Issue 5 – Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburg Steelers – Monday November 12, 2012

The Chiefs have let us down enough already this season and we won’t be betting on Kansas City Monday Night when they visit Pittsburgh. The Chiefs strength in running the ball (150 yards and 32x/game) figures to be slowed by the Steelers stop unit that allows just 88 rushing ypg. Pittsburgh enters this contest with the NFL’s #1 defense in yards allowed (262 ypg) and passing defense (174 ypg). Quarterback Matt Cassel is back under center for the failing featherheads and once behind, the bottom tier QB is not capable of bringing the Chiefs back. This isn’t the all-time worst defense that KC rallied to beat at New Orleans. The Steelers stop unit should control the Chiefs offense throughout this contest and drop the Chiefs to 1-8 this season; tied for the NFL’s worst record with Jacksonville.

From a technical perspective, these non-division Monday Night games with big favorites are usually blowouts, as double-digit favorites are 18-0 SU and 15-3 ATS when hosting a sub-.400 team. So despite Pittsburgh’s failures in this big favorite Monday Night role the past five years (0-3 ATS), it’s time to lay it if you’re going to play it. Note too that KC clueless coach Crennel was 0-8 vs. the Steelers as coach of Cleveland and that Pittsburgh is 14-0 SU at home on Monday Night since 1991.

Adding to the Chiefs pathetic play has been off the charts turnover problems. Kansas City leads the league with a negative 20 turnover margin (-20). The next closest turnover troubled team is the Eagles (-11). The Chiefs have 29 give-aways, already surpassing their total from last season. Coach Crennel has now decided to threaten his players with the Romeo rule, saying that the first player to have a turnover against the Steelers will be benched. That includes poor playing QB Cassel, who would them be replace by even less capable Quinn (concussion) or Ricky Stanzi. Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is one of the best and should have no problem creating pressure packages and zone blitz schemes from his strong linebackers. The unheralded pair inside of Lawrence Timmons and Larry Foote will assist in initially slowing the Chiefs running game and put them in a position of weakness to pass.

So can the Steelers control the line of scrimmage and have success moving the ball consistently against a Chiefs defense? Coach Crennel removed himself from defensive duties and the defense is now being coordinated by the linebackers coach. More change and issues for a team with poor leadership and direction. Kansas City’s defense allows 348 yards per game, which does not translate to the 30 ppg they allow; another indication on the impact of turnovers. Since Week 7, the Steelers ground game has become a strength again thanks to the improved play and health of the offensive line. Pittsburgh’s ground game has rushed for 158, 140 and 167 yards the past three weeks while averaging 30 carries per game. Two of those three victories came on the road, and rather than a potential letdown, I would favor the strong momentum to steamroll a weak opponent. Running back Isaac Redmon carried the load in last week’s win over the NY Giants with 26 carries for 146 yards. Leading rusher Jonathan Dwyer returns this week while RB Rashard Mendenhall is still hurting (Achilles). Big Ben is having a MVP caliber season with 275 passing ypg, 16 TD’s, 4 INT’s and a QB rating over 101. He’s spreading the ball to his speed receivers and TE Heath Miller is a top target in the red zone with a team-leading 6 touchdowns. Kansas City’s defense allows a league-worst 8.9 yards per pass attempt with opponent QB rating of 106; also worst in the NFL. If offensive coordinator Haley allows Big Ben reign to roll the pocket and pass more, this game could be a first half knockout and ‘over’ early.

The Steelers are 3-0 at home this season with a 15+ point wins over the Jets and Redskins. Pittsburgh beat the Chiefs last season 13-9 at Kansas City as a double-digit favorite in a division-sandwich letdown spot. Oh, and the Chiefs had 4 turnovers that game with Tyler Palko continuing the poor play at quarterback.

The motivation should be plenty strong as the Steelers can not only close the gap on division-leading Baltimore to one game, but separate themselves in the wild card race by two games over the next closest challengers. No doubt former Chiefs head coach Todd Haley will enjoy the chance to put a pounding on the former team and brass that fired him last season and Haley may allow Big Ben to open up the offense. That’s the only concern for playing under the total, as that was the initial preferred total play but note the line has dropped sharply down to 40 with weather now calling for 75% chance of scattered thunderstorms and winds up to 17 mph.

While some point to a potential letdown following Pittsburgh’s win over the super bowl champs and a first-place showdown on deck when the Steelers host the Ravens next Sunday, note that Baltimore buried another weak AFC West opponent yesterday in their 55-20 onslaught over Oakland. Pittsburgh failed to close out road games at Tennessee and Oakland, but they should have few problems closing or extending at home against the Chiefs with only the weather or their own turnover troubles slowing the Steelers.

Stay on course,

FairwayJay