Mountain West Flying Footballs Saturday Night Nov. 2

Boise State and Fresno State lead divisions – flying footballs Saturday night in Fresno

Boise State at Colorado State

Line: Boise State -7 l Total 60

The Colorado State Rams ( 4-4 SU, 6-2 ATS ) host the Boise State Broncos ( 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS ) on Saturday night, November 2, 2013.  CBS Sports Network will carry the coverage live from Hughes Stadium in Fort Collins, CO with kickoff scheduled for 8:00 ET.

Boise State was beaten badly last week 37-20 at BYU and the Bronco’s allowed 569 yards of offense. The Broncos have played four stronger teams on the road this season and gone 1-3 SU and this is a bad travel and situational spot off the BYU game last week. Despite the perceived strength of the Broncos, Boise State has burned their betting backers the past 2 years going 5-13 ATS in their last 18 conference games.  However, in the past two seasons, Boise State has crushed Colorado State by the scores of 63-13 and 42-14.  Look for a focused and determined effort from Colorado State as they Ram the Bronco’s at the point of attack. Colorado State averages 182 rushing ypg while Boise State allows 162 rushing ypg.

Boise State is 3-1 in the Mountain division while CSU is 2-1.  This is not the dominating Boise State team we’re accustomed to seeing, and the Broncos are allowing 24 ppg this season and 415 ypg; just slightly better than Colorado State’s defense (447 ypg).  The Rams also have the better rushing defense statistically, allowing 137 ypg. Colorado State struggles are with pass defense, as they allow 310 passing ypg, but Boise State has had to turn to backup QB Grant Hedrick following senior QB Joe Southwick’s broken ankle injury October 19 vs. Nevada.

Technically speaking, Colorado State is 7-1 ATS their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 7-1-1 ATS their last 9 games on FieldTurf. The Rams are also 6-1 ATS their last 7 games overall.  Colorado State overcame a tough travel situation last week and won at Hawaii 35-28. Returning home and still undervalued while going 6-2 ATS this season, look for the Rams to bring a strong effort and battle Boise State close into the fourth quarter.

 Nevada at Fresno State

Line: Fresno State -20 l Total: 73.5

The Fresno State Bulldogs ( 7-0 SU, 2-5 ATS ) host the Nevada Wolf Pack ( 3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) on Saturday, November 2, 2013.  This Mountain West games features the undefeated Bulldogs ranked #16 and pushing towards a BCS bowl game. Watch and win on ESPNU as the under-rated Bulldogs blitz the Wolf Pack in their all black uniforms with plenty of flying footballs Saturday night Nov. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30pm ET from Bulldog Stadium in Fresno, CA.

Fresno State escaped in overtime last week 35-28 at San Diego State to remain undefeated. They were also out-rushed 170-43 and out-gained by the Aztecs 507-341. But Fresno State will have little trouble piling up the points against Nevada, as the Wolf Pack are the league’s worst defense allowing nearly 500 ypg at 7.1 yards per play. Nevada has the second-worst defense against the run allowing over 6.2 ypr and 264 rushing ypg in league play.  Nevada’s pass defense allows 66% completions and is not tested as much due to teams running so well on the Wolf Pack. But now Nevada will face the league’s top passer, as Fresno State QB David Carr leads the Mountain West Conference with over 2,500 passing yards and 25 TD passes.  The senior QB has led Fresno State to at least 38 points scored in all four home games this season, and now can tear through Nevada’s poor defense and secondary which ranks last in the league in passing yards allowed (310 ypg). Well aware the Bulldogs are e 0-4 ATS at home this season, but the Wolf Pack are 1-3 ATS on the road.  The fact that Fresno State also allows 432 ypg and is nearly as bad against the pass (286 ypg) indicates that there will be plenty of flying footballs Saturday night Nov. 2.

Nevada comes off a rivalry loss last week in Reno to UNLV 27-22. The emotion of that loss combined with poor defensive play sets them up to be slaughtered this week in Fresno. Nevada is winless on the road and has allowed 34, 51, 62 and 58 points in those four road losses with an average margin of defeat of 29 points.  Nevada lost to Fresno State last year at home 52-36 and allowed 281 yards rushing. It could be worse Saturday as Fresno State holds nothing back in their pursuit of style points in the BCS polls. Fresno State leads the league in sacks led by Ejiro Ederaine and has the league’s #2 pass defense to slow Nevada’s lone strength in the passing game.  The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS vs. teams with a losing record and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 conference games.  Nevada is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 conference games and 6-13-1 their last 20 games on FieldTurf.

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