NFL Handicapping – Inside the Numbers Week 12

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers Week 12

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners.

Week 12 was a bad one for us despite Top Play winners on the Broncos outright over the Patriots 30-24 in OT and the Seahawks/Steelers game over the total in Seattle’s 39-30 shootout victory. The Buccaneers let us down despite a 132-27 rushing advantage as handicapped – a 79% ATS success indicator this season and 75% over the past dozen years as you’ll see below. Tampa Bay out-gained Indy with a 5.5 to 4.7 yards per play differential, but 12 penalties did them in. The Steelers piled up 538 yards at 7.2 yards per play against Seattle knowing they could not run the ball effectively, but they gave the ball away four times with a 4-0 turnover differential – a death sentence when trying to cover the spread. Finally, the Jaguars out-rushed, out-gained and out-yarded the Chargers with a 6.0 to 5.2 yards per play advantage, but failed to score a TD on three trips inside the 10 yard line.  That can be the frustration of the NFL when you’re handicapping even plays out as planned at times, but the results don’t follow.

Here are some Week 12 stats of note.

Favorites went 10-6 SU and 9-7 ATS while totals finished 8-7-1 over/under. Some eye-opening stats of note showed the Steelers piling up 538 yards at 7.2 yards per play at Seattle including 480 passing, but four costly turnovers cost them in defeat. The Packers rushed for 177 yards at home on Thanksgiving but lost to the rival Bears as a big favorite despite just 290 yards offense for Chicago. The Saints had just 50 yards rushing and only ran the ball 10 times in a one-sided defeat off their bye. Towel tosser and not a good sign with a likely out-going head coach Sean Payton in New Orleans. Adrian Peterson added to his league-leading rushing as the Vikings top-rushing attack rolled up 191 more to take over first place in the NFC North with a 20-10 road win against the flailing Falcons.  The Giants off their bye rushed for just 33 yards on 13 carries in defeat as a favorite at Washington, and the Colts had just 27 rushing yards on 26 carries – and won despite a 132-27 rushing disadvantage. Similar rushing dominance for the Jets over the Dolphins with a 137-12 rushing advantage, but New York won as you should 38-20.

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Good fortune in the turnover column helps too. After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation. The Cowboys (3-0), Giants (3-0) and Steelers (4-0) suffered turnover troubles in Week 12 with a negative turnover differential of 3 or more. Those teams are now 1-31 SU and ATS this season when they suffer a three (3) or greater turnover differential.

Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point of attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, weather and more.

This year it’s worth noting that teams playing off a bye and not playing a team off a bye were 15-7 ATS going into the final bye week, but 0-4 SU/ATS last week as the Giants, Saints, Steelers and Browns all lost SU/ATS. Teams off a bye who won SU and ATS the week before their bye finished 10-2 ATS as the Steelers took a tough ATS loss last week.

Week 12 big ground gainers in rushing included the Vikings (191 rush yards/39 attempts), Broncos (179/32), Packers (177/28), Texans (167/38), Chiefs (158/27), Bengals (140/31) and NY Jets (137/34).

The Dolphins (12/9 whoa!), Colts (27/26), Cowboys (31/14), NY Giants (33/13), Patriots (39/16), Titans (44/18), Saints (50/10) and Browns (63/18) all struggled to get their running game going in defeat, except for the Colts who managed a victory.

But the point of all this is that rushing stats and point of attack play often trumps passing prowess a majority of the time. When you have a few top-tier quarterbacks that can overcome a poor ground game or use it as a short passing attack (Brady), sometimes a lack of a running game can work out as it almost did for short-handed New England again before they suffered their first loss of the season to Denver. A dominant defense helps. But regardless of all the talking heads telling you that teams must have a passing game to succeed in the NFL, I’ll point you to my weekly articles and stats that suggest otherwise and that perception is not reality in the pass/run success argument of the NFL. We have the adjust to the rules and changes in the game allowing for more passing game success and now more scoring in recent seasons, but the game is still about blocking, tackling, running and catching and the team that controls the line of scrimmage, establishes a running game (or more attempts) and minimizes turnovers is often the team that comes out on top.

Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in week 12 victories were the Seahawks (436 yards/7.4 yards per play), Broncos (433/5.6), Lions (430/6.1), Chiefs (413/7.1), Raiders (407/5.9), NY Jets (411/5.7), Redskins (407/6.2) and Bengals (376/6.4). Inefficient offensive teams included the Cowboys (210/3.8), Eagles (227/3.9), Titans (249/4.4), Saints (268/4.8) and Patriots (301/4.9). The league average is approximately 5.4 yards-per-play.

Week 13 early projections suggest the following teams may have an advantage at the point of attack and out-rush their opponents by a potential margin: Bengals, Ravens, Panthers, Buccaneers, NY Jets, Broncos, Chiefs, Cowboys and Steelers

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis.