NFL Handicapping – Inside the Numbers Week 4

NFL Week 4 Handicapping and Analyzing Stats

Week 4 was pretty even across the betting board, as favorites went 8-7 SU and 8-7 ATS. The sports books got hurt in the prime time games, as Thursday, Sunday and Monday night favorites all rolled to easy wins (Bengals, Steelers and Vikings). Home underdogs had their first losing week of the season going 2-3 SU/ATS, and home ‘Dogs are not 13-6-1 ATS this season.

Close Calls and Point Spread Plays of the Week

I had a very good week betting sides and totals, although the Jets were a big disappointment in their home loss to the Seahawks. Quarterback Fitzpatrick tossed three more interceptions, giving him nine over the past two weeks. The Jets rushed for just 58 yards on 20 carries with 4.7 yards per play overall. Combined with a minus (-3) turnover margin and New York was no match for the Seahawks in a 27-17 defeat. The Raiders struggled on offense and overcame 12 penalties to score with just over 2 minutes remaining to win and cover at Baltimore, 28-27. The Saints stole a game and point spread cover at San Diego with two TD’s in the final five minutes to win 35-34 despite just 275 yards offense and 3.8 yards per play. The Rams had just 288 yards offense but were on the right side of a 5-1 turnover differential to upset the Cardinals, 17-13.

Evaluating the Box Scores and Stats

I’ve been tracking and loading box score data into spread sheets and have kept a proprietary database of statistical information for over a dozen years. I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many NFL games. I utilize relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations as just part of the process to assist me in football betting and providing more point spread winners. I try to isolate match-up advantages at the line of scrimmage in determining both rushing success and stopping the run. Same with passing game potential, as a team that picks up the pace and passes more may be able to tear apart an opponent’s secondary without relying on the running game as much. What I’ve learned and relied on over the years is that despite some moderate gains in passing yards and attempts in recent years along with rules changes to allow more scoring, the game is still often won or lost at the line of scrimmage. The ability to have running game success and/or to stop the run affects the game in many ways, both offensively and defensively.

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Let’s take a look at some of the stats of note from week 4, and use some of this moving forward in isolating match-up advantages.

NFL Inside the Numbers Week 4

In week 4, NFL favorites went 8-7 straight up (SU) and 8-7 against the spread (ATS). Some close calls each week with line moves, so there is some subjective data. Totals went 8-7 over/under and we had a strong week betting totals including Monday night’s match-up in the Vikings 24-10 win over the Giants.

Running to Point Spread Profit

Teams that rushed the ball for 150 or more yards in week 4 went 1-1 SU and ATS, and leave it to the bad news Browns to rush for 163 yards and out-gain the Redskins by 79 yards and still lose 31-20. The Patriots were shutout by the Bills at home 16-0 for New England’s first loss of the season, as Buffalo stampeded overland with 134 rushing yards to 90 for New England. The most impressive offensive performance was turned in by the Falcons, as Atlanta buried division rival Carolina as a home ‘Dog 48-33. The Falcons piled up 571 yards at a remarkable 8.8 yards per play, and Matt Ryan passed for over 500 yards with WR Julio Jones catching a touchdown on 12 receptions for 300 yards!

Some big passing games were irrelevant again this week, showing that the running game and ability to control the ball, clock and chains while protecting the football is more important that the pretty passing yards. Clearly, you need to have a QB that can make plays and passes. Good protection helps, but this week Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston could not solve a top-tier Broncos defense in a 27-7 home defeat. Winston passed for less than 180 yards with 2 INT’s. He was sacked five times and posted a QB rating of 40.

Teams that rushed the ball at least 29 times went 8-1 SU/ATS in week 4. That makes it 26-3 ATS the last 3 weeks for those teams that have rushed the ball at least 29 times in a game. The Titans were the only team that failed, and QB Mariota struggled at Houston with less than 45% completions and a QB rating of 54.

Teams that out-rushed their opponent by at least 30 yards went 7-2 ATS. That stat guideline is now 32-11 ATS this season. Determine who will outrush their opponent by this margin and control the ball, clock and chains and you’re well on your way to more point spread winners. This has delivered a 75% ATS result on average since the year 2000, with no season below 70%. I have the box scores and data base to prove it.

Big ground gainers in week 4 rushing included:

(Yards/Attempts with straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) results).

Team Rush Yds Attempts SU/ATS Cowboys 193 39 W/W Browns 163 28 L/L Steelers 149 26 W/W Redskins 145 26 W/W Jaguars 136 29 W/W Bills 134 32 W/W

Teams that failed to get their ground game going included:

Team Rush Yards Attempts SU/ATS Chargers 38 21 L/L Rams 41 23 W/W Panthers 49 15 L/L Jets 58 20 L/L Dolphins 62 13 L/L Raiders 62 19 W/W Giants 78 18 L/L

Credit must also be given to defenses and their ability to slow the opponents running game, and that’s part of the weekly handicap in determining running game success or failure each week in the match-up analysis. For the second straight week, the Panthers running game struggled, but this time against a Falcons defense

Efficient Offenses and Yards Per Play

The NFL average for yards per plays is approximately 5.5. Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in week 4:

Team Total Yards Yards Per Play SU/ATS Falcons 571 8.8 W/W Steelers 436 7.9 W/W Cowboys 428 5.9 W/W Bears 408 6.1 W/W Texans 369 5.8 W/W

Note how the yards were accumulated each week, passing vs rushing and if a team was playing from behind and forced to abandon their running game in the second half, any overtime yards and injury impacts during a game.

Struggling Offenses

Some poor offensive performances in week 4 included:

Team Total Yards Yards Per Play SU/ATS Bucs 217 2.8 L/L Dolphins 222 5.2 L/L Saints 275 3.8 W/W Lions 263 4.7 L/L Colts 284 3.9 L/L Rams 288 5.2 W/W

Turnover Troubles and Penalty Problems

Historically, teams that suffer a minus three (-3) or greater turnover differential in a game have little chance to win and cover (7% ATS). Last season, on nearly 40 occurrences and games with a 3 or greater turnover differential, the team on the short end of the turnovers won and covered just one time each. The Jets (3-0), Buccaneers (3-0) and Cardinals (5-1) all suffered turnover troubles with Arizona posting a 5-1 turnover margin for the second straight week. Note too that teams that suffered a minus (-2) turnover margin were 0-5 SU/ATS in week 4, showing yet again that turnover differential is a most important stat in point spread outcomes, yet fumbles are random and cannot be determined in handicapping the games. So instead of being hard on yourself in a defeat with a bigger turnover differential, just move on and evaluate the upcoming games and try to find match-up advantages that can help you get on the right side of more games while locating value in the betting line.

The Jaguars overcame 11 penalties for 145 yards to beat the Colts in London, 30-28. They out-gained and outrushed the Colts 136-94, setting up a winner for us. The Titans (11-93), Ravens (10-95), and Lions (10-76) were not as fortunate with their penalty problems.

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis.