NFL Handicapping – Inside the Numbers Week 11

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers Week 11

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners.

Week 11 was a losing one for us as the Rams and Cardinals both blew double-digit fourth quarter leads.

Here are some Week 11 stats of note.

Favorites went 9-5 SU and 6-6-2 ATS while totals finished 5-9 over/under. Some eye-opening stats of note showed the Bears without any penalties yet still losing to the Broncs at home despite 8 penalties for 118 yards on Denver.  The Redskins had just 9 first downs, 14 rushing yards and five turnovers as they were blasted by the undefeated Carolina Panthers 44-16.  The Buccaneers rushed for 283 yards and 521 total yards while the Seahawks also rushed for 255 yards.

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Good fortune in the turnover column helps too. After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation. The Redskins (5-0) and Eagles (4-1) suffered turnover troubles in Week 11 with a negative turnover differential of 3 or more. Those teams are now 1-28 SU and ATS this season when they suffer a 3 or greater turnover differential.

Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point of attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, weather and more.

This year it’s worth noting that teams playing off a bye are 15-7 ATS this season (not including teams that played each other following their bye). Teams off a bye who won SU and ATS the week before their bye are 10-1 ATS the week after their bye with only the lowly San Francisco 49ers failing in that role this past week at Seattle.  The Steelers fit that profile this week off their bye.

Week 11 big ground gainers in rushing included the Buccaneers (283 rush yards/42 attempts), Seahawks (255/44), Broncos (170/36), Cowboys (166/38), Chiefs (153/31), Panthers (142/39), Packers (124/34) and Texans (123/37). Notice all these teams that won rushed the ball at least 30 times in victory; another key indicator when analyzing rushing stats in match-up analysis.

The Redskins (14/12 whoa!), Raiders (50/21), Chargers (52/25), 49ers (59/16) and Dolphins (70/14) all struggled to get their running game going in defeat.

But the point of all this is that rushing stats and point of attack play often trumps passing prowess a majority of the time. When you have a few top-tier quarterbacks that can overcome a poor ground game or use it as a short passing attack (Brady), sometimes a lack of a running game can work out. A dominant defense helps. But regardless of all the talking heads telling you that teams must have a passing game to succeed in the NFL, I’ll point you to my weekly articles and stats that suggest otherwise and that perception is not reality in the pass/run success argument of the NFL. We have the adjust to the rules and changes in the game allowing for more passing game success and now more scoring in recent seasons, but the game is still about blocking, tackling, running and catching and the team that controls the line of scrimmage, establishes a running game (or more attempts) and minimizes turnovers is often the team that comes out on top.

Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in week 11 victories were the Buccaneers (521 yards/7.2 yards per play),  Seahawks (507/6.8), Broncos (389/5.7), Chiefs (385/6.5) and Cardinals (383/6.6). Inefficient offensive teams included the Redskins (186/4.0), Chargers (201/3.5), Rams (213/3.8), Dolphins (210/5.1), Raiders (214/4.6) and NY Jets (26/4.2). The league average is approximately 5.4 yards-per-play.

Week 12 early projections suggest the following teams may have an advantage at the point of attack and out-rush their opponents by a potential margin: Texans, Buccaneers, Jets, Jaguars, Cardinals, Ravens.

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis.