Issue 2 – Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears – Monday October 22, 2012

The Bears (4-1) sit on top of the NFC North and enter this division battle off a bye and extra week of rest and preparation. Chicago has the situational edge playing at home off a bye while the Lions travel for the second-straight week and are looking up at three teams in the division as Detroit is 2-3. Gutsy win and rally by Detroit last week as they overcame 16 penalties and a 10-point deficit in the final 5+ minutes, tied the game on a last second-FG and won 26-23 in overtime. Note too that Detroit was off a bye and had their strongest ground game success of the season against a top-10 Eagles defense.

This week it gets even tougher as the Bears defense is elite one of the league’s best allowing 291 ypg and NFL-best 65 rushing ypg and 14 points per game. The Lions are clearly capable of passing the ball with QB Stafford and the one of the league’s most feared offensive players in WR Calvin Johnson. Detroit averages a NFC-best 419 yards per game, but note that includes two overtime games and their 5.7 yards per play ranks #7 in the NFC while the Bears are average at 5.4 yards per play. But with Chicago able to stifle the run and take away the deep passing game with their cover-2 scheme most the game, the Lions will have to work the ball down the field with more patience and precision while avoiding mistakes and turnovers against the Bears aggressive defense that leads the league in takeaways at 3.4 per game and turnover margin at +1.8. Chicago has also forced opponents into the highest INT percentage (6.5%); a stat category they have dominated the past three seasons overall.

Chicago is a methodical offense that prefers to run the ball under new offensive coordinator Mike Tice. They are average in yards per play (5.4) and average overall when compensated for the competition and schedule. The Bears are top-3 in time of possession, so while not as efficient, they do they control the ball, clock and chains while converting a solid 43% on third down. Detroit is converting a sub-par 34% on third down and should struggle more against the Bears top defense and especially if they face more 3rd and long situations. Despite out-gaining opponents by over 80 yards per game and above average from the line of scrimmage, Detroit has been out-scored by 2.2 points per game as their special teams have been among the very worst this season while the Bears have elite special teams units.

Bears running back Matt Forte has had solid success against the Lions with nearly 1,000 yards from scrimmage in 8 games against Detroit. Quarterback Cutler has also posted some his strongest numbers against the Lions with 10 TD’s and just 1 INT in six games vs. Detroit. But the Lions defense is better the past two seasons and balance on offense is key as the Bears passing game from QB Cutler becomes much more effective in play-action once the Bears ground game is established and going well with Matt Forte and Michael Bush. The Bears have a top-10 running game averaging 123 ypg and 4.1 ypr. Cutler had a horrible game at Green Bay but his stats are sub-par with a 7/7 TD/INT ratio, 57% completions and QB rating of 78.7. Cutler has a big-play WR in Brandon Marshall who is averaging 100 receiving ypg. But The Lions defense is improved and actually top-10 allowing 324 ypg and 96 yards per rush.

The bad blood in this division game should show itself as recall these teams were involved in a sideline-clearing fight on this field last year. Expect the defensive intensity to be high and watch the weather as showers and thunderstorms are becoming increasingly likely up to a 60% chance as game time nears Monday Night and winds up to 12 mph. Betting under the total of 47.5 is the preferred play and betting it early should get you the best number.

Chicago has won 7 of the last 8 in this series including a 37-13 win at Soldier Field last November. Lions QB Stafford threw 63 passes and 4 INT’s that game, and he won’t be asked to try that again. Still, with the superior defense and special teams, stronger running game, situational edge and playing at home, the Bears will win and I forecast less scoring than expected.

Stay on course,

FairwayJay