NFL Handicapping – Monday Night Doubleheader

NFL Week 1 Kicks off with Monday Night Doubleheader

A pair of Monday night match-ups features the road teams getting favoritism. The Steelers travel to Washington to face the Redskins out East in Inter-conference action, while the relocated Los Angeles Rams travel to northern California for a division dual against the San Francisco 49ers. The Monday Night doubleheader follows a wild opening week in which close games dominated the NFL action and underdogs rewarded their betting backers overall going 9-4-1 ATS.

Here are my thoughts and analysis on the two Monday night games to conclude Week 1. A little incentive on the Steelers and Redskins total with a live parlay ticket, included in an already huge week of winners.

Monday, September 12, 2016

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Washington Redskins

Total: 49.5

Both teams made the playoffs last season with the Redskins a surprise NFC East winner going 9-7 including 6-2 at home at FedEx Field. Washington was 4-12 the previous season, so significant gains were made with quarterback Kirk Cousins taking over the offensive controls. The betting market was not sold on the Reskins, who were a home underdog six times last season but won 5 of those games outright! Yet none of those victories came against a playoff team, and Washington did not beat a single team that made the post-season last year.  A tougher 2016 schedule starts opening week under the Monday night lights.

The Steelers went 10-6 last season and then won a crazy playoff game at Cincinnati, 18-16. Pittsburgh then blew it against the Broncos in Denver, losing in the divisional round 23-16. Ben Roethlisberger passed for 339 yards in that loss at Denver against the league’s No. 1 pass and overall defense. And he did it without leading receiver Antonio Brown or running back Le’Veon Bell, who is suspended for the first three games of this season. Brown should have a big night, but the Steelers will also play without WR Martavis Bryant, who was handed a one-year suspension by the NFL – stop the drugs! Tight end Ladarius Green is also out for at least six weeks following ankle surgery. But QB Big Ben has even more command and control of this up-tempo offense, and he passed for nearly 4,000 yards in just 12 games last season with an elite 8.40 yards per pass attempt. The Steelers offensive line has a chance to be one of the NFL’s best, especially with healthy Maurkice Pouncey back at center. And that’s assuming tackle Marcus Gilbert’s elbow injury doesn’t turn out to be lingering.

Following the preseason game against New Orleans, Big Ben said, “I think our base offense is going to be up-tempo.” The Steelers ran 16 of 19 plays from the no-huddle with Big Ben leading two drives of 153 yards and two touchdowns against the Saints. The no-huddle, up-tempo attack looks like it will be a bigger part of the plan and a way to overcome shortcomings with personnel while also creating favorable matchups against a seemingly always double-teamed Antonio Brown.

The Redskins defense is still sub-par despite the addition of All-Pro cornerback Josh Norman. And their special teams units were poor last season. The Steelers will push the pace, but there dreadful pass defense from a season ago that also ranked no. 31 overall in yards against could struggle to slow the Redskins and QB Cousins, who was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL last season while passing for over 4,100 yards, 29 TDs and a top-5 QB rating. The Steelers have some talented, young defenders including linebacker Ryan Shazier, and Pittsburgh was pretty solid against the run last season when teams weren’t carving up their secondary. But the ball should be in the air plenty by both teams with 800 total yards of combined offense no surprise.

The Redskins are 0-3 SU/ATS in season openers the last three years, but the Steelers have burned their betting backers in five straight season openers going 0-5 ATS. Washington is the only team in the NFC East to return both their quarterback and head coach this season. But the Steelers have the superior signal caller and more potent attack to secure a likely higher-scoring victory.

Monday, September 12, 2016

Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers

Total 42.5

In the night cap out West, the 49ers host the Rams in beautiful Levi Stadium with new head coach Chip Kelly on the sidelines. A season to forget for both these teams and their offenses, which ranked No. 31 and 32 in the league last season. Another team that got little respect at home last season, the 49er’s were a home underdog in all eight home games, but went 5-3 ATS. They upset Minnesota on this field 20-3 to kick off last season’s Monday night action, while the Rams surprised Seattle in Week 1 last season to win 34-31 in OT as a home ‘Dog.

The Rams shutdown the 49ers at home in St. Louis last season 27-6, but couldn’t pull the season sweep in week 17 losing 19-16 on this field as a 3-point favorite. However, stud running back Todd Gurley did not play in the season finale with a foot injury. Jeff Fisher is under more pressure as the Rams head coach, and LA will go heavy with star RB Gurley, last year’s offensive rookie of the year who rushed for over 100 yards in his first four games last season starting in week 4. The Rams defense lost four starters including DE Chris Long and middle LB James Laurinaitis, so it’s a little bit of a guess to project strength or how they will handle or slow the 49er’s new up-tempo attack. Case Keenum starts at quarterback for the Rams, as rookie overall No. 1 pick Jared Goff is not yet ready for prime time.

The San Fran up-temp and spread scheme under coach Kelly is also a run-heavy attack, and running back Carlos Hyde will be a workhorse as well. It could be a little risky playing under the total until we see how coach Kelly plays it with the pace and how QB Blaine Gabbert grasps the offense in tougher game conditions. The Rams have covered just one game as road favorite in the last four years and were 0-2 ATS in that role last season including the loss on this field to San Francisco. But Gurley rushed for 133 yards on 20 carries in his lone appearance against the 49ers last season, and the Rams are ready to take the wraps off him following preseason action. My rushing and running game projections suggest the Rams will have a solid edge in rushing yards, making them the percentage play to win and cover.