NFL Handicapping – Inside the Numbers Week 3

NFL Week 3 Handicapping and Analyzing Stats

Week 3 was another winner for the underdogs players and sports books, as ‘Dogs went 10-6 ATS. In fact, favorites won the game straight up in just 8 of the 16 games. Home underdogs were strong again going 4-1 ATS, and for the season, home ‘Dogs are 11-3-1 ATS.

Close Calls and Point Spread Plays of the Week

Some close calls with line moves impacted betting results, and I had a top play and bet on the Jaguars and won taking 2.5 and also buying it to plus-3 on game day. The Jaguars teaser worked out too, but a money line bet did not in disappointing fashion. The Ravens beat the Jaguars 19-17 on a last minute field goal, and Baltimore was a 1-2 point favorite until Sunday. The Jaguars had the game in hand late, but could not convert key downs and had a field goal blocked following a late interception that appeared to nearly seal the game. The Ravens then converted a fourth down on their final drive before getting a 54-yard game-winning field goal from star kicker Justin Tucker. The game was awful to watch, as the two teams combined for the worst offensive efficiency of the week with the Ravens gaining just 283 yards at 4.4 yards per play and the Jaguars miserable performance with 216 yards and 3.4 yards per play.

Laying Road Favorites, and Greater Than a Field Goal a Bad Bet

I mentioned last week that square bettors were learning their lesson betting road favorites of greater than a field goal. Hopefully they took the advice, as once again, some public-supported road favorites took it in the ‘back side’. It’s a bad bet or at least a poor percentage play to lay more than a field goal on the road in the NFL, and the popular favorites of Arizona (-5, lost 33-18 at Buffalo) and Pittsburgh (-4, lost 34-3 at Philadelphia) were crushed on the road. The Ravens (-2.5) escaped but did not cover thanks to the Jaguars gifts, and the Texans (-1) were pounded by the Patriots 27-0 last Thursday at New England. Only the Raiders (-1.5) were able to win as a road favorite this week, and that was certainly in part to Tennessee’s three turnovers.

Many fans and bettors see the final scores and make judgments based on results. But it’s important to not overreact to one game or a few poor performances, and the Rams have now won back to back games as underdog following their embarrassing week 1 shutout loss at San Francisco.

However, the Bears are now 0-3 SU/ATS, and it’s clear that Chicago’s defensive injuries and now a change at QB has them reeling. The Browns lost again and stand 0-3, but they did cover in a overtime defeat and have at least shown the ability to run the ball effectively which speaks to better offensive line play.

I’ve been tracking and loading box score data into spread sheets and have kept a proprietary database of statistical information for over a dozen years. I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many NFL games. I utilize relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations as just part of the process to assist me in football betting and providing more point spread winners. I try to isolate match-up advantages at the line of scrimmage in determining both rushing success and stopping the run. Same with passing game potential, as a team that picks up the pace and passes more may be able to tear apart an opponent’s secondary without relying on the running game as much. What I’ve learned and relied on over the years is that despite some moderate gains in passing yards and attempts in recent years along with rules changes to allow more scoring, the game is still often won or lost at the line of scrimmage. The ability to have running game success and/or to stop the run affects the game in many ways, both offensively and defensively.

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Let’s take a look at some of the stats of note from week 3, and use some of this moving forward in isolating match-up advantages.

NFL Inside the Numbers Week 3

In week 3, NFL favorites went 8-8 straight up (SU) and 6-10 against the spread (ATS). Some close calls each week with line moves, so there is some subjective data such as rating the Jaguars an ATS winner while those that bet the Ravens earlier were able to win. Totals went 8-8 over/under and we had a ‘over’ the total winner in the Falcons 45-32 shootout win over the Saints with game analysis provided here.

Running to Point Spread Profit

Week threw had an amazing 14 games in which a team out-rushed their opponent by at least 30 yards. But those teams were just 8-6 ATS this week.

Teams that rushed the ball for 150 or more yards in week 2 went 3-1 SU and ATS. The Patriots, Panthers and Chargers were the winners, while the Raiders lost despite a strong, balanced offensive attack. Atlanta beat Oakland with the best offensive performance of the week with an even more balanced and efficient attack.

