NFL Week 4 Odds And Picks
Betting lines and NFL odds from top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Point spread on favorites plus game totals, and division games in bold.
Seattle (-1.5) at Arizona, 43.5 – Thursday
Minnesota (-2.5) at Pittsburgh 41 – Ireland
Philadelphia (-3.5) at Tampa Bay, 44
New Orleans at Buffalo (-15.5), 47.5
Carolina at New England (-5), 43.5
Washington at Atlanta (-2), 43.5 (favorite flipped)
Cleveland at Detroit (-10), 44
Tennessee at Houston (-7), 39.5
LA Chargers (-6.5) at NY Giants, 43.5
Jacksonville at San Francisco (-3.5), 46
Indianapolis at LA Rams (-3.5), 49.5
Chicago at Las Vegas (pk), 47.5
Baltimore (-2.5) at Kansas City, 48.5
Green Bay (-7) at Dallas, 46.5 – Sunday Night
NY Jets at Miami (-3), 44.5 – Monday Night
Cincinnati at Denver (-7.5), 44 – Monday Night
Picks: Rams
Opinions: Bucs
Any additions Sunday and Monday. More player props below.
3-team parlay: Rams, Vikings, Falcons
2-team ‘Dog parlay: Bucs, Jets
Rushing To The Window
Notable projected rushing edges Sunday favor favorites Bills, Lions, Texans, Ravens, Packers. Teams that out-rush their opponent in a game by 30+ yards are 25-9 SU and 21-13 ATS (62%), well below the historical average of near 75% ATS including the last six years and 74% ATS in 2024 on more than 175+ games. Also, teams that run the ball at least 30 times in a game are 20-4 SU and 18-6 ATS this season, which is historically better than 80% ATS including 82% last season.
Note four teams playing this Sunday have a bye in Week 5 – Steelers, Falcons, Bears, Packers.
Also, noteable lookahead lines for NFL Week 5 include 49ers-Rams (-3) showdown in Los Angeles with a total of 47. The Colts (-6.5, 49) host the Raiders and the Eagles (-5.5, 43.5) host the Broncos in two key interconference games. The highest game total is the Lions (-7.5)-Bengals game in Cincinnati at 49.5 with QB Joe Burrow out.
Stats, ATS And Proven Pointspread Winners
Did you know that in competitively lined NFL games of 6-points or less, teams that win the game are 34-4 ATS (89.5%) this season? The favorite wins and covers a majority of the time or the ‘Dog wins outright. This season again just like historically, high 80% ATS win rate, and another reason to bet the underdog on the Moneyline if you like them, which I did often while hitting 57% ATS posting only NFL underdog picks over a 7-year run at OSGA from 2017-2023 including an 11-1 ATS run in December, 2023. That also included a top of the leaderboard 70% ATS season in 2021, which followed a previous 8-straight winning NFL seasons of 57% ATS winners producing profits and payouts.
NFL Player Props And Picks
Please note that player props odds, yardages and promotions vary more greatly at leading online sportsbooks. Do your best to shop various props, odds and options noting too that last Sunday’s Week 3 winning prop had a sharp move upward on Jahmyr Gibbs and still sailed over his combined rushing and receiving yards. We also cashed our Week 3 posted player prop on Broncos QB Bo Nix under 217.5 passing yards (easy, 157).
Eagles RB Saquon Barkley: Over 16.5 receiving yards
Falcons TE Kyle Pitts: Over 39.5 receiving yards
Packers TE Tucker Kraft: Over 43.5 receiving yards
Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth: Under 24.5 receiving yards.
Advanced stats including those from Dr. Bob Sports notes that the Commanders defense ranks last in the league in receiving yards allowed to inline tight ends this season. Backup safety is likely to struggle against TE Kyle Pitts, who ranks 4th among tight ends in receiving yards from inline assignments.
The Cowboys defense is expected to improve with some players healthy and returning to the lineup after surrendered five explosive passing plays for 201 yards and 385 total yards (6.8 yppl) to the Bears last week in a 31-14 defeat. Dallas has surrendered 6.5 yards per play this season to rank No. 31 in the NFL while the Packers defense is allowing a league-low 3.7 yards per play. But Packers TE Tucker Kraft is rising while averaging a league-high 0.87 EPA per target and he has a favorable matchup finding openings in the Cowboys zone with Dallas surrendering a 59% success rate to opposing tight ends (No. 28 in NFL).
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts completed just 2 passes with 10+ air yards in the first 2.5 games until last week’s second half comeback against the Rams. Dr. Bob sports notes that Hurts ranks 28th relatively against the blitz compared to a standard pass rush, and he was 26th last year. Tampa Bay’s defense has a 43% blitz rate (6th-highest). So anticipate RB Saquon Barkley to be a key in the short passing game, and the Eagles will counter the blitzes and screens. Barkley has a 50% receiving success rate (5th), and the Buccaneers defense ranks 29th in EPA/target allowed to opposing running backs after also ranking 29th in last season.
Our two player prop hit with winners in Weed 3 on Sunday and Monday Night Football.
More NFL coverage each week with information you can bet on.
Twitter
Facebook