Monday Night Football Handicapping Week 7

Monday Night Football Handicapping – Minnesota at NY Giants

A battle of the bottom feeders is not what the networks had in mind when they scheduled the Vikings (1-5 SU/2-3 ATS) vs. the winless Giants (0-6 SU/1-5 ATS). I’m quite pleased with the Vikings play this season as I had Minnesota as my biggest betting recommendation before the season – under season win total. Minnesota coach Leslie Frasier has to be considered on the hot seat and for good reason, as he and his staff are among the worst in the NFL. While coach Coughlin may be nearing the end in New York, he’s accomplished much more with two Super Bowl titles and his staff is clearly superior to the Vikings. The Giants also enter this Monday Night Football contest off a ‘mini’ bye following their Thursday night loss at Chicago on October 10, 2013.

The Vikings have apparently decided to put QB Ponder on the bench for an extended time, as newly acquired QB Josh Freeman will make his debut for Minnesota on Monday Night Football.  While some of the pieces appeared in place for continued success following the Vikings playoff berth last year, QB play has continued to be an issue.  Freeman will have a chance to attack a Giants defense allowing nearly 400 yards per game and opponent QB rating of 97.  The overall defensive numbers for the Giants are not terribly bad considering New York is winless at 0-6, yet they have allowed at least 27 points to every opponent and a league-high 209 points.

A look at the schedules shows the Giants have faced a tough slate including four winning teams plus 3-3 Carolina and 3-4 Philadelphia. They have been beaten badly by undefeated Kansas City (7-0) and previously unbeaten Denver following the Bronco’s first loss last night.  New York plays just their 3rd home game of the season and Monday Night Football sets the perfect stage to break through with their first win of the season. Recall this team won the Super Bowl less than two years ago; their second championship in five years.  Minnesota has far less excuses with bad losses to Carolina and Cleveland at home along with road losses vs. division opponents Chicago and Detroit. The Vikings only win was in London vs. previously winless Pittsburgh. Minnesota’s defense has regressed and underperformed, ranking #31 in the league allowing 418 yards per game and 49% on 3rd downs. The Vikings enter off their worst loss of the year last week; 35-10 at home to the Panthers. In that contest, Minnesota ran the ball just 13 times while Carolina pounded the ball at the Vikings worn down defense 39 times.

On offense, the Vikings clearly lean on the league’s best running back, Adrian Peterson. He’s nursing a hamstring injury but stil averaging 4.7 ypr this season. Yet the Vikings rank right in the middle of the league averaging 113 rushing ypg. Considering the opposition, the offensive line and overall production of the Vikings offense is also sub-par. Now strong-armed QB Freeman will be forced to quickly develop a rapport with his WR’s and offensive line.  We would expect to see plenty of running plays for the Vikings, but production could be lacking further if star left tackle Matt Khalil (back) doesn’t make kickoff. The Giants defense has performed pretty well considering the opponents faced with stronger running games. However, their pass defense could suffer again tonight as a trio of defensive backs are on the injury report while listed as questionable.

The Giants and QB Eli Manning should have plenty of success attacking a Vikings secondary allowing 308 passing ypg, 7.5 yards per pass attempt and 66% completions. That was before Minnesota’s best defensive back and starting safety Harrison Smith was injured. He’s now out with a turf toe injury. He also had the only interceptions (2) by anyone in the Vikings secondary. Also note that the Vikings have allowed a league-high 13 TD passes.  All those alarming numbers are even worse when factoring in the opponents and QB’s faced, as those teams passing offenses average less than 260 passing ypg.

Well aware the Giants have the NFC’s worst running game, averaging just 67 rushing ypg and a league-low 17 rushing attempts per game. They are thin at RB, but a patchwork offensive line has had problems producing and in protection.  But of all their stats this season, the most disturbing is turnovers. The Giants have a league-high 23 giveaways and by far the worst turnover differential at -16.  The next closest in the NFC is -3.  The Giants have at least 3 turnovers in every game this season. Tonight I’ll call for that streak to end.

New York QB Eli Manning has a league-high 15 interceptions; the same number he had all of last season. He’s only completing 53% of his passes, but his 286 passing ypg and 7.5 yards per pass attempt are very good. He’s often under pressure and playing from behind, so we must evaluate ‘garbage’ yards and meaningful yards passing as well. Still, the Giants have a skilled and talented receiving core, and the trio of Nicks, Cruz and Randall should be solid and productive in this match-up. Manning and the offense have to be looking forward to facing the Vikings soft secondary, and Monday Night Football sets the ideal stage for the Giants to break through big with their first win of the season.