Issue 4 – Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints – Monday November 5, 2012

The Saints defense is dreadful, and that makes them tough to support as a betting favorite; even at home. New Orleans ranks dead last in the NFL allowing 475 ypg including 170 rushing at 5.0 ypr. That’s over 55 yards per game worse that the next closest Buffalo Bills. How bad is the Saints defense? They have already become the first NFL team to allow 400+ yards in 7-straight games, and once the Eagles reach 238 yards against them Monday night, the Saints will have allowed the most yards through eight games of any defense in NFL history.

As such, we won’t be backing the Saints as betting favorite Monday Night.

Supporting the Eagles is not something we can feel too confident in either. Philadelphia has lost 3-straight games and been out-gained by at least 90 yards in all three contests. While those three games were against .500 or greater teams in the Falcons, Lions and Steelers, note the Eagles dominant running game from last season has been slowed considerably and the Eagles have failed to rush for 100 yards in their last three games. They did however run for 191 yards against the NY Giants and expect them to have plenty of ground game success against the Saints.

But Philadelphia’s problems are prominent and it starts right under center with QB Michael Vick. Apparently coach Reid still has faith in the mistake-prone veteran Vick, because he will remain the starter despite poor on-field play. His confidence can only be shaken although he states otherwise. Trusting Vick is difficult following yet another poor performance at home in the Eagles 30-17 loss to Atlanta last week. Following a week of rest and prep in a role the Eagles have excelled under coach Reid, Philly came out uninspired and beaten along the line of scrimmage by the better birds, as Atlanta rolled up nearly 400 yards offense with a balanced attack. Vick led the Eagles to 256 yards at 4.1 yards per play; sub-par to say the least. Their seems to be a lack of leadership, off field distractions and overall chemistry and cohesion issues.

Philadelphia enters 3-4 and New Orleans 2-5. Neither team is going to the playoffs, although the Eagles hold a flicker of hope. Then you realize Vick is the QB and the defense is adjusting to a new coordinator following Week 7 and you realize the flicker is gone.

The hidden matchup in this contest is the coaching coordinators. Saints defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo understands the Eagles offense and philosophy, as he was the secondary coach for Philadelphia prior to becoming the NY Giants defensive coordinator. When Spags coached at Philly, the current Eagles offensive coordinator Marty Morhinweg was the OC at the same time.

Spagnuola has been criticized by the Saints faithful for his scheme and abandoning a more aggressive blitzing approach by the former defensive coordinator. Expect more Saints pressure and stunts against Vick, which could backfire with Vick’s mobility.

We cashed a big play on Denver last week against New Orleans, but expect a much better effort by the Saints back home taking on a dysfunctional Eagles team lacking cohesion and chemistry. QB Michael Vick will find the bench sooner than later, but after facing the Saints defense he has no more excuses for his performances. Every QB and team has torn through this Saints defense. And that includes the below average ones RG3 and Washington (3-6), Cam Newton and Carolina (2-6) and Matt Cassel and Kansas City (1-7). Those QB’s and teams scored 40 and 27 on this field in victories over the Saints while Newton led the Panthers to a 35-27 win over the Saints in Carolina. Remember, each of those sub-par teams piled up at least 460 yards offense against New Orleans, and those teams rushed for 153, 219 and 273 yards. Then the teams with good or great QB’s had additional big yardage and the Bucs, Chargers, Packers and Broncos all scored at least 24 offensive points against the Saints.

We know the Eagles can run the ball with LeSean McCoy, and even Vick can get his share after he fails to identify an open receiver. He should connect plenty even with his sub-par accuracy as their will be plenty of open receivers. The crowd will be loud, the Saints may try to blitz more often and Vick will scramble and create chaos on broken plays.

The Eagles defense is middle of the pack in total yards allowed stats, and their pass defense is also average despite allowing a league-low pass completion percentage going into the Falcons game. But now they face an elite QB and pass attack, and the Saints know they have to score plenty to have a chance of winning. The offense stumbled at Denver against the Broncos #2 defense in yards per play. Another reason I can’t support the Saints is their league-worst running game averaging just 72 rushing ypg and 3.7 ypr. The Eagles are the percentage play based on the expected running game success. If you’ve watched QB Vick often fail in the red zone and/or turn the ball over often enough, you know how frustrating it can be to bet on him and the Eagles. Philadelphia only has one point-spread cover this season, worst in the NFL, and it was their only game as ‘Dog in a 16-14 loss at Pittsburgh.

But the Eagles are the better team with the better ground game and defense. Clearly the Saints have the superior QB and also better special teams units overall, but I could only endorse betting on the Eagles and it would not be a strong endorsement. The total has more interest although more of a 7-iron swing than a Big Bertha recommendation. Still, the Saints are 5-2 over/under this season with each posted total at least 49.5 points. New Orleans is also on a 10-2 over/under run to the end of last season including 9-0 over/under vs. NFC teams. Note the technical trend as the Eagles are 7-0-1 Over/Under the past six years as a ‘Dog on turf vs. a non-conference opponent. When you consider that Vick has led the Eagles to 17, 14 and 6 points on the road this season, although against two superior stop units, you can perhaps understand some trepidation betting over the total in the low 50’s. But the Eagles should bounce back against the Saints completely deficient defense, QB Brees will be firing fastballs and soft spirals all night and that’s the way we prefer to play it with both teams capable of reaching 24 points in this Monday Night match-up of misfits.

Stay on course,

FairwayJay