NFL Conference Championship 2024 Odds And Picks

Three games remaining in the 2023 season include NFL Conference Championship 2024 picks followed by Super Bowl LVIII Feb. 11 in Las Vegas. I chip-in Picks-Opinions and Leans again after going 3-3 on our Picks and Opinions in last weeks divisional round.

I also chipped-in a 6-0 results on division round props which I posted in Forbes. I provide NFL Conference Championship 2024 previews and picks in my additional NFL Playoffs coverage in Forbes.

NFL Conference Championship 2024 Odds and Picks

NFL odds, lines, props and live betting odds from leading online U.S. sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens – 3:00 p.m ET on CBS
Line: Ravens -4, Total 44.5
Opinions: Ravens and Under

I bet the Ravens (-3) at opener, and the line moved up to -3.5 and now -4. Additional game analysis on both contests in my conference championship picks at Off Shore Gaming Association.

ATS notes: Teams that won the rushing yards in this years playoffs are 8-2 SU/ATS. It was even better in last year’s playoffs into this conference championship round at 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS. The Playbook Sports newsletter notes that teams coming off consecutive SU and ATS wins who were bounced in a championship game the previous year (San Francisco) are 20-2 SU/ATS since 1985 as either a favorite or as an underdog of less than 3 points versus an opponent off a SU/ATS win (Lions). But one of those losses was the 49ers in last year’s conference championship game when QB Brock Purdy was injured and left the contest in the first quarter. So are passing yards more important? QB-driven league? Teams with more passing yards in the NFL 2024 playoffs are 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS.

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers – 6:30 p.m ET on FOX
Line: 49ers -7, Total 52
Opinion: Under 52 and Lean 49ers

This line is starting to show more Niners -7.5 and the total is up slightly to 52. The 49ers are playing in their third consecutive NFC conference championship game. My matchup edges favor San Francisco, and you can read more insight and analysis in my conference championship coverage in Forbes.

Player Props

I’ve been unable to write up additional player props this week. But I expect 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk to have a big game, and Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs could reward us again with some favorable matchups if it plays out like some of the advanced stats below from Sharp Sports Analysis. Also, RB Christian McCaffrey is likely to have another big game but moreso in receiving and his receptions (4.5) and yards (35.5) are in play rather than rushing against the Lions strong run defense. Also, Niners QB Brock Purdy has averaged a very strong 9.1 yards per pass play in the 15 games he’s played this season without rain after struggling in the rain in lat week’s escape/win over the Packers.

When the Lions have the ball

Outside zone

This season, the 49ers vs. outside zone are allowing:

• 5.1 YPC (#31)
• +0.05 EPA/rush (#31)
• 38% success (#27)
• 11.9% explosive run rate (#31)
• 3.6 yards after contact per rush (#32)

Down the stretch, since Week 10 after acquiring Chase Young, the 49ers vs. outside zone are allowing:

• 6.2 YPC (#32)
• +0.15 EPA/rush (#32)
• 49% success (#32)
• 15% explosive run rate (#32)
• 4.9 yards after contact per rush (#32)

The 49ers have faced very few teams that use above-average rates of outside zone.

The NFL average is 26%.

Pull-lead

The run concept that should have the most success vs. the 49ers isn’t outside zone.

It’s pull-lead.

These are the runs that Jahmyr Gibbs is most explosive when running.

Gibbs gains 5+ yards on 43% of his 30 carries this year from this concept, his most explosive rate of any frequently used concept.

I think the Lions will be in 3-WR sets more frequently than 2-TE sets, both because of the scoreboard as well as the injury to Brock Wright last week.

Most of the time, these pull-lead concepts are run from 11 personnel.

When Gibbs runs outside zone, it’s with fewer than 3-WRs 55% of the time.

But when he runs pull-lead, it’s from 3+ WRs 83% of the time.

They don’t run these for David Montgomery.

Of his 219 rushes this year, only 12 came from this concept, and over 50% of his runs come with fewer than 3 WRs on the field.

Meanwhile, for Gibbs, 60% of his runs come with 3+ WRs on the field, and he’s run pull-lead over 3 times more frequently than Montgomery.

The 49ers defense ranks 10th worst against this concept, allowing 5.3 YPC. But they rank #5 worst in allowing explosive rushes on over 17% of runs against them.

Middle of the field

Jared Goff targets middle of the field more than any other quarterback, a 53% target rate (#1 of 48 QBs).

And the Lions rank #1 in efficiency when throwing to that area of the field.

But on those throws, the 49ers defense ranks:

• #2 EPA/att (-0.03)
• #3 success rate (45%)
• #4 YPA (5.8)
• #1 INT%
• #1 TD%
• 6:17 touchdown to interception ratio