NFL Handicapping – Analysis of Winning Wagers

Eagles offense breaks out – My Analysis Of Winning Wagers

I’ve mentioned previously that I write-up at least 20 CFB and NFL games per week for various websites, clients and personal sources. Not all these games are necessarily worthy wagers, but by digging deeper into the match-ups, stats, situations, impact injuries and more, we’re better able to identify games and match-ups of interest.

We’re having solid winning seasons in both college and pro football, and in two of the past three weekends Members have enjoyed 6-1 Top Plays going 12-2 over those two weekends. I’m also 19-5-1 ATS and in the Top-10 of 1,727 entries in the SuperContest at the LVSuperBook.

As part of our 4-1 Sunday in Week 5 that included 2-0 Top Plays on the Eagles and Redskins, we added our only total play with a winner and analysis ‘over’ the total as the Eagles soared to a 39-17 win over the Saints with over 500 yards offense. We released the Eagles play to Members at the best number -5 and Philly took tons of money closing at -6.5, and we noted in our analysis the significant injuries along the Saints offensive line. Our lone loser Sunday was a very unfortunate one as the Rams out-gained the Packers and out-rushed them by margin with 191 rushing yards while limiting QB Rogers and picking him off twice. But 3 missed field goals, a pick-6 and 4 Rams INTs in a brutal day for QB Nick Foles including a INT in the end zone and another in the final seconds in the red zone let Packers bettors escape with a very fortunate cover, 24-10.

Here is my game analysis of winning wagers. If you don’t have the time, energy or ability to research the games and match-ups, and proficiency project point spread winners, then profit from my experience and well-rounded game and join the hundreds who have won thousands with Fairways football forecast.

New Orleans @ Philadelphia (-5)

Eagles rush offense has been putrid at 70 YPG and 3.2 YPR against teams that would allow much more. QB Bradford & WR’s have not gelled – yet. But Saints defense has been bad allowing 381 total yards at 6.6 yppl to weaker offenses. Saints did get healthier on defense last week with safety Byrd back along with CB and LB. But didn’t I see QB Weeden lead hurting Cowboys down the field for a late TD (pass!) to tie the game before we got sc$%@%d at the end of regulation and overtime? Eagles defense has been good enough and note they have played 3 of first 4 games on the road and two games now against division opponents more familiar with their schemes. Eagles lost first and only home game, but they are not losing here at 1-3 on the season in another ‘circle the wagons’ game against inferior foe. Thus, teams that win SU in competitively-lined games (6 or less) cover the point spread greater than 85% of time. Eagles win…and cover as Saints got their first victory last week in dramatic fashion and are now traveling and playing Philly at the wrong time. Technicals show 1-3 home favorites less than -10 in Game 5 off a loss versus an opponent off a win are 16-2-1 ATS. Also, Game 5 teams off a loss and facing an opponent off a win, are 22-4 SU and 19-5-2 ATS. Eagles fly and back on track against right opponent traveling East and poor outdoors.

Washington (+7) @ Atlanta

Redskins have a top-10 offense and defense and the league’s No. 1 rush offense and No. 2 in attempts per game. They remain undervalued and could become top team in division, which was laughable before the season. The ‘Skins also have the No. 2 rush defense. That alone is practically an automatic play as ‘Dog, and at this price point a must take against over-heated flying Falcons. Add in that Washington dominated Philly much more than final score and Atlanta was ahead 48-0 last week and you can see why the line is -7 and the public is in love with the high-flying Falcons. But note that Washington has out-gained all four opponents while the Falcons have allowed season-high yardage in three of four games. Like I almost said, an automatic take on Washington as big ‘Dog. BTW – Atlanta is 1-18-1 ATS as home off 3-consecutive ATS wins. Also, new NFL coaches who start the season 4-0 or greater are 1-7 ATS as home favorites in non-division games since 2000

St. Louis (+9′) @ Green Bay

Rams off a big road win against division foe Arizona, and can now knock off another NFC contender this week. St. Louis has played four quality opponents and can clearly hang within this large impost with some good match-ups. Rookie RB Gurley busted out in the second half last week for 144 yards after the break, and the Packers defense is allowing an average of 110 rushing yards at 4.7 YPR (186 allowed by the Bears opening week). The Rams should find some room to run, and sustain drives to keep Rogers on the sidelines more. Note too that the Rams defensive front is solid and their pass defense has been good allowing an average of less than 6.0 yards per pass to teams that hit nearly 7.0 yards per pass. Add in better than 4 sacks per game and they can pressure Rogers and hold him below his averages.

Arizona (2’/3) @ Detroit

Lions on a short week following their 13-10 loss at Seattle Monday. Detroit has now been out-gained in all four games and are the only winless team at 0-4. Along with a clueless coach, the fans and Ford family get what they deserve. Cardinals were regarded as the best team in the NFC going into last week, and their stats proved it even ahead of Green Bay. They feasted on 3 weak teams NO, CHI and SF, and get another layup this week. The Cardinals played a much better team last week, and while we liked St. Louis in the match-up and 22-20 upset, note the Cardinals still out-gained the Rams 447 and 6.3 yards per play to 328. But a 3-0 turnover margin proved fatal (0-13 ATS for teams in this negative 3 TO margin this year). Rams rushed for 164 as rookie Gurley busted out. Lions may try to do the same with rookie RB Abdullah, who leads Lions with just 115 rushing yards. Detroit is one of the league’s worst offenses at 4.9 yards per play while the Cardinals No. 2 in NFL at 6.9 YPPL. Add in Detroit’s league-worst rushing offense at 47 YPG and just 17 rushing attempts per game and you see they are hurting badly at the point of attack. Note too Lions defense is allowing 383 yards per game against Arizona’s No. 5 defense allowing 303 yards per game and you see which team is superior on defense as well. Lions were carved up by two quality QB in Rivers (404) and P. Manning (324), and now face another strong one this week in Palmer (288/game, 10 TDs, 106 QB ration), who is having a better season than both of them. Bruce Arians is 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS in his next game off a loss in his NFL career. .We’ll take our chances with the better team laying a short price on the road against the winless team who can’t find their way.

Eagles/Saints ‘over’ 49

Last week against Washington, the Eagles opened up the vertical passing game with deep strikes from QB Bradford to Agholor (45 yards), Cooper (62) and Austin (39). They were able to stretch the field for the first time this season, and the big-play passing game should resurface again today against a porous Saints defense who allow a league-worst 8.8 yards per pass, and New Orleans also ranks last in the league in pass coverage and 29th in getting to the QB according to Pro Football Focus. But the running game should get untracked. Philly averaged 6.3 yards per play last week (320 yards) on the road against a stronger Redskins defense but were only able to run 51 plays as Washington controlled the clock for 41 minutes to just 19 for Philly.

The Saints have struggled to slow down the run this year, giving up an average of 123 yards per game on the ground, ranking 27th in the league. They allow 4.2 yards per rush which is 13th in the league.

New Orleans currently ranks third in the NFL in passing yards with 1,218 and averages 304/game. In his three games played, Brees has thrown for 969 yards, has a 68% completion percentage and a quarterback rating of 95. The Eagles pass defense has been poor allowing 276 passing YPG, but for this game, the Saints have injuries to three of their starting offensive linemen, Terron Armstead, Tim Lelito and Jahri Evans, so the protection for Brees may be a bit questionable. That’s the lone concern in playing this total ‘over’, as we need to Saints to score some.

A little redemption game as Philadelphia and fans haven’t forgot the 2014 playoff game here when the Saints stole the game late, 26-24. We have a top play on Philly and we’ll play the over as well, as the Eagles look like they’ll soar.