NFL Handicapping – Inside the Numbers 2020 Through Week 6

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – Inside the Numbers 2020

Throughout the NFL season, I go inside the numbers and review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners. This week we’ll go Inside the Numbers 2020 with a compilaton of stats and rushing numbers through Week 6.

I provide additional details and analysis in my NFL inside the numbers 2020 breakdown at Offshore Gaming Association.

Throughout my career of handicapping success, strategies and sports betting stories, I’ve seen the peaks and valley’s of betting on pro football. Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Good fortune in the turnover column helps too. After all, teams that are plus-3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 92% winning ATS situation and 11-1 SU and 12-0 ATS this season. In fact, teams that are exactly plus-2 in turnover margin 20-2-1 SU and 21-2 ATS, so you can see the impact of a positive turnover differential of two or more during an NFL contest.

NFL Handicapping – Fundamentals Remain the Same

While we hear more and more about how the NFL is more of a passing league, I provide stats that show the importance of running the ball and stopping the run, and the impact on not only winning football games, but also covering point spreads. If you can become better at analyzing match-ups and identify when a team will have more success running the ball and/or stopping the run, you’ll increase your ATS winning percentage.

There are many ways to handicap NFL games. But while the talking heads and more media members break into the business with legal sports betting growing to 19 states in the U.S., you’re going to hear more and more opinions and reasons why teams will or did win or lose. More computer and math models are being created, and many ridiculous and meaningless trends are used as a lazy way to try and justify why a team will win or lose.

Record scoring is part of the Inside the Numbers 2020 NFL season with games averging 51.4 points per game through six weeks. Sportsbooks are now posting at least 6-7 totals each week at 50 points or higher.

Rushing Success and Point of Attach Play

While the game continues to evolve with more scoring, rules changes and safety at the forefront, pro football is still a game of running, passing, blocking and tackling. There may be a bit more passing in today’s game, but I provide stats that show the importance of running the ball and stopping the run. That includes not just rushing for yardage, but how often a team runs the ball and the impact on winning football games and covering the point spread. If you can become better at analyzing match-ups and identify when a team will have more success running the ball and/or stopping the run, you’ll increase your ATS winning percentage.

When I updated the stats on these pages last year through 14 weeks, there were six teams that rushed the ball at least 30 times per game and five teams were averaging at least 135 rushing yards per game. The top five teams in rushing attempts per game all made the playoffs.

This season there are currently eight teams that run the ball at least 30 times per game, and the Kansas City Chiefs are No. 9 at 29.7 rushing attempts per game. There are also 10 teams that rush for at least 135 yards per game led by the Browns (169), Patriots (167), Ravens (164), Cardinals (161) and Titans (158), who rushed for 263 yards in last week’s 42-36 overtime win over the Houston Texans. The Cardinals (263) and Chiefs (245) also had huge rushing games last week in easy road wins.

The importance of controlling the line of scrimmage and running the ball or stopping the run is not just about yards from scrimmage. It’s also about rushing attempts and controlling the ball, clock and chains. Here’s proof.

44-13-1 SU and 44-13-1 ATS (77%) – teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a game (historically approx. 75%).
29-7-1 SU and 30-6-1 ATS (77%) – teams that run for at least 150 yards in a game
53-6-1 SU and 50-8-2 ATS (86%) – teams that run the ball at least 30 times in a game
6-42-1 SU and 6-43 ATS (12%) – teams that run the ball less than 23 times in a game

Note that there are just a few games when both teams may rush for 150 or more yards, or rush the ball 30 or more times in game and those contests are not included in the stats.

The key is to interpret data and projected which teams will have more success in a match-up running the ball and/or stopping the run. Other factors, stats and variables including injuries and now COVID-19 are part of the evaluation and process. But we’ll evaluate more stats and provide additional information you can bet on throughout the season.

You can bet on it.