Some big passing games were irrelevant again this week, showing that the running game and ability to control the ball, clock and chains while protecting the football is more important that the pretty passing yards. Clearly, you need to have a QB that can make plays and passes. Good protection helps. But teams like the Jets, Bills, Browns, 49ers and Bears have virtually no chance to ever make a run to the Super Bowl with their current crop of crappy quarterbacks. Six interceptions this week for Jets QB Fitzpatrick, while the Bucs Winston put up big numbers while passing 58 times, but Tampa was controlled at the line of scrimmage, which was a surprise to this analyst. The Saints were run over at the point of attack and QB Drew Brees passed 54 times for 376 yards. Again, pretty numbers in a crushing defeat 45-32. Read my article last week and you’ll see that these teams that pass the ball 45 times or more per game rarely win or cover in the NFL.

Teams that rushed the ball at least 29 times went 7-1 ATS in week 3, and that followed a 11-1 ATS result in week 2. The Bengals were the only team that failed, despite out-rushing the Broncos 143-52, as key turnovers and big passing plays allowed hurt Cincinnati In defeat.

Teams that out-rushed their opponent by at least 30 yards went 9-6 ATS. That stat guideline is now 25-9 ATS this season. Determine who will outrush their opponent by this margin and control the ball, clock and chains and you’re well on your way to more point spread winners. This has delivered a 75% ATS result on average since the year 2000, with no season below 70%. I have the box scores and data base to prove it.

Big ground gainers in week 3 rushing included:

Yards/Attempts with Straight-up (SU) and Against the Spread (ATS) results
Team	Yards	Yards per Attempt	SU/ATS
Falcons	217	31	W/W
Bills	208	32	W/W
Cowboys	199	41	W/W
Patriots	185	39	W/W
Titans	181	29	L/W
Browns	169	32	L/W
Bengals	143	29	L/L
Rams	137	33	W/W

Teams that failed to get their ground game going included:
Team	Yards	Yards per Attempt	SU/ATS
Steelers	29	10	L/L
Chargers	37	17	L/L
Jaguars	48	21	L/W
Lions	50	23	L/L
Broncos	52	23	W/W
Vikings	58	24	W/W
Bears	73	15	L/L

Credit must also be given to defenses and their ability to slow the opponents running game, and that’s part of the weekly handicap in determining running game success or failure each week in the match-up analysis. The Vikings did just that this week slowing Carolina’s league-best running game while containing Superman and sacking QB Cam Newton 8 times with 3 interceptions in a 22-10 road win.

Efficient Offenses and Yards Per Play

The NFL average for yards per play is approximately 5.5. Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in week 3:

Team	Total Yards	Yards Per Play	SU/ATS
Saints	474	6.0	L/L
Giants	457	7.5	L/L
Redskins	403	5.9	W/W
Cowboys	447	6.9	W/W
Falcons	442	7.01	W/W
Dolphins	426	6.6	W/L
Seahawks	419	6.4	W/W
Lions	418	6.2	L/L
Colts	410	6.4	W/W
Raiders	368	6.01	W/W

Note how the yards were accumulated each week, passing vs rushing and if a team was playing from behind and forced to abandon their running game in the second half, any overtime yards and injury impacts during a game.

Struggling Offenses

Some poor offensive performances in week 3 included:

Jaguars	216	3.4	L/W
Vikings	211	3.9	W/W
Steelers	251	4.5	L/L
49ers	254	4.5	W/W
Ravens	283	4.4	W/L
Patriots	283	4.8	W/W
Texans	284	4.1	L/L
Chiefs	293	4.8	W/W
Bills	296	4.8	W/W
NY Jets	305	4.6	L/L

Turnover Troubles and Penalty Problems

Historically, teams that suffer a minus three (-3) or greater turnover differential in a game have little chance to win and cover (7% ATS). Last season, on nearly 40 occurrences and games with a 3 or greater turnover differential, the team on the short end of the turnovers won and covered just one time each. The Titans (3-0) Panthers and Cardinals (5-1) all suffered turnover troubles and the Jets had a most forgettable day with 8 turnovers including 6 INT’s by QB Fitzpatrick in a 24-3 drubbing at Kansas City. All four teams had a negative (-3) or greater differential, leading to SU and ATS losses.

The Browns (13 penalties for 91 yards) and Giants (11/128) were this week’s most penalized teams that couldn’t overcome the yellow flags. The bad news Browns were also the only team (out of 8) in week 3 to lose a game despite being plus-2 or greater in turnover margin.

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis.