Monday Night Football Handicapping Week 5

Monday Night Football Handicapping NY Jets at Atlanta

Monday Night Football week 5 features a big home favorite as the Atlanta Falcons ( 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS ) host the NY Jets ( 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS). The Falcons are a 10-point choice with the total set at 44.  The Jets have scored just 68 points but have managed to cover the point spread in three of their opening four games. That’s due to a dominating defense allowing 283 ypg to rank #2 in the NFL along with a league-best 4.3 yards per play. A win over the Falcons would move the Jets within one game of AFC East division-leading New England. All three AFC East teams lost Sunday, so the Jets have a chance to makeup ground on all division opponents.

The Falcons are near must-win early in the season as Atlanta is falling quickly out of the NFL South division race with the Saints now 5-0. Part of the problems for the Falcon’s is their lack of balance on offense, as offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter has dialed up plenty of passes for QB Matt Ryan and his talented receiving core. The Falcons run the ball an average of just 18 times per game through four contest; only the Giants and Steelers run the ball less. Perhaps missing RB Steven Jackson since he left the game with injury in week 2 has impacted the Falcon’s commitment to run the ball.  The Falcons average 82 rushing ypg, and 4.4 yards per rush is above league average but there has been little commitment to the running game.

Meanwhile, the Jets are averaging 123 rushing ypg and 31 carries per game.  With the Jets defense allowing just 79 rushing ypg and 3.0 ypg, it appears the Falcons could be grounded again Monday night. So can the Jets’ pass defense slow the air assault by the Falcon’s?  New York has not forced a turnover their pas three games, New York is allowing 203 passing ypg, but their 51% completion against is league-best and 6.2 yards per pass play is among the league leaders on defense.  The Jets also have 14 sacks. Must note that the Jets opponents all rank in the bottom half of league offensive yards per game, and that includes the Patriots. The Falcons enter #5 in the NFL averaging 398 ypg and among the league-leaders at 6.2 yards per play.

The fundamental stat profiles still point to the underdog, as the Falcon’s are also being priced like last year’s #1 NFC seed.  Atlanta was in a solid spot last week but still lost at home to the Patriots 30-23. The Falcons have allowed at least 23 points in every game and have faced three below average offenses. But situations and systems support Atlanta, as the Falcons are 16-1 SU & 12-5 ATS off a loss at home with QB Matt Ryan in charge.  Add in coach Mike Smith’s 16-0 ATS mark in games off a loss of 6 or more points, and you’re betting on the birds to bring their best in this situation and game.

The problem in support of the Jets is rookie QB Geno Smith has not shown enough promise or poise to feel confident, as his mistakes and decision-making can be costly. They did last week when Smith had two INT’s and two fumbles that led to 28 points for Tennessee in a 38-13 lopsided loss to the Titans. The Jets slightly out-gained and out-rushed the Titans, but turnovers once again proved very costly to a team and the Jets are 0-2 SU on the road. Still, Smith has a strong-arm and his yards- per-pass is solid with the Jets averaging 7.1 yppa to the Falcons 7.3 yppa. However, he’ll be without his top-2 receivers for this game as Santonio Holmes and Stephen Hill are out with injuries. Smith has tossed 8 INT’s to just 4 TD’s; representative of his lack of awareness and suspect decision-making. The situation with the WR’s along with the Jets preferred mode of travel on the ground makes this a ball-control game plan for New York. Especially after watching film of the Patriots running the ball 31 times for 132 yards in a victory over the Falcons last week.

The Jets appear to have some value on their side as a defensive ‘Dog, and some situational systems also support New York.  But I’m not betting on the Jets. An opinion only on the total going ‘under’ 44 is the preferred play.

@FairwayJay