NFL Handicapping – Betting Early Season Underdogs

Betting Early Season Underdogs And Noting Line Adjustments

Week 1 saw some serious success for underdog bettors and the sportsbooks cashed in as the betting public supported the favorites.  Underdogs went 11-5 ATS on the closing line, but 2 games landed at or between the opening and closing line.  Shopping is always important and I was watching the games last week at a Las Vegas sportsbook when I heard a number of bettors bemoan the Raiders late TD to lose by 5.  Those Jets ‘square’ bettors who laid 6-points got everything they deserved, as  New York was available for weeks before Week 1 kickoff at less than 5-points.

On to Week 2 and we see the public is still supporting favorites despite solid situations pointing to many underdogs.   Week 2 is often met with over-reaction to Week 1 results and performances, and clearly the public is not interested or comfortable betting the Rams, Browns, Jaguars, Giants, Chiefs, Raiders or Bears following their Week 1 performances. No surprise that those teams are on the ‘fade’ list of many bettors this week, but history tells us some of these ugly ‘Dogs will bounce back with a strong bite this week.

Perhaps it’s no surprise that the following teams are taking a majority of the bets according to Sportsbook Spy this week.

• New Orleans -6.5 (85%)  at Cleveland
• Seattle -6 (83%) – at San Diego
• New England -6 (78%) at Minnesota
• Denver -12 (76%) – vs Kansas City
• San Francisco -7 (75%) vs Chicago
• Arizona -2.5 (74%) – at NY Giants
• Green Bay -7.5 (72%) vs NY Jets
• Houston -3 EV (70%) at Oakland

 

Remember this: The NFL is a contrary sport.  You should not be surprised at the results, as the talent level across the board is so much more even than the college game.  Money-line wagers on underdogs should always be considered along with your underdog bet in competitively lined games ( 6-points or less ). Last week 6 underdogs won outright, and all 6 were lined at 6-points or less.

I analyze the match-ups and situations when handicapping each contest and sort through the stats and statistical indicators.  As we try to gain an edge in the fundamentals and match-ups, know that the betting line is always of importance and more significant in the NFL with tighter and smaller point spreads.  But you must still understand that there is a certain level of contrary thinking involved in betting and beating the NFL, and underdogs who had a bad week or two but remain healthy and interested are often a contrary candidate to bounce back with a better effort.

Plenty of injuries to analyze each week, and while the Rams remain uncertain with their starting QB and the Vikings play without star RB Adrian Peterson in Week 2, history tells us that supporting early-season underdogs is more often the value and prudent play .  Two ugly underdogs who fit a proven and profitable early-season profile with road ‘Dog parameters are the Jacksonville Jaguars and St. Louis Rams.  You can get the specific details of this proven and profitable situation and system when you Become a member for as little as $19.99/month.  Enjoy access to all articles with additional content and exclusive ATS information.   Sign-up soon and you’ll receive the specific ATS parameters to net you more winners through Week 3 of the NFL season.

Week 2 is always one of my favorite weeks of the season when betting the NFL.  I have another huge card available this week and all Top Play Members receive the entire card – all NFL plays Sunday and Monday.  Recall that in 2009 I went a perfect 10-0 in Week 2 – all documented and provided to personal clients with written analysis of every game posted publicly.  Join me for a value price and another week of winners as we shoot for more birdies and green on the gridiron.

All members are reading the rest of this article and enjoying the opportunity to profit from my experience and well-rounded game in providing winning sports and betting information.  Become a member and get additional detailed ATS situations along with access to all articles and content provided by FairwayJay and the Vegas Sports Zone contributors.