NFL Handicapping – Double Digit Home Underdogs

NFL Handicapping – Double-Digit Home Underdogs Provide Strong ATS Betting Situation

On Monday, October 28 another rare betting situation presents itself when the St. Louis Rams host the Seattle Seahawks. For bettors not comfortable betting on ‘bad’ teams, this game looks simple enough to pick the winner and by a one-sided score.  Seattle is proving to be a top team this season, and at 6-1 they are also leading the NFC West division and backing their solid results with strong stat profiles. The Rams have fallen off with a defense that has underperformed, and at 3-4 they are in last place in the NFC West and burning their betting backers going 2-5 ATS. But in this NFL Handicapping Double-Digit home underdogs analysis, you will see some strong situational systems in place for the ugly home ‘Dog.

The betting public sees this as a one-sided game, and over 70% of the bets are supporting the Seahawks despite the big betting line as a road favorite. For just the second time this season, a NFL home underdog is taking at least 10 points. The Bills covered the 10′-point line in week 1 in Buffalo in a 23-21 loss to the Patriots.

But did you know that over the past 25 years covering over 130 games, double-digit home underdogs have covered the point spread 61% of the time?  In fact, since 2009, double-digit home underdogs have gone 18-2 ATS – see chart below.  You may recall some of these results, and bad home teams taking back big points. Clearly some of these ugly ‘Dogs brought some fight to the game, and in 5 of these last 20 situations, the double-digit home underdog has won the game out-right!  So before you take off the rubber band and step up to the window with the Seattle Seahawks, know that history shows the percentages are not in your favor for a winning result.

I have provided a detailed game analysis of this Monday night match-up at VegasSportsZone.com.  While the Rams do not match-up well along the line of scrimmage vs. the Seahawks, and St. Louis is now starting their backup QB, the situation and system supporting big home underdogs must be considered and understood.

Since 2009, NFL double-digit home underdogs are 18-2 ATS.  Bold indicates double-digit road favorite that covered point spread

 

Date	Away Team	Home Team	Score	Line	ATS Winner
12/6/2009	San Diego	Cleveland	30–23	14	Browns
12/10/2009	Pittsburgh	Cleveland	6–13	10	Browns
12/13/2009	New Orleans	Atlanta	26–23	10	Falcons
12/20/2009	Houston	St. Louis	16–13	14	Rams
12/20/2009	Arizona	Detroit	31–24	14	Lions
1/3/2010	Baltimore	Oakland	21–13	10	Raiders
11/21/2010	Baltimore	Carolina	37–13	13	Ravens
1/8/2011	New Orleans	Seattle	36–41	10	Seahawks
9/18/2011	Green Bay	Carolina	30–23	10	Panthers
9/25/2011	Pittsburgh	Indianapolis	23–20	11	Colts
10/23/2011	Green Bay	Minnesota	33–27	10	Vikings
10/24/2011	Baltimore	Jacksonville	7–12	10	Jaguars
10/30/2011	New Orleans	St. Louis	21–31	13.5	Rams
11/27/2011	Pittsburgh	Kansas City	13–9	10.5	Chiefs
12/18/2011	Green Bay	Kansas City	14–19	11.5	Chiefs
1/1/2012	San Francisco	St. Louis	34–27	12.5	Rams
11/25/2012	Denver	Kansas City	17–9	10	Chiefs
12/6/2012	Denver	Oakland	26–13	10	Broncos
12/23/2012	New England	Jacksonville	23–16	14	Jaguars
9/8/2013	New England	Buffalo	23–21	10.5	Bills
10/28/2013	Seattle	St. Louis	??	13.5