NFL Handicapping – Inside the Numbers Week 10

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers Week 10

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners.

Week 10 we identified the Kansas City Chiefs in a strong situation off their bye with motivation against a weakened Peyton Mainning and released the Chiefs (+6) early week to members as our lone 20* Top Play Big Bertha and the Chiefs tomahawked and buried the Broncos 29-13. Our side plays were 3-3 with a pair of additional opinion winners, but a disappointment as I identified many underdogs and didn’t follow through.

Here are some Week 10 stats of note.

Favorites went just 3-11 SU and 2-12 ATS as underdogs ruled the day and week with 11 outright winners. Totals went 4-7-2 over/under. Some eye-opening stats of note showed the Browns with just 15 rushing yards on 14 attempts. The Titans had just 11 first downs and the Cowboys 12 and 216 total yards. Adrian Peterson rushed for over 200 yards and the Vikings pounded the ground with 266 rushing yards. The Saints defense is a disaster allowing 514 yards and 8.7 yards per play – both week high’s (worst).

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Good fortune in the turnover column helps too. After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation. The Jets (4-0), Ravens (4-1) and Broncos (5-0) all suffered turnover troubles in Week 10 with a negative turnover differential of 3 or more (1-22 ATS). Peyton Manning tossed four more INT’s and clearly was playing injured, and Brock Osweiler takes over as Denver’s QB until Manning is healthy.

NFL teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent ( at least 30 yards ) went ATS in week 10. Teams that rushed for at least 150 yards went SU and ATS including our Top Play winner on the Chiefs. For the season, this 30-yard rushing guideline and situation is 70-24 ATS (74%) including 26-5 ATS over the last three weeks. We’ll discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners. Clearly it’s not an easy forecast and when a team falls behind by margin they often have to abandon the running game.  For over a decade, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread approx. 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average. Pay attention to offensive line play and key injuries along the line as those can greatly affect the teams rushing attack and game plan.

Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point of attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, weather and more.

this year it’s worth noting that teams playing off a bye are ATS, and those off a bye who won SU and ATS the week before their bye are 9-0 ATS the week after their bye. That includes the Chiefs, Cardinals and Texans in week 10, who were all winners for us.

Week 10 big ground gainers in rushing included the Vikings (263 rush yards/33 attempts), Redskins (213/31), Bears (153/37), Bills (148/33) and Saints (158/25) in defeat to Redskins. Notice all these teams that won rushed the ball at least 30 times in victory; another key indicator when analyzing rushing stats in match-up analysis.

The  Browns (15/14 whoa!), Cowboys (42/21), Packers (47/18),  Titans (64/21), Broncos (69/16) and Bengals (73/21) all struggled to get their running game going in defeat.

But the point of all this is that rushing stats and point of attack play often trumps passing prowess a majority of the time. When you have a few top-tier quarterbacks that can overcome a poor ground game or use it as a short passing attack (Brady), sometimes a lack of a running game can work out. A dominant defense helps. But regardless of all the talking heads telling you that teams must have a passing game to succeed in the NFL, I’ll point you to my weekly articles and stats that suggest otherwise and that perception is not reality in the pass/run success argument of the NFL. We have the adjust to the rules and changes in the game allowing for more passing game success and now more scoring in recent seasons, but the game is still about blocking, tackling, running and catching and the team that controls the line of scrimmage, establishes a running game (or more attempts) and minimizes turnovers is often the team that comes out on top.

Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in week 10 victories were the Redskins (514 yards/8.7 yards per play), Steelers (459/7.8), Cardinals (451/5.4), Patriots (406/6.0), Bears (397/6.3) and Vikings (385/6.5). Inefficient offensive teams included the Cowboys (216/4.1), Broncos (221/3.4), Bengals (256/4.1) and in victory the Bills (280/4.4), Jaguars (253/3.7) and Texans (256/4.2). The league average is approximately 5.4 yards-per-play.

Week 11 early projections suggest the following teams may have an advantage at the point of attack and out-rush their opponents by a potential margin: Jaguars, Panthers, Rams, Jets, Vikings, Chiefs.

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis.