March Madness Betting: Keys to NCAA Tournament Success

Handicapping tips for cashing in on March Madness

It’s time for March Madness and our annual college basketball postseason primers with betting tips and keys to NCAA Tournament success. With Selection Sunday just hours away and the top teams set to make a run to the Final Four, I’ve combined some thoughts and chip-in handicapping insight, stats and profiles with information you can bet on when analyzing the games and betting to win during March Madness.

You can follow some of these additional March Madness links to articles I’ve chipped-in at Forbes about betting the brackets and how to craft your bets with odds, stats and trends to assist you when wagering on the top teams from the SEC and Big Ten along with the Big 12, ACC, Big East, Mountain West and West Coast Conference making up the multiple bid leagues for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

The volume of betting activity at the leading online sportsbooks, who also offer top cash bonuses and March Madness contests, is tremendous at this time of year. The men’s college basketball NCAA Tournament is the largest betting event in the U.S., and industry giant BetOnline has a $200,000 Bracket Madness Contest with a $50,000 top prize and entries for a little as $25. Plenty of other contest and options as you get involved in the massive watch and wager action that provides the most engaging and exciting sports betting action of the year.

NCAA Tournament Tips

Recognizing the strengths and weaknesses of both conferences and teams helps the astute handicappers and bettors come tournament time. But the difference in March Madness is that in the elimination format of the NCAA Tournament, one poor, uneven stretch of play or a scoring drought can quickly end a college basketball teams season. There is no playoff series like the pros, or next conference game for the upcoming week. It’s one-and-done elimination time on the biggest stage with most media coverage during the most anticipated and bet tournament of the year.

The variance of 3-point shooting will cost some teams in the NCAA Tournament and post season play, and help others pull an upset. I’ve already been on the wrong side of this 3-point variance with St. Mary’s (0-for-16) as a top-seed underdog (+3.5) in the West Coast Conference championship game loss to Gonzaga, who was leading by 3-5 points throughout the late stages of the game despite St. Mary’s rare turnover issues and horrendous 3-point shooting.

While there have been rule changes in the college game over the years, the fundamentals of college basketball remain the same when evaluating the teams and match-ups. I have relied on these fundamentals when handicapping and evaluating contests while using statistical and ATS profiles, scheduling, late season situations, meaningful games and match-up analysis. That includes top defensive teams as I outlined recently, and those teams that pressure the basketball and defend with determination.

The Houston Cougars are a defensive dominator and upcoming No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament currently playing in the Big 12 conference tournament championship game vs. Arizona. Houston allows an average of just 58.3 points per game (No. 1 in country) and 38.1% field goal shooting defense (No. 2) joining other top teams and higher seeds in the NCAA Tournament Tennessee (37.9% FG, No. 1) and Florida (39.6%) from the Southeastern conference with both those teams in the SEC Tournament semifinals. Duke (38.6%) is also a top defensive team and playing in the ACC tournament championship game on their way to being a No. 1 seed. St. John’s is another top-15 defensive team allowing just 40% FG shooting, and the Red Storm are playing in the Big East tournament championship game against Creighton, another NCAA Tournament team as ESPN’s Bracketology continues to update through final conference tournament weekend.

Highest Scoring Teams in NCAA Tournament  

Check back as I update more stats and information you can bet on as the major college basketball conference tournaments conclude this weekend and I finalize stats and more keys to NCAA Tournament success.

The highest scoring teams in the NCAA Tournament include: (Ave. points per game)

– Alabama (91.1)
– Gonzaga (86.6)
– Florida (85.4)
– Kentucky (85.3)
– Missouri (84.5)
– Auburn (83.8)
– Illinois (83.8)
– Duke (82.7)
– Arizona (81.7)
– Maryland (81.7)

Keys to NCAA Tournament success

Offense: Scoring and offense continues to get headlines and is imperative for success. In tournament play, you must be able to score and avoid long scoring droughts. But with the top teams playing in the NCAA Tournament, there are more top defensive teams capable defending and shutting down one scoring option. Take the time as able to review the top shooting teams, then break down the tournament match-ups and dig deeper into 2-point and 3-point shooting using KenPom and others sources with efficiency along with pace of play and how those teams fared against other top teams – Quadrant 1 wins and NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET). Stronger defensive teams often force longer possessions and give nothing away, forcing players to make more passes in search of quality shots. Thus, experience is a real plus along with quality point guard play and scoring balance, both from the perimeter and inside with multiple scoring options.

Defense: Teams that play solid defense and minimize turnovers and second chance opportunities will win more games. Defensive dominators are your best bet. Strong defensive teams are often very well coached, and can make adjustments to another teams strength or offensive abilities. I’ll add more stats and updates as the NCAA Tournament matchups are announced and try to note any key injuries, coaches comments and matchup, edges.

Rebounding: One of the most overlooked areas in evaluating teams is their ability to rebound the basketball. The key here is rebounding margin, which goes together with a team’s defensive field goal percentage. Michigan State, playing in the Big Ten tournament semi’s and upcoming No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, joins St. Mary’s in the West Coast Conference and Duke in the ACC are top rebounding teams that are physical, strong and athletic on the boards also create more fouls on the opponent and get to the free throw line more often. Texas A&M and Florida in the SEC, Arizona in the Big 12 and 2-time defending NCAA Tournament champion Connecticut in the Big East are also top-15, and these top teams have the ability to control the boards, rebound relentlessly on offense and minimize second-chance points on defense will go a long way in determining whether a team advances or not.

NCAA Tournament Betting and Added Stats

Other stat profiles and parameters include scoring margin, and I’ll updates those and others stats as the NCAA Tournament brackets are announced.

Top teams in scoring margin:

– Duke (+20)
– UC San Diego (+18)
– Gonzaga (+17)
– Florida (+16)
– Houston (+15)
– Maryland (+14)
– Auburn (+14)
– Texas Tech (+13)
– St. Mary’s (+13)
– St. John’s (+12)
– Iowa State (+12)
– Tennessee (+11)
– Yale (+11)

The difficulty for many handicappers and bettors is breaking down the match-ups with less familiar teams. Evaluating the statistical information, interpreting the data and analyzing how teams and players will perform when facing a different level of class opponent often keeps bettors away from unknown teams. Many will bet on the bigger favorites and name brands without knowing the strength and ability of some of the mid-major teams.

The intangibles of coaching, leadership, experience, team chemistry, injuries and riding momentum are part of the process in uncovering information to assist you when betting.

As you evaluate other statistical profiles and parameters, including assist-to-turnover ratio and net turnover margin, note that teams that take care of the basketball and create better shots with ball movement more than isolated one-on-one play will add to a team’s positive profile and winning ways. Often to produce profit.

The betting line is the great equalizer, and the opening week of NCAA Tournament action most often produces the best opportunity to cash and find value when trying to beat the bookmakers at the leading online sportsbooks.

Stick to some of these ‘Fairway Fundamentals‘ and concepts and you’ll start to see the court more clearly. You’ll be able to identify more positive expectation plays while understanding betting lines and more meaningful stats to help you with match-ups and your pursuit of profit. With some added good fortune, you’ll make more shots and layups and cash in when betting basketball.

You can bet on it.

Originally posted on OSGA March 16.