NFL Handicapping – Inside the Numbers Week 5

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers Week 5

Throughout the NFL season, I go inside the numbers and review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners.  Week 5 was another good one for us, as we went 4-1 in the early games including 3-1 on our weekly Fairway’s Football Forecast underdog plays while just missing the sweep with the 49ers overtime loss. We mixed in a strong play using our projected point-of-attack play dominance on a favorite as the Eagles flew over the Cardinals 34-7. Missed a few late afternoon games, but overall a good week.

Each week I’ll provide various insights into NFL handicapping, and the weekly Inside the Numbers article will analyze stats and ways to utilize them and how rushing guidelines and handicapping point-of-attack play can put the percentages in your favor when wagering. This week I’ve also added a bye week article that show how some stronger teams do following their bye.

Here are some Week 5 stats of note.

You’re going to see differing ATS results based on line moves with the NE/TB, MN/CHI games landing between opening and closing numbers, and the Jets going from ‘Dog to favorite along with the Dolphins. I graded the Jets and Dolphins as ‘Dog, and the Patriots and Bears ATS winners, although I personally had the Vikings -2.5 Monday night. So, Week 5 NFL favorites went 5-9 ATS, and for the season favorites 31-46 ATS and totals are now 37-38 over/under.  Throughout the season there will be close calls on sides and totals, and while you can’t control the market or moves, you can become skilled at anticipating line moves and trying to get your bets in accordingly.

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Good fortune in the turnover column helps too. After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation. Turnover troubles in Week 5 included the Steelers (5-1) and Rams (5-2). Teams with a +3 or greater TO differential in a NFL game are now 15-1 SU/ATS this season and teams with exactly a +2 TO margin are 14-2 ATS.

Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent (at least 30 yards) went 5-4 SU/ATS for the worst week to date. Still, a very strong start to the season as these positive rushing teams are now 44-10 SU and 46-8 ATS, proving again that teams that control the ball, clock, chains and point-of-attack play on both sides of the ball have more SU/ATS success than teams that are forced to pass more often, and especially those teams with average or sub-par passing quarterbacks. We’ll discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners. For over a decade, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread nearly 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average.

Here are your week 5 stat leaders across the board. The leading rushers in week 5 were Leonard Fournette (181/6.5) of the Jaguars, Aaron Jones (125/6.6) of the Packers and Ezekiel Elliott (116) of the Cowboys.

The quarterback play is clearly most important in the NFL, but significant turnover differential (2 or more, and 3 or more is fatal) is what most impacts games and results. Tough to handicap that or poor officials calls of course, but if you get better at understanding and recognizing point of attack play and which teams will have success rushing the football and/or stopping the run, you’ll become more proficient and the point spread winners will follow. Many other factors come into play in evaluating games and match-ups, including the quarterback play. But the ability to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, weather and put all the stat profiles together will allow you to become better at handicapping the games.

Week 5 big ground gainers in rushing included the Jaguars (231 yards/37 attempts) in their road upset at Pittsburgh knocking many out of their survivor pools, Colts (159/35), Vikings (159/31), Ravens (143/39) and Eagles (122/33). Note the number of rushing attempts with many at least 30 times – another key indicator to point spread success. In fact through 5 weeks this season, teams that run the ball 30 or more times in a game (when their opponent does not) are 44-6 SU and 42-8 ATS. Control the ball, clock and chains, and you’ll open up the passing lanes, be more balanced on offense, and wear down more defenses.

Teams that struggled to get their ground game going included the Panthers (28 rushing yards/28 attempts), Cardinals (31/14), NY Jets  (34/18), and Lions (50/15). The Panthers still won (over Lions) and so did the Jets (over bad news Browns).

Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in victory were the Chiefs (450 yards/6.2 yppl), Colts (447/6.1), Eagles (419/6.5) and Patriots (402/6.1).

 Inefficient offensive teams included the Dolphins (178/3.0 – 2nd straight week under 190 yds), Titans (188/3.2)NY Jets (212/4.2), Bills (221/3.3), Seahawks (241/3.7) and Raiders (245/4.5).

The league average is approximately 5.4 to 5.5 yards-per-play, but lower thus far this season.

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis.