Issue 7 – Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles – Monday November 26, 2012

The Eagles have lost 6-straight games while also on a 0-5 ATS slide. Philadelphia has been beaten by at least 13 points their last four games and now find themselves a 3-point home underdog on MNF to the 2-win Panthers (2-8). How far have the Eagles fallen? Philly was a 2 point home favorite over the Super Bowl Champs NY Giants on Sept 30.

The long coaching tenure of Andy Reid is coming to a close following a season of high expectations that has turned into collapse and chaos. Chilly temps in the high 30’s along with a hostile home crowd awaits and it could turn unpleasant and ugly should the Eagles fall behind again or continue their very poor play. The players know they have let the fans down and many of the coaches know they won’t be on the team payroll much longer.

In addition to all issues and poor play has been player personnel problems and Monday the Eagles will start rookie QB Nick Foles for the second game and rookie RB Bryce Brown making his first start since high school. All-Pro RB LeSean McCoy suffered a concussion late in last week’s loss to Washington and mistake prone QB Michael Vick is also out following a concussion. Foles passing numbers are awful in his brief playing time averaging just 4.6 yards per pass attempt (83 pass plays) against poor pass defenses. He threw a pair of INT’s on the Eagles first two drives last week. A -14 net turnover margin is yet another problem area for Philly, and if they continue to pass too much it’s a fair forecast to anticipate more mistakes and turnovers.

Very little to like about Philly, and we won’t be backing them despite the big adjustment in price.

The Carolina side may not look too appealing as no team has found ways to lose more games than the Panthers and they burned us badly in last week’s OT loss to Tampa Bay. Carolina is now 0-6 this season in games decided by 6-points or less. But the Panthers have been much more competitive and in their last three road games they beat Washington and had both Chicago and Atlanta beat before last second losses. Carolina’s defense is more improved despite surface stats that most don’t recognize. Rookie middle linebacker Luke Kuechly has been a solid insertion to the lineup since Week 5 and we’ve seen the Panthers defense perform very well in yards per play (yppl) holding Seattle (5.0), Dallas (4.8), Chicago (4.0), Washington (4.5) and the Bucs (4.3) well below league average yppl. Only the Broncos (5.9) had a good day thanks to a big passing performance from the best, Peyton Manning. That’s not a concern Monday Night with Foles at quarterback playing behind a revamped offensive line missing four starters. Both teams total defense (340/350 ypg) and rush defense (118) and yards per play stats are very similar, but the Panthers defense is performing much better over the past 6+ weeks. Panthers defensive coordinator Sean McDermott served the same role at Philadelphia under coach Reid, and Panthers head coach Ron Rivera was also the Eagles linebackers coach, so the Panthers coaches should have some familiarity with the Eagles and their offense.

The positive from yet another disbelieving loss last week was that the Panthers ran the ball 33 times (97 yards), and despite sub-par success they kept pounding the ball at the Bucs very solid defensive front. A similar game plan and production should result in victory against the Eagles, who allowed a somewhat similar ground game and mobile QB to destroy them in last week’s 31-6 loss to the Redskins. Washington ran for 169 yards on 34 carries. Teams that run the ball at least 30 times in victory have covered the point spread over 84% of the time this season (100+ sample size). Few teams that run the ball at least 30 times in a game lose Either SU or ATS, but the Panthers found a way to do it even without turnover troubles last week. Quarterback Cam Newton should have a good game in the Panthers zone-read run/pass option attack and provide better than average offensive production for the Panthers.

Now you have a game plan to work with and some strategy behind your selection if you support the Panthers, who I believe are the percentage side despite the big adjustment in price. I could only advise staying clear of the problems that persist in Philadelphia. Beyond the players and poor performances is a team completely lacking chemistry and cohesion, so no way they get our cash.

Stay on course,

FairwayJay