Monday Night Football Handicapping Week 9

Monday Night Football Handicapping Week 9 – Chicago at Green Bay

Line: Packers -10.5 l Total 50

The Green Bay Packers ( 5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS ) host the Chicago Bears ( 4-3 SU, 1-5-1 ATS ) on Monday, November 4, 2013.  Kickoff for this division rivalry is scheduled for 8:40 ET from Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI.  ESPN will carry the TV coverage live and this will be the most watched and biggest bet game of the weekend. This is the only game on the week 9 schedule featuring two winning teams. Much is on the line as the Packers (5-2) now sit atop the NFC North following their 4th straight win while the Bears (4-3) are just a game back and battling for the division lead along with the Lions (5-3). The Bears are without injured QB Jay Cutler (groin), who is 1-7 against the Packers.  Veteran QB Josh McCown will make his season starting debut in this Monday Night Football handicapping week 9 game.

The Packers are playing without their star LB Clay Matthews, a strong edge rusher. While Green Bay has been getting some solid man coverage in the secondary, this will be their toughest test against the Bears talented receivers and skill players. The Bears figure to get the ball in the hands of RB Matt Forte often. McCown and the Bears enter off a week of rest and preparation, and the offense should still be in good hands with star players catching veteran McCown’s passes. McCown led the Bears to 24 second-half points at Washington after QB Cutler was hurt with a groin injury.  You may recall that McCown was also the QB when the Bears lost at Green Bay 35-21 in 2011.  Running back Matt Forte will be key in this contest, but the Bears should have some big plays downfield with WRs Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery.  Marshall is a star and is often double-teamed; making room for Jeffery to emerge again with his great on-ball adjustment skills and deep threat averaging 17 yards per catch. Running back Matt Forte averages over 110 ypg running and receiving, and TE Martellus Bennett gives the Bears another big target in coach Trestman’s Posse personnel packages.

The Packers have won the last six games in this oldest of rivalries while covering five ATS. Green Bay has also won 18 of their last 19 regular season games at home while going 15-4 ATS. But while this line is seemingly high and taxed a bit on the Packers, the Bears defensive injuries are a major concern against a team that can expose them with the NFC’s best quarterback.  Green Bay enters off an impressive performance against the Vikings, albeit against a poorly-coached and putrid purple defense that allowed 44 points. The Bears defense is under-performing statistically allowing 391 ypg and NFC-high 6.2 yards per play, and the additional losses make it tougher and the early-season big plays on defense and creating turnovers are much less frequent.

Green Bay’s offense has been bolstered by the emergence of rookie RB Eddie Lacey the past month, as he’s averaged 99 rushing ypg during October and has given the Packers a sustainable ground game that surprising to most is averaging 4.8 ypr and 141 rushing ypg to rank #3 in the NFL. Lacey’s a big back with marginal speed and quickness, but he’s been a workhorse averaging 24 carries per game during the Packers 4-game winning streak. All-Pro quarterback Aaron Rogers operates out of the shotgun and will likely pick apart a Bears defense underneath and the Bears zone-based secondary. Chicago is without star LB Lance Briggs (shoulder) for perhaps another month and LB D.J. Williams (torn pectoral) is now out for the year. Veteran LB and student of the game James Anderson will start at LB alongside two rookie linebackers, and the Bears are already playing without two starting defensive tackles who suffered injuries including elite franchise player Henry Melton.  The pass rush is poor, and QB Rogers should have a another big night despite the absence of WR Randall Cobb and TE Jermichael Finley.

Despite the Bears missing some key players and QB Cutler, expect QB Josh McCown to perform well with his solid skill players and offensive line.  While I initially looked to be stronger on the Bears as big rivalry ‘Dog off a bye, I’ve softened my stance and feel the the better play appears to be over the total with so many defensive injuries and big play players on both teams offenses. The Packers are the NFC’s #1 offense averaging 439 ypg and 6.5 yards per play despite a minus (-2) net turnover differential. Note that the over is  6-1 in the Bears last seven games vs. the NFC, and Chicago has scored at least 32 points in all three of their road games this season.  Series history shows the Packers on a 5-0 ATS run over the Bears along with 6-straight victories, and 9-1 under the total the last 10 meetings. The weather forecast calls for overcast skies, mid-40’s temps and winds near 10mpg.  Let’s hope the 50% chance of precipitation doesn’t rain on our opinion in support of the Bears and additional lean over the total at Lambeau Field.

 

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