NFL Inside the Numbers Week 8

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers by @FairwayJay

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games in my weekly NFL Inside the Numbers article. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners. Every week during the NFL season I provide my thoughts and insight on my NFL Inside the Numbers column to assist you in your pursuit of profit. Also, listen to my NFL Podcast each week where I provide insight and analysis into the upcoming Sunday games.

NFL Inside the Numbers Week 8 Stats of Notes.

NFL Inside the Numbers Week 8 NFL Favorites went 11-2 straight-up (SU) and 8-5 ATS against the spread (ATS), and are now 84-36 SU and 63-54-2 ATS year to date.  Over/under totals were 8-5 and now 64-55 YTD.   I had a week full of totals but couldn’t hold on with the Chiefs/Browns (39.5) game under the total.  More final minute mixups and unfortunate plays in the 23-17 win by Kansas City. A Big Drive total winner on the Giants/Eagles game easily under the total in New York’s 15-7 win, and fireworks in the fourth quarter produced another totals winner in the Lions 31-30 wild win over the Cowboys. Better fortune and stronger handicapping in the second half of the season is expected in our pursuit of profit. Be sure to listen to my weekly NFL Podcast for insight and info you can bet on.  Week 9 Podcast is posted on Tuesday’s and is up now!

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Betting and beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Turnovers will always have an impact on NFL games and especially against the spread (ATS), as I’ve tracked the impact of 3 or more turnovers for over a decade along with a 2-turnover differential advantage or disadvantage.  After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation.  The Bills (3-0), Lions (4-0) and Falcons (4-1) were this week’s big turnover differential loser, but Detroit became the first team this season to win SU with a 3 or greater turnover differential.  Teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column are now 17-1 SU and 17-1 ATS this season. Teams that are exactly +2 in the turnover column in a game are 21-8 ATS this season including 10-1 ATS the past two weeks.

Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent went 7-2 ATS in week 8 and 16-4 ATS the past two weeks.   For the season, teams with at least a 30 yard rushing advantage in a game are 55-26 ATS. We discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners. For over a decade, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread approx. 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average.

Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point-of-attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, weather and more.

Teams that had strong offensive showings in total net yards and efficient yards per play (yppl) in victory were the Lions (631/8.1), Packers (467/6.4), Broncos (461/5.8), Saints (409/6.4), Bengals (404/7.2) and Cardinals (373/7.3).  The NFL team average yards per play is approx. 5.4. Inefficient offensive teams included the Seahawks (183/4.6 – won!), Eagles (237/4.1), Cowboys (265/4.7), Buccaners (297/4.4) and Patriots (268/4.3 – won!).

Week 8 big ground gainers in rushing included the 49ers (221 rush yds/38 attempts), Cardinals (201/30), Raiders (197/38), Rams (183/34) and Packers (182/42).  These teams went 5-0 ATS.

The Falcons  (27 rush yds/14 attempts), Steelers (35/19), Seahawks (44/15), Buccaneers (48/14), Eagles (48/19) and Browns (57/15) struggled to get their running game going. These teams went  1-5 ATS.  While the game flow, situations and score can impact a team’s game plan and use of the running game,  it’s proven over and over, season after season that teams who fail to commit to the running game or lack consistency in the ability to run the ball and control the ball, clock and chains are more often on the losing side of the ledger, both SU and ATS.

Here are the ATS records of teams that fail to run the ball more than 20 times in a game and those teams than run the ball at least 30 times in a game.  Yards per rush is not as important as controlling the ball, clock and chains. Having a QB that can convert on third down helps, as does having an elite QB at any time, but review these running stats again and use them in your handicapping to see if you can determine which teams will have success running the ball and/or stopping the run each week and which teams will commit to controlling and running the ball.

Through week 8 games, teams that run the ball 20 times or less in a game are a combined 8-47 ATS this season.  Conversely, teams that run the ball at least 30 times per game are 56-12 ATS this season (not including games where both teams run the ball at least 30 times).

We’ll review more NFL Inside the Numbers stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis. Listen to my NFL Podcast posted early each week on Tuesday’s for more insight, analysis and sports betting information.

Stay on Course…
@FairwayJay

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