Handicapping Key Games in SEC – Oct. 26

Tennessee at #1 Alabama

Line: Alabama -28.5. l. Total 52

Alabama crushed Arkansas last week 52-0 with 532 total yards including 352 rushing yards.  The ‘Tide continues to rise as ‘Bama buries opponents.  In handicapping key games in SEC play, know the price to pay in the betting line is high; especially on #1 Alabama. In the Crimson Tide’s four home games, they have been a betting favorite of 29, 54, 14 and 40 points. Now they are a heavy favorite over Tennessee, despite the Volunteers improved play and impressive upset win at home last week over So. Carolina, 23-21.

In Alabama’s four home games, the ‘Tide has allowed just 0, 3, 0 and 6 points. Over their last 35 home games, Alabama has allowed an average of 7.3 points per game.  Despite the rising lines, Alabama has been able to reward their betting backers by covering the spread at a solid rate. Alabama is 15-7 ATS their last 22 SEC games. Yet this year’s offense ranks #6 in the SEC averaging 460 ypg. The Crimson Tide have just six turnovers to 13 for the Volunteers.

Tennessee is on a nice roll after their biggest win of the season last week over So. Carolina.Tennessee is just 1-2 in SEC play but 3-0 ATS as they also took Georgia to overtime.  First-year coach Butch Jones is re-establishing the culture at Rocky Top, and the Vols are playing better and with more confidence. The offensive line is solid in run blocking as Tennessee averages 201 rushing ypg and 5.1 ypr. The Volunteers defense has very similar stats to Ole Miss, who lost to Alabama on this field 25-0. But the betting line in that game was -14. Clearly the rising line towards Alabama combined with the improved play and confidence of Tennessee sets up some extra value on the Volunteers this week. Tough to sustain strong play week after week, especially in the tight and physical SEC.  Note the road team is 14-3-1 ATS in last 18 meetings between these two teams, and HC Jones’ recent run is 7-2 ATS in underdog role.

#20 South Carolina at #5 Missouri

Line:  Missouri -3  l. Total 53

The  Missouri Tigers ( 7-0 SU, 6-0-1 ATS) continue their strong and surprising run through the SEC this season following a convincing 37-16 win over Florida last week. The Tigers host the South Carolina Gamecocks (5-2 SU, 2-5 ATS ), who lost 23-21 at Tennessee on a last-second field goal.  See if the Tigers can continue their undefeated season on Saturday, October 26, 2013. Over 70,000 fans will fill Memorial Stadium as the Tigers try to remain in first place. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 ET in Columbia, MO and ESPN will carry the coverage of this top-20 SEC showdown.

In handicapping games in SEC action, note that Missouri has moved to the top of the East division at 3-0 and the Tigers currently boast the leagues #2 scoring offense at 42ppg in league play.  Missouri is averaging 466 ypg and 6.6 yards per play which is impressive in three SEC games and rolled up 500 yards offense against the league’s top defense last week in a 36-17 win over Florida.  Missouri has yet to lose against spread and now faces another strong challenge as South Carolina has the league’s #1 pass defense allowing 168 passing ypg.

Redshirt freshman Maty Mauk had a very solid starting debut last week as he passed for nearly 300 yards and accumulated two touchdowns in Missouri’s win. Mauk is a capable runner and passer who was a former 2-time Ohio Player of the Year and Parade All-American. South Carolina’s QB Connor Shaw injured his knee in last week’s loss at Tennessee, and while he is doubtful to make post, know that the Gamecocks have an experienced former starter ready to go at QB in Dylan Thompson.

South Carolina features a solid, balanced offense averaging 223 rushing ypg and 257 passing ypg. But Missouri’s defense is proving to be formidable after holding Florida to just 151 total yards and 2.5 yards per play last week. Even on the road two weeks ago, the Tigers held the explosive Georgia offense to 26 points in a 42-26 win. Adding to Missouri’s chances for another victory are additional injuries to South Carolina defensive linemen Kelcy Quarles and Gerald Dixon last week, who both suffered injuries to their leg and ankle.

Missouri leads the league in turnover margin at +6 while South Carolina is -3, and if those stats continue then Missouri will have a great chance to extend their winning streak.  The Tigers defense remains under-rated, and the Tigers are 4-0 ATS their last four home games and 6-1 ATS their last seven SEC games. but South Carolina boasts a 200 club offense as their balanced attack runs and passes for at least 200 ypg and has faced a very solid schedule. Third straight road game & QB situation plus other injuries make it tougher for ‘Cocks to rise to occasion.  Sooth Carolina just 1-3 ATS on the road this season, but still a big swing in line adjustment from early season.