the season and excluding the Browns game (rested starters), the Steelers out-gained six opponents by an average of 120 yards per game. Sunday’s contest will likely be even more one sided from a yards perspective, as the Steelers roll up over 30 points in victory against a deficient Dolphins defense.