Handicapping NBA Early Season Totals

Finding Betting Opportunities – Handicapping NBA Early Season Totals

A consistent pattern is developing with Dallas as projected prior to the season with lots of offense and careless defense.  That shouldn’t change against the Thunder, who have star shooters and a willingness to push the pace and score.

The Oklahoma City Thunder ( 2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS ) host the Dallas Mavericks ( 3-1 SU, 3-1  ATS ) on Wednesday, November 6, 2013. Watch and win on ESPN to see if the Thunder can cover for the first time this season.  Tipoff is scheduled for 9:30 ET from Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, OK.

Line: Oklahoma City -7 l Total 210.5

The Mavericks are in tough here as they battled the LA Lakers last night in Dallas and won another shootout 123-104.  Each of the Mavericks first four games have gone over the total with each total score reaching at least 210 points. Dallas has scored 123, 111, 105 and 118 points.  In their only road game, the Mavericks took 100 shots and hit just 38% in a 113-105 loss at Houston – a game that features the league’s top-2 teams in offensive efficiency.  Both teams shot over 26 3-pointers, and that’s the type of pace and scoring we’re going to see often from Dallas as coach Carlisle rotates and substitutes his players liberally.  No Mavericks player has over 28′ minutes of playing time last night vs. Los Angeles; a game in which Dallas took 80 shots and the Lakers (mis)fired too often hitting just 42% on 87 shots.

While evaluating totals and understanding the linemakers adjustments, we can continue to project much scoring in Mavericks games.  That’s also because the Mavericks don’t possess enough defensive strength to slow down many teams and especially the rested and ready Thunder.  Both the Thunder (9th) and Mavericks (5th) are top-10 in possessions per game with each over 102 per game.  That’s over 5 possessions more per game for Dallas than last season’s Mavericks team.  And note that Houston led the NBA with 100 possessions per game last season.  Dallas is an aging team with Nowitzki, Marion and Vince Carter all 35+ years old. They lack a defensive stopper to slow Kevin Durant, but they will be willing to play an up-tempo game.  Shawn Marion is the Mavericks best perimeter defender. He’ll have trouble handling ultra-aggressive point guard Russell Westbrook and the rotating Thunder guards.  Westbrook;s attacking style forces defenses to collapse at the rim, providing open looks for players on the perimeter – often Durant.

Oklahoma City beat Phoenix 103-96 on November 3rd as star guard Russell Westbrook made his season debut and scored 21 points.  Despite shooting just 42% including 2-18 from the arch, the Thunder eclipsed 100 points and they will reach their season high against the defenseless Mavericks in this match-up. Westbrook is the pulse of the Thunder with his trademark athleticism and energy.  His biggest impact will be improving the team’s offensive efficiency. Through three games, the Thunder has shot just 39.4 percent, third worst in the league. From behind the 3-point line, the Thunder is a league-worst 22.1 percent.  Playing the Maverick’s should cure the Thunders recent troubles.

Dallas has a new backcourt this season with high-scoring Monte Ellis and Jose Calderon, an effective leader at the point.  Star forward Dirk Nowitzki is aging and even slower defensively, but still possesses a solid offensive game and is averaging 20 ppg. He and Ellis should shine in the pick-and-roll as they did vs. the Lakers, as Ellis poured in 30 points with nine assists and just one turnover.  He’ll look forward to the challenge of facing opposing star guard Westbrook.  A look at the Mavericks results show a consistent pattern of many possessions, fast pace and offensive firepower with little defensive intensity.

The Thunder will be fresh and feast on the Mavericks poor defense.  With Westbrook back in the fold, look for the Thunder to push the pace and reach their season high in a expected run and gun shootout.