NBA Handicapping – Laying Road Chalk

Laying Road Chalk – Beating The Bookmaker And The Myth

No team is hotter than the Atlanta Hawks, who have moved up to #2 in the NBA power rankings thanks to a 14-1 SU/ATS run the past month and enter tonight’s road tilt at Boston on a 9-0 SU/ATS streak.  The red hot Hawks have been on our card often as Members have enjoyed the Hawks profit-producing run including our Top Play 20* Big Bertha plays on the Hawks this past week laying road chalk against the then equally hot Detroit Pistons and at home in the Hawks whipping of the Wizards 120-89. Atlanta covered on the road again last night as 10-point chalk at Philadelphia in a 105-87 victory.  That win extended Atlanta’s single-season franchise record to 9-straight road wins.  And the Hawks aren’t just beating up on the weaker teams.  Atlanta is on a 16-4 SU tear vs. .500 or greater teams and have won 9-straight games against the stronger Western conference teams.

It may not seem like the spot to lay the road chalk tonight at Boston with a rising line up to 7.5 points, but you’ll see a proven point-spread parameter below that may help the Hawks extend their streak at least one more game tonight.  Atlanta is clearly playing great basketball with solid shooting, team chemistry and a determined and dominating defense that is tied for the league lead in scoring defense ( 97 PPG ), top-5 in efficiency defense and holds opponents to a Eastern-conference best 43.8 FG%.  Atlanta also has the league’s best assist/turnover ratio.

Road games at Boston followed by tough back-to-back road games at Toronto and Chicago this weekend will make it most difficult for the Hawks to extend their winning streak.  Both the Raptors ( 25-12 ) and Bulls ( 26-13 ) are leading their divisions, as are the Hawks ( 30-8 ) by 4.0 games over Washington.

If you follow me on Twitter ( @FairwayJay ), you know I tweet out many sports and gaming-related items daily.  That includes the recent tweet indicating that NBA road favorites are proving quite profitable this season.  In fact, after last night’s 3-2 ATS night for road favorites in which a pair of teams Miami and San Antonio closed as road favorites after opening as underdogs, single-digit road favorites are now 97-61 ATS – nearly 62% winners!  While this strong profit-producing road chalk play is not likely to continue at such a high-rate, know that there are long-term proven profiles that you can add to your handicapping arsenal that may prove ‘technically’ profitable if you can add in solid match-ups and the right situation.  The Hawks play back-to-back tonight and again Saturday at Chicago, which will be their fourth road game in five nights and a very tough challenge.

However, here is a situation to follow if you want to increase your chances of winning on a road favorite.   A team that is clicking offensively having scored at least 105 PPG in 3-straight games ( like the Hawks tonight ) cover the point spread better than 59% of the time when installed as a road favorite next game ( sample size nearly 400 games ).  If our road favorite is a mid-range single-digit chalk laying up to 10-points, they cash at a greater than 65% rate.  The Hawks may fly again tonight, but don’t be surprised if they take a rest this weekend as their streak comes to a halt against a fellow bird of prey in Toronto against the Raptors and in a very bad situational spot Saturday at Chicago.