Fairway’s Football Forecast – NFL Week 9 Underdog Picks And Preview
The Philadelphia Eagles (8-0) remained the only undefeated team when they kicked off Week 9 action Thursday with a 29-19 non-covering road win at Houston. There are three division games in Week 9 action including two first place teams – Bills and surprising Seahawks. The Jets and Lions are both part of our NFL Week 9 underdog picks in division match-ups.
- Buffalo Bills (-11.5) at New York Jets
- Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Detroit Lions
- Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-2)
I’ve got three NFL Week 9 underdog picks below, and they are originally posted at Offshore Gaming Association with analysis and available lines when posted early Friday.
The Bills line has been dropping all week from -13 to -12, -11.5 and even some -10.5 showing on Saturday, but still -11.5 at BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook. .
NFL Week 9 Odds and Betting Splits
#CircaSportsMillion IV 🏈🏆
Week 9 Selections
— Circa Sports (@CircaSports) November 6, 2022
The most popular sides in the Circa Million NFL contest in Las Vegas this week are:
Seahawks +2, Raiders -1.5, Falcons +3, Vikings -3, Bears +5
I chip in additional game previews highlighted below for TheLines.
The Fairway Football Forecast 2022 NFL underdog record stands at 16-14 ATS with 15 outright winners. That follows last seasons 28-12 ATS (70%) record picking only underdogs. The 5+ year record posting picks at OSGA now stands at 146-105 (58.2%).
NFL Week 9 Underdog Picks
The NFL Week 9 underdog picks come with full analysis at Offshore Gaming Association. I’ll update the analysis on these pages later along with any additions by Sunday morning.
Indianapolis (+5.5) at New England – Colts moneyline +200
New York (+11.5) vs Buffalo – Jets moneyline +460
Detroit (+3.5) vs Green Bay – Lions moneyline +160
Buffalo at NY Jets
This line has been dropping and was 13 early week. Now it’s +11.5 across the board. We’ll still bite, as taking double-digits on a home ‘Dog is often for the dregs of the league, like the Houston Texans Thursday in their 29-17 loss, but cover, against the undefeated Eagles. We’ve been ahead of the Jets (5-3) rise and projections most the early season, and come back on Gang Green again this week against the top team Bills (6-1). The Jets allow 311 YPG on defense and even better that past three games. The Bills are No. 3 in total defense allowing 298 yards per game but 383 YPG over their last three contests. The Jets are No. 21 in total offense DVOA and the Bills fell from No. 2 to No. 4 this week. New York’s loss last week was mostly due to QB Zack Wilson’s 3 INT’s despite 355 passing yards on just 50% completions. The Jets still buried the Dolphins and won at Green Bay, and New York also has stronger special teams. The Jets are not a bottom tier team like this line suggests, and oddsmakers know bettors are often on the Bills. The loss of RB Breece Hall (knee) and OL Alijah Vera-Tucker (triceps) hurts, but the Jets traded for Jaguars RB James Robinson to add a boost. Even without those two, New York out-gained New England by 100 yards and 6.7 to 3.8 yards per play last week in defeat.
Monday Night Football and the +3 on the Saints is no longer available at home against the Ravens. We’ll monitor more and decide on game day if we add New Orleans to the ‘Dog log.