MLB Post All-Star Break Betting Situations

Winning Teams and Contrary Baseball Betting Situations

The 2018 All-Star break has arrived and Nationals Stadium in Washington, DC will host the 89^th All-Star game July 17. Some historically strong performances highlighted the first half of the season as four American League teams played at least .600 baseball – Boston Red Sox (68-30), New York Yankees (62-33), Houston Astros (64-35), and Seattle Mariners (58-39). The Chicago Cubs (55-36) enter the All-Star break with the best record in the National League playing just under .600 baseball having won 12 of their last 15 games.

These teams along with the LA Dodgers and a few other winning teams are going to be popular bets the second half of the season. But like the hype that surrounded the LA Dodgers, Washington Nationals and Cleveland Indians prior to the season, waging on winning teams from last year that have high expectations entering the season is not always a winning bet. In fact, the Dodgers, Nationals and Indians have been big money burners thus far in 2018 (all 3 teams more than 12-units in the red), and even the dominant world champion Houston Astros have lost more than 12-units at home this season while just near break-even overall from a wagering perspective despite a 64-38 record. Boston, New York and Houston are not only three of the top five teams in scoring this season, but also top-5 in pitching earned run average (ERA). The Red Sox lead the majors in scoring with 5.41 runs per game and the Astros have the best pitching and ERA in baseball at 2.94.

Last season I cautioned laying big prices when betting on the two best teams in the second half of the season and both the LA Dodgers and Houston Astros lost money after the All-Star break despite playing winning baseball and finishing with more than 100 wins on their way to meeting in the World Series. The Dodgers were playing record-setting baseball into the end of August winning at a better than .700 clip for the season. Yet remarkably, Los Angeles would lose 16 of 17 games starting August 26 and bury bettors who continued to ride LA’s hot hand that most thought “could not lose.”

Many of those same bettors thought the Houston Astros could not lose on Sunday, July 15 on the final game before the 2018 All-Star break. Bettors came in with bands of Ben Franklin’s betting Houston from the -325 opener to greater than a -400 favorite against the Tigers. Final score: Detroit 6, Houston 3. Another lesson learned (I hope) for those that can’t help themselves and continue to lay big prices, as this is not the way to beat baseball.

When betting moneylines at the leading online sportsbooks following the All-Star game, the tendency of many baseball bettors is going to include betting against the losing teams and also betting on the very best teams.

Here is a contrary situation to note with positive return on investment (ROI) that supports betting on a losing team at home the first game after the All-Star game.

• Since 2004, sub. 500 teams that are a home favorite have gone 39-13 with a ROI of 30%. The average line on these home teams is approx. -137.

Losing teams as home favorites come out firing in the first game following the All-Star break. A contrary but proven, statistical and factual situation that belies what many bettors believe.

Here are the losing teams (<.500) that are at home the first game after the All-Star break. Check moneylines when posted.

American League                                       National League

Toronto Blue Jays (vs. Baltimore)           Cincinnati Reds (vs. Pittsburgh)

Kansas City Royals (vs. Minnesota)

Detroit Tigers (vs. Boston)

Texas Rangers (vs. Cleveland)

You will need to do a little research and check which teams are home favorites, and then handicap the game further while evaluating starting pitchers, injuries and added stat profiles and changes prior to the games.

Here are a few more simple base situations that produce positive results and return on investment (ROI) on the first game back following the All-Star game.

• Play against a road team if they lost their last game prior to the All-Star break. ROI +5.1%.
• Play on home team that won their last game prior to the All-Star break. ROI +11.4%. If that team is a home favorite from -110 to -150, it expands to 36-14 and a ROI of 27%.

So you have simple and logical correlating situations based on winning and losing prior to the All-Star break with a line parameter on a home team that increases the ROI.

Teams to watch and consider that won their last game and are home the first game after the All-Star break include: (* = likely favorite, check moneyline)

Detroit Tigers, Chicago Cubs, Washington Nationals

Enjoy the second half of the season as teams push for the pennant. You can use of these situational and technical (patters) parameters as part of your handicapping and arsenal. But fundamentally, continue to dig deeper and evaluate the pitching stats and match-ups, on-base plus slugging percentages (OPS) and identify value in the betting lines.  Combine this without emotional attachment to teams or results and you you’ll find yourself building your bankroll with more hits and less errors. You can bet on it.

Article posted at osga.com