MLB Handicapping – Pitchers to Fade

MLB Pitchers to Fade and Identifying Value in Baseball Betting

The All-Star game is next week at Petco Park in San Diego, and a number of All-Star Week events are scheduled offering more than just a game coming with MLB’s celebration of baseball. I’ve been writing about baseball the past two months and most recently posted an article on pitchers to fade in the second half of the season. As a featured writer for Off Shore Gaming Association, I’ll be providing articles and strategies throughout each sports season with insight and analysis to help you in your pursuit of profit to beat the games.

Betting baseball over the long season is always about identifying value, and while you won’t find it too often laying -220 or better, there are other ways to be creative in your handicapping, research and betting. That can include 5-inning plays on or against pitchers, totals and value plays while understanding ballpark factors, hitting stats, OPS, FIP and other under the surface stats, along with run line wagers. All this can help you gain an edge over the bookmaker while you identify more value when wagering.

This season started strong for many run line bettors, and especially those who supported a few top teams like the Chicago Cubs. Chicago won 38 of their 47 wins (81%) by 2 or more runs into the latter part of June. The Cubs were playing better than .700 baseball and the sports books were getting bruised and battered by all the baseballs and bets on the Cubs including the run line. But as I’ve noted previously, Major League Baseball is a game of parity, and what goes up must come down. In the month of July, the Cubs have buried their betting backers going 1-8. That includes 5-straight losses in which they were favored by at least -165 in each contest. The Cubs have been favored by at least -200 in four of those losses during the current losing skid. So read my article again and ask yourself if it’s ever a good time to lay those big prices? Not too often. In the last three days, two of the four teams laying -200 or greater lost Saturday, 2 of 3 Friday and 1 of 1 Thursday.

Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers have the best record in the American League at 54-35, yet they have lost 8 of their last 11 games and are limping into the All-Star break. The Rangers rotation has gone sour and needs reinforcement. Following another call-up and poor pitching performance Saturday, the Rangers starting rotation has an ERA above 7.00 during the skid and no starter has made it out of the fifth inning in the last eight games. That taxes the bullpen, which is another part of handicapping and allows for 5-inning plays to be added when the sub-par pitchers take the mound for a perceived good Texas team that was definitely due for regression following extended over-achievement.

Trend bettors and chalk eaters have been buried in recent weeks and especially by the home teams. While run line betting has some risk, it can also provide some value and plus prices if you can identify the right match-ups and situation to support. I’ve noted that in the previous 7 years, the run line results have been quite consistent with nearly 70% of all games each season decided by 2 or more runs. But as I tracked this through the second half of June, the results were less favorable for home teams as they won 79 of 123 games (64%) by 2 or more runs. However, road teams have really been profitable winning 98 of 125 games (78%) by 2 or more runs.  You can break that down further by favorites and dog situations, but the exercise is to point out a few different factors noting that the top teams often see the lines rise and offer little value, and that even the best teams like the Cubs are going to have their slumps and losing skids during the course of a long baseball season.

Identify value, pitchers to fade and study the stats including under the surface and hitting, and you’ll get more base hits when betting.