NFL Handicapping – Inside the Numbers Week 2

NFL Week 2 Handicapping and Analyzing Stats

Week 2 saw more underdogs deliver, with home ‘Dogs taking the biggest bites. The Vikings and Rams won outright as home ‘Dogs while the Browns lost but covered, making it a 3-0 ATS week for home underdogs. Home underdogs are now 7-2-1 ATS this season. For calculations, I rated the Texans as a slight favorite as they were favored until early game day before the Chiefs took the money with Kansas City closing a 1-point road favorite.

Like week 1, there were plenty of line moves and some that impacted the closing point spread, namely with the Browns, who blew a 20-point lead as a 6’-point underdog before losing 25-20 with the closing number showing the Ravens a 4-point favorite. I again rated the Browns an ATS winner, as most bettors likely won but those that waited to bet the bad Browns got another dose of reality.

Square bettors also leaned another lesson in betting the NFL. It’s a bad bet or at least a poor percentage play to lay more than a field goal on the road in the NFL, and the popular favorites of Baltimore (-6 or 6.5 until game day) and Seattle (-6.5) failed to get the money with the Seahawks losing outright to the Rams, 9-3. As ugly as that was, clearly bettors over-reacted to the Browns and Rams putrid performances in week 1. Most also overreacted to the matchups with the Lions (1-0) vs. the Titans (0-1) and the Raiders (1-0) vs. the Falcons (0-1). I had a top play on the Titans (+6 or 6.5) in their 16-15 win at Detroit, part of our 4-0 week for members. After all, straight-up road underdog winners in week 1 who are favored in week 2 (Lions and Raiders) are greater than an 85% ATS play against. Put that in your database for next season and play the sharp side with support.

Many fans and bettors see the final scores and make judgments based on results. But it’s important to not overreact to one game or a few poor performances, and the Rams week 2 win along with the Browns bounce back performance in defeat (387 yards at 6.6 yards per play) should prove the point. However, other team’s struggles like the Bears, who are 0-2 with less than 285 yards offense in each of their first two games, need to be looked at more closely. Clearly injuries and shuffling of personnel needs to be evaluated and considered every week, along with the performances, scheduling and of course the match-ups and stats.

NFL Week 2 betting wrap up

I’ve been tracking and loading box score data into spread sheets and have kept a proprietary database of statistical information for over a dozen years. I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many NFL games. I utilize relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations as just part of the process to assist me in football betting and providing more point spread winners. I try to isolate match-up advantages at the line of scrimmage in determining both rushing success and stopping the run. Same with passing game potential, as a team that picks up the pace and passes more may be able to tear apart an opponent’s secondary without relying on the running game as much. What I’ve learned and relied on over the years is that despite some moderate gains in passing yards and attempts in recent years along with rules changes to allow more scoring, the game is still often won or lost at the line of scrimmage. The ability to have running game success and/or to stop the run affects the game in many ways, both offensively and defensively.

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Let’s take a look at some of the stats of note from week 2, and use some of this moving forward in isolating match-up advantages.

NFL Inside the Numbers Week 2

In week 2, NFL favorites went 9-7 straight up (SU) and 7-9 against the spread (ATS). Some close calls each week with line moves, so there is some subjective data such as rating the Browns an ATS winner and rating the Texans and Bills as favorites when the line was bouncing between -1 and +1 on both sides. Totals went 8-7-1 over/under and we had a great week betting totals and also chipped in teaser winners using the Broncos, Cowboys and Vikings.

Running to Point Spread Profit

To prove our point in the importance of running game yards and success versus passing yards, look no further than week 2. Success in the running game can also mean more rushing attempts, and it doesn’t necessarily have to equate to more rushing yards.

Teams that rushed the ball for 150 or more yards in week 2 went 3-1 SU and ATS. The Patriots, Panthers and Chargers were the winners, while the Raiders lost despite a strong, balanced offensive attack. Atlanta beat Oakland with the best offensive performance of the week with an even more balanced and efficient attack.

Compare that to the passing stats. The ‘highlight’ stats and passing game that everyone likes to talk about and watch. These teams passed the ball at least 45 times in week 2, and all lost the game going a combined 0-6 SU/ATS. Bengals (54), Buccaneers (52), Jaguars (50), Redskins (46), Raiders (45) and Dolphins (45).

Teams that rushed the ball at least 29 times went 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS and included the Patriots (38), Panthers (37), Steelers (36), Jets (36), Chargers (35), Texans (34), Eagles (32), Giants (32), Broncos (31), Cowboys (30), Cardinals (29), Falcons (29). The Giants (-4.5) won 16-13 with a 417-288 yard edge over the Saints, but three turnovers were costly with a 3-0 differential.

Teams that out-rushed their opponent by at least 30 yards went 8-1 ATS. That stat guideline is now 16-3 ATS this season. Determine who will outrush their opponent by this margin and control the ball, clock and chains and you’re well on your way to more point spread winners. This has delivered a 75% ATS result on average since the year 2000, with no season below 70%. I have the box scores and data base to prove it.

Big ground gainers in week 2 rushing included:

(Yards/Attempts with straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) results).

Team	Rush Yds	Attempts	SU/ATS
Panthers	176	37	W/W
Patriots	161	38	W/W
Chargers	150	35	W/W
Falcons	139	29	W/W
Titans	139	24	W/W
Broncos	134	31	W/W
Steelers	124	36	W/W
Jets	123	35	W/W

The Raiders (155/25) and Browns (145/23) also had good games running the ball, but lost despite out-rushing the opponent.

Teams that failed to get their ground game going included:

Team	Rush Yards	Attempts	SU/ATS
Saints	41	13	L/W
Bengals	46	18	L/L
Bears	64	18	L/L
49ers	65	26	L/L
Seahawks	67	24	L/L
Jaguars	69	11	L/L
Dolphins	70	16	L/L

The Vikings (30/22) and Rams (64/25) managed to win and cover low-scoring defensive duels. Clearly, credit must also be given to defenses and their ability to slow the opponents running game, and that’s part of the weekly handicap in determining running game success or failure each week in the match-up analysis.

Efficient Offenses and Yards Per Play

The NFL average for yards per plays is approximately 5.5. Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in week 2 victories:

Team	Total Yards	Yards Per Play	SU/ATS
Falcons	528	8.3	W/W
Panthers	528	6.8	W/W
Jets	493	6.9	W/W
Patriots	465	6.1	W/W
Giants	417	5.6	W/L
Cardinals	416	6.4	W/W
Broncos	400	6.2	W/W
Cowboys	380	5.9	W/W
Titans	363	6.1	W/W
Chargers	357	5.7	W/W

The Raiders (464/6.4) were balanced and efficient in defeat to the Falcons.

Note how the yards were accumulated each week, passing vs rushing and if a team was playing from behind and forced to abandon their running game in the second half, any overtime yards and injury impacts during a game.

Struggling Offenses

Some poor offensive performances in week 2 included:

Team	Total Yards	Yards Per Play	SU/ATS
Colts	253	3.8	L/L
Packers	263	4.1	L/L
Eagles	280	4.1	W/W
Vikings	284	5.01	W/W
Rams	284	4.9	W/W
Saints	288	4.9	L/W
Chiefs	291	4.9	L/L
49ers	302	4.7	L/L
Bucs	306	4.01	L/L
Packers	263	4.1	L/L
Seahawks	306	5.01	L/L

 

Turnover Troubles and Penalty Problems

Historically, teams that suffer a minus three (-3) or greater turnover differential in a game have little chance to win and cover (7% ATS). Last season, on nearly 40 occurrences and games with a 3 or greater turnover differential, the team on the short end of the turnovers won and covered just one time each. The Giants (3-0) won but failed to cover in week 2, while the Bucs (5-0), Dolphins (4-1) and Bears (3-0) were not as fortunate as expected.

The Vikings overcame 13 penalties for 137 yards to hold off the Packers 17-14, while the Seahawks struggled with 10 penalties for 114 yards. The Jaguars were blown out early, ran the ball just 11 times and had 13 penalties for 93 yards to add to their problems.

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis.