Handicapping NFL Week 1

NFL Week 1 Betting has some Surprising and Contrary Results

The betting lines have been out for months and Week 1 has finally arrived as the NFL regular season kicks off this week. We’ve seen some significant line movement at the sports books on games as noted below along with some totals moves.

Injuries and player movement effect some of the adjustments, but much of the early NFL lines are predicated on last season’s results and public perception. That’s why Week 1 of the NFL regular season is often contrary, and recall in 2014 there were six outright underdog winners opening week. In 2014, underdogs went 11-5 ATS in week 1, using closing lines.

In 2015, there were nine home underdogs alone in Week 1 and the home ‘Dogs went 4-5 SU/ATS with four outright winners. Two of those came on Monday night, and you may recall all the heavy action the Vikings took as a road favorite at San Francisco, and then fell flat as the 49ers won 20-3.

Last year in 2016, six more losing teams from the year before were made home underdogs. That included the 49ers again on Monday night, and they beat the Rams 28-0. San Francisco finished the year with just 2 wins.

Many bettors struggle to support ‘bad’ teams, even if the value supports such. But the NFL can be very contrary, and to show you the facts and provide some insight into the reality of Week 1 NFL betting, here are some situational outlines to Week 1 wagering.

Teams that won 6 games or less games the previous season have covered better than 56% of their Week 1 games over the last 150+ occurrences. That includes last year when these ‘losers’ from the previous year went 6-3 ATS in Week 1. Dallas and the NY Giants were not included as they played each other last year after both won 6 or less games the year before.

This year’s week 1 teams that won 6 games or less last year include: Bears (+7), Jaguars (+5.5), Bengals (-3), Browns (+9), Rams (-3.5), Chargers (+3.5). The Panthers and 49ers play each other in Week 1.

Another Week 1 parameter to this base situation is: Teams that won 6 or fewer games last year who are a road underdog of less than 7 points are better than 70% ATS (more than 65 occurrences in sample). Last year, these ugly underdogs went just 1-2-1 ATS. This year’s qualifying teams are the Jaguars and Chargers.

Additionally, teams that won 7 or more games last season and are road underdogs of less than 7 points have covered just 35% of their games over the past 100+ occurrences. Five teams fit that profile in Week 1 – Raiders, Colts, Seahawks, Giants, Saints are play against teams in this losing ATS situation.

Heavy adjustments were made in the 10 days leading up to last year’s Week 1 games in the NFL, and this year we’re seeing similar line movement at the sports books. The Patriots and Bills have taken money, and three teams went from underdogs to favorites, Cardinals, Titans and Buccaneers. Cowboy’s running back Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension caused a 2′-3 point drop while Hurricane Irma’s storms have seen the total drop sharply in Miami, and the game between the Dolphins and Buccaneers subsequently cancelled and rescheduled for Nov. 19.

Shopping sports books for the best lines is important, as is anticipating line moves as you become more skilled in making and monitoring point spreads. We’ll address more point spread situations and impact on results in the months ahead, but recognize that while we can’t control the market, we can certainly anticipate lines moves and understand that the Week 1 odds and early season market is more volatile.

Check out the leading online sportsbooks,  including those with reduced juice, and this article posted at osga.com.