NCAA Tournament 2026 Sweet Sixteen Betting Preview

March Madness has played to mostly to form into the Sweet Sixteen for the third straight year. The NCAA Tournament 2026 Sweet Sixteen field has the top seeds in the East and West Regions still dancing with No. 1 Duke, No. 2 Connecticut along with No. 1 Arizona and No. 2 Purdue. Three of the top seeds in the South and Midwest Regions are still alive with No. 2 Houston, No. 1 Michigan and No. 2 Iowa State.

For the second-straight year, 12 of the top 16 seeds made it to the Sweet Sixteen. That includes No. 3 Michigan State and No. 4 Arkansas in the East and West Regions, along with No. 5 St. John’s. In the South and Midwest Regions, No. 3 Illinois, No. 4 Nebraska and No. 4 Alabama are still playing.

Check out my full NCAA Tournament 2026 Sweet Sixteen betting preview with matchups, odds, stats, tips and trends in my NCAA Tournament coverage at Off Shore Gaming Association.

Two longshots have made the Sweet Sixteen – No. 11 Texas, who beat No. 3 Gonzaga in the Round of 32, and No. 9 Iowa, who knocked off the defending national champions and No. 1 seed Florida with a last-secoond 3-pointer.

The Big Ten is the biggest winner into the Sweet Sixteen with 6 teams, followed by SEC (5), Big 12 (3), Big east (2), ACC (1).

Sweet Sixteen Matchups, Odds, Picks

College basketball odds from leading online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on futures, props and live betting. All times Eastern with select picks and additional stats and updates ahead of games. Odds as of March 26, and may differ from openers and posted update at OSGA.

Thursday, March 26

South – Toyota Center (Houston, TX)

– No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 4 Nebraska (-1.5) | Total 131.5 | 7:30 p.m. | TBS/truTV
– No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Houston (-2.5) | Total 140 | 10:05 p.m. | TBS/truTV – Opinion: Illinois

West – SAP Center (San Jose, CA)

– No. 11 Texas vs. No. 2 Purdue (-8) | Total 147 | 7:10 p.m. | CBS
– No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 1 Arizona (-8.5) | Total 165 | 9:45 p.m. | CBS – Opinion: Over

Friday, March 27

East – Capital One Arena (Washington, D.C.)

– No. 5 St. John’s vs. No. 1 Duke (-6.5) | Total 141 | 7:10 p.m. | CBS
– No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 2 UCONN (-2) | Total 135 | 9:45 p.m. | CBS

Midwest – United Center (Chicago, IL)

– No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Michigan (-9) | Total 173 | 7:35 p.m. | TBS/truTV
– No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Iowa State (-3.5) | Total 140 | 10:10 p.m. | TBS – Opinion: Under

Update: Sweet Sixteen Picks/Opinions went 3-0.

Game stats, notes, analysis

Arizona beat SEC teams Florida and Alabama along with Big East UCONN in their 23-0 start this season, and then won the Big 12 regular season and tournament title. Arkansas can score with the No. 5 offensive efficiency rating, just behind Arizona. That includes 191 points in two NCAA Tourney games. However, the Hogs don’t muck it up in the mud on defense with the third-worst defensive efficiency rating of teams left in the NCAA Tournament. They allowed 1.018 and 1.138 points per possession in two games vs. Hawaii and High Point to advance to the Sweet Sixteen. Arkansas lost to Duke, Houston and Michigan State before getting into SEC play, and are 8-8 vs. Quad 1 teams while Arizona is 16-2 vs. Quad 1/1A. The Wildcats are also No. 2 in the nation in 2-point percentage defense and the Razorbacks are 275th. Plenty of stars, upperclassmen leadership along with 2 top, talented freshman on both teams. Arkansas averages 90 points per game and Arizona 86. Okay to play over this high total in a Arizona victory noting in Arkansas’ five recent losses they allowed 111, 117, 85, 90 and 95 points and now face Arizona’s more efficient offense.

Duke 6-foot-5 junior point guard Caleb Foster is a game-time decision against St. John’s. Read more on his impact, and 5-star freshman Cayden Boozer has done well in his absence averaging nearly 14 points and 3 assists in Foster’s 5-game absence. Of course, the Blue Devils have freshman National Player of the Year front-runner Carlos Boozer along the front-line, and big sophomore center Patrick Ngongba returned last game after missing the previous five with a lingering foot issue. But Duke is shooting just 44.3% from the field and 30% from 3-point range over the last five games. Overall, Duke ranks 4th in points per possession on offense while allowing the fewest points per possession on defense. St. John’s ranks 8th in points per possession allowed and can limit Duke more with Big East Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year and Scholar-Athlete of the Year, senior forward Zuby Ejiofor.

Michigan (-9) is the biggest favorite in the Sweet Sixteen, and the Wolverines offensive and defensive efficiency profile remains elite while also No. 6 in effective FG% shooting offense and No. 3 defense and top-5 in both on 2-point shooting percentage with elite shot-blocking on defense. Michigan’s 87.4 points per game is No. 4 in the country playing at a top 25 pace, but Alabama is No. 1 averaging 91.6 ppg into the Sweet Sixteen and top 4 in adjusted efficiency offense and tempo. Arizona, Gonzaga, Florida and Georgia all beat ‘Bama by 10+ points this season, and Purdue by 7. The Crimson Tide can clearly be a volatile team taking nearly 54% of their shots from 3-point range – the highest percentage in the nation. Alabama does rank outside the top 200 in points per possession allowed on defense while Michigan is a defensive dominator.

A most anticipated matchup between Michigan State and Connecticut, and the only contest featuring two NCAA National Champion coaches in Tom Izzo and Dan Hurley. The Huskies (-2) are a slight favorite up from the opener, and the limited return of assist leader Silas Demary last game vs. UCLA is a big boost even less than 100% (ankle, calf). Both teams have top 15 defensive efficiency ratings with MSU top 2 in the Big Ten in scoring and FG% defense. The Spartans also lead the country in defensive rebounding percentage and have the best of it in the back court with lead guard Jeremy Fears, Jr.

The Big Ten is can tied the NCAA Tournament record with either Michigan or Michigan State advancing to the Elite Eight, and break the record if both win on March 27. Three times a single conference has sent 4 teams to the Elite Eight, including the SEC last year from a record 14 SEC teams in the NCAA Tournament.

Iowa State senior Joshua Jefferson (16.4 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 4.8 apr) is still a game-time decision vs. Tennessee after missing last game/round (ankle). I wouldn’t count on him, and he’ll be limited if he gives it a go. Pace will be slow with both teams very methodical and relying on defense with the Cyclones No. 5 in adjusted defensive efficiency and top 5 in forcing turnovers, and Tennessee No. 14 in defensive efficiency with the best scoring defense, FG and 3-point defense in the SEC. Iowa State shoots 3’s very well and hits the offensive glass, but Tennessee rebounds on offense even better and the Vols are top 20 in limiting 3-point shots to fall and a top rebouding margin team